MSM · TickerCove

MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Distributionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $120.48 · now $120.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSM has typically landed between $109.55 and $134.59 — a range of −9.1% to +11.7% from the issuance price $120.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($120.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$120.48 · 86% of range

$78.89 low$127.28 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 9.1%

−9.1%worst (p90)+11.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $120.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $120.48 (+0.0%)
typical $121.66 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $116.2–$127.12
90% range $109.55–$134.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−34.5%	−34.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−33.3%	−33.3%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−32.7%	−32.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-20	+37.0%	+0.0%	+38.6%
2009-03-17	+34.6%	−2.9%	+34.6%
2009-03-18	+33.9%	−3.2%	+34.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Mar

65%

+2.3%

n=20

Apr

60%

+3.1%

n=20

May

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Jun

45%

−2.1%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.0%

n=20

Aug

45%

−1.4%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.4%

n=20

Oct

50%

+0.8%

n=20

Nov

65%

+4.0%

n=20

Dec

70%

+0.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-02	Seseri Rudina	director	Sale	1,800 @ $86.83	$156K	−22.8% of holding	+5.1%	+34.4%	6,090	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	22,870 @ $84.96	$1.9M	+1.0% of holding	−1.1%	+13.9%	2,328,192	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13	PELLER PHILIP	director	Purchase	6,666 @ $90.14	$601K	+232.2% of holding	−5.7%	+8.6%	9,537	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-03	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $84.79	$2.5M	+1.3% of holding	−1.4%	+19.6%	2,305,322	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	21,954 @ $83.93	$1.8M	+1.0% of holding	−1.4%	+19.6%	2,275,322	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-31	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	34,073 @ $84.76	$2.9M	+1.5% of holding	+2.1%	+18.3%	2,253,368	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-30	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	95,779 @ $84.92	$8.1M	+4.5% of holding	+2.2%	+16.3%	2,219,295	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-10	Shacklett Kimberly	officer	Sale	2,130 @ $92.00	$196K	−12.7% of holding	−7.9%	−18.4%	14,657	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-09	Shacklett Kimberly	officer	Sale	2,129 @ $90.60	$193K	−12.7% of holding	−6.5%	−20.9%	14,657	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-03	PELLER PHILIP	director	Sale	2,000 @ $90.00	$180K	−41.1% of holding	−5.1%	−12.6%	2,871	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-03	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Sale	2,000 @ $89.39	$179K	−0.1% of holding	−5.1%	−12.6%	1,536,935	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-08	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	27,642 @ $69.77	$1.9M	+1.4% of holding	−4.1%	−6.0%	1,951,725	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-07	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	67,416 @ $70.12	$4.7M	+3.6% of holding	−3.1%	−2.0%	1,924,083	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	41,595 @ $69.57	$2.9M	+2.3% of holding	−3.1%	−2.0%	1,856,667	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Purchase	22,540 @ $68.85	$1.6M	+1.3% of holding	−3.1%	−2.0%	1,815,072	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

251 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Kuhns Robert M	officer	Award / grant	12,575	12,575	Form 4
2026-07-20	Siegel Walter	officer	Award / grant	2,013	2,013	Form 4
2026-04-07	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Gift	14,972	2,878,615	Form 4
2026-02-05	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Gift	13,960	1,568	Form 4
2026-02-05	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Gift	13,960	13,960	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	69,452	4,222	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	69,452	285,511	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	69,452	69,452	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	69,452	0	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Gift	69,452	1,639,359	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	12,647	73,764	Form 4
2026-01-27	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Other acquisition	12,020	12,020	Form 4
2026-01-24	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Option exercise	50	25	Form 4
2026-01-24	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Option exercise	695	0	Form 4
2026-01-24	Kaufmann Michael C	director	Option exercise	695	0	Form 4
2026-01-24	Kaufmann Michael C	director	Option exercise	50	25	Form 4
2026-01-24	Kaufmann Michael C	director	Option exercise	695	15,501	Form 4
2026-01-24	Seseri Rudina	director	Option exercise	695	0	Form 4
2026-01-24	Seseri Rudina	director	Option exercise	50	7,890	Form 4
2026-01-24	Seseri Rudina	director	Option exercise	695	7,840	Form 4
2026-01-24	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	50	25	Form 4
2026-01-24	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	695	3,862	Form 4
2026-01-24	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	50	3,912	Form 4
2026-01-24	Kaufmann Michael C	director	Option exercise	50	15,551	Form 4
2026-01-24	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	695	0	Form 4
2026-01-24	Seseri Rudina	director	Option exercise	50	25	Form 4
2026-01-24	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Option exercise	50	15,528	Form 4
2026-01-24	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Option exercise	695	15,478	Form 4
2026-01-23	Kaufmann Michael C	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	GOESER LOUISE K	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	PELLER PHILIP	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	Purcell Rahquel	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	GERSHWIND ERIK	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	Aarnes Robert B	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	Seseri Rudina	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	JACOBSON MITCHELL	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-23	PALADINO STEVEN	director	Award / grant	1,603	1,603	Form 4
2026-01-22	Aarnes Robert B	director	Option exercise	24	823	Form 4
2026-01-22	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	799	799	Form 4
2026-01-22	Purcell Rahquel	director	Option exercise	24	3,167	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i