Issued 2026-09-16 at $460.53 · now $460.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSI has typically landed between $414.56 and $509.19 — a range of −10.0% to +10.6% from the issuance price $460.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($460.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $460.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $460.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $469.59 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $450.53–$488.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $414.56–$509.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-10 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −42.2% | −43.7% | +0.4% |
| 2008-09-09 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +51.2% |
| 2008-07-14 | +47.4% | −0.6% | +47.8% |
| 2008-07-15 | +46.3% | +0.0% | +48.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$434.32
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$424.48
- Analyst target · range $470.00–$530.00$506.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$460.53
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 5,570 @ $483.68 | $2.7M | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,648 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 4,650 @ $486.10 | $2.3M | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $487.14 | $1.2M | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $485.16 | $776K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Sale | 818 @ $476.80 | $390K | −35.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,468 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Sale | 166 @ $477.69 | $80K | −11.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,282 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Sale | 19 @ $477.29 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,449 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Howard Ayanna | director | Sale | 685 @ $469.51 | $322K | −17.6% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Sale | 1,062 @ $469.69 | $499K | −43.8% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,363 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Sale | 637 @ $470.02 | $300K | −46.8% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 726 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Sale | 54 @ $468.22 | $25K | −7.4% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Sale | 1 @ $470.04 | $334 | −0.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 13,451 @ $478.14 | $6.4M | −12.1% of holding | −3.9% | −11.6% | 97,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 7,832 @ $478.83 | $3.8M | −6.6% of holding | −3.9% | −11.6% | 111,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,934 @ $476.28 | $1.9M | −4.2% of holding | −3.9% | −11.6% | 90,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,218 @ $477.03 | $1.5M | −3.3% of holding | −3.9% | −11.6% | 94,655 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | YAZDI CYNTHIA | officer | Sale | 7,260 @ $479.30 | $3.5M | −43.2% of holding | −3.6% | −11.4% | 9,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | WINKLER JASON J | director | Sale | 4,727 @ $478.48 | $2.3M | −15.8% of holding | −3.6% | −11.4% | 25,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | WINKLER JASON J | director | Sale | 4,092 @ $477.94 | $2.0M | −16.2% of holding | −3.6% | −11.4% | 21,154 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Sale | 406 @ $478.89 | $194K | −17.9% of holding | −3.6% | −11.4% | 1,857 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | YAZDI CYNTHIA | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $471.01 | $3.3M | −42.4% of holding | +0.9% | −8.8% | 9,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | DENMAN KENNETH D | director | Sale | 434 @ $470.12 | $204K | −5.7% of holding | +0.9% | −8.8% | 7,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 52 @ $464.28 | $24K | −0.4% of holding | +0.9% | −8.8% | 14,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,895 @ $470.40 | $1.8M | −12.3% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 27,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,880 @ $470.01 | $1.8M | −9.6% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 36,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,770 @ $470.01 | $1.8M | −17.6% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 17,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,760 @ $470.00 | $1.8M | −16.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 18,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 3,730 @ $469.53 | $1.8M | −13.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 24,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,949 @ $469.15 | $1.4M | −15.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 15,783 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,943 @ $469.17 | $1.4M | −16.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 14,720 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,832 @ $469.15 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 33,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,538 @ $470.69 | $1.2M | −10.1% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 22,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $470.70 | $1.2M | −10.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 21,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 2,465 @ $470.69 | $1.2M | −5.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 40,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | SAPTHARISHI MAHESH | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $471.54 | $1.0M | −6.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 1,128 @ $468.83 | $529K | −4.7% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 22,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 663 @ $471.20 | $312K | −2.0% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 31,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 663 @ $468.01 | $310K | −2.0% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 33,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 617 @ $468.03 | $289K | −4.2% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 14,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 597 @ $467.97 | $279K | −3.8% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 15,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 554 @ $467.89 | $259K | −2.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 22,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 429 @ $466.58 | $200K | −1.9% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 21,951 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 359 @ $466.09 | $167K | −2.6% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 13,416 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 351 @ $466.82 | $164K | −1.1% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 328 @ $466.84 | $153K | −2.3% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 13,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 307 @ $466.84 | $143K | −2.0% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 14,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 294 @ $466.04 | $137K | −2.0% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 14,585 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 278 @ $465.64 | $129K | −1.3% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 21,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 255 @ $466.02 | $119K | −0.8% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 190 @ $465.08 | $88K | −0.6% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 190 @ $465.00 | $88K | −1.3% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 14,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 115 @ $464.87 | $53K | −0.9% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 13,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 93 @ $464.17 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 21,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 85 @ $471.97 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 23,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 85 @ $471.96 | $40K | −0.3% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 25,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 82 @ $471.98 | $39K | −0.2% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 43,068 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 55 @ $464.28 | $26K | −0.4% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 13,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 52 @ $464.28 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 30 @ $474.01 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 43,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Sale | 30 @ $473.11 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +2.4% | −7.1% | 32,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
169 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Withheld for tax | 38 | 1,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Option exercise | 14,220 | 80,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Option exercise | 14,220 | 335,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 349 | 2,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 317 | 1,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 152 | 1,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 317 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Gift | 4,404 | 18,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 349 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Option exercise | 152 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Gift | 4,404 | 17,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Gift | 8,808 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Option exercise | 427 | 2,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Option exercise | 635 | 1,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Option exercise | 635 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Option exercise | 427 | 852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Lashier Mark E | director | Award / grant | 66 | 1,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | ANASENES NICOLE | director | Award / grant | 598 | 1,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Leav Peter | director | Award / grant | 598 | 643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lashier Mark E | director | Award / grant | 598 | 986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | DENMAN KENNETH D | director | Award / grant | 598 | 7,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | TUCCI JOSEPH M | director | Award / grant | 598 | 13,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mann Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 598 | 1,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Howard Ayanna | director | Award / grant | 598 | 3,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | NIEWIARA JAMES A | officer | Gift | 166 | 20,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lashier Mark E | director | Award / grant | 63 | 387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mondre Greg | director | Award / grant | 63 | 1,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | BROWN GREGORY Q | director | Withheld for tax | 4,333 | 85,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | SAPTHARISHI MAHESH | officer | Withheld for tax | 853 | 31,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | MOLLOY JOHN P | officer | Withheld for tax | 851 | 68,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | WINKLER JASON J | director | Withheld for tax | 781 | 20,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | NAIK RAJAN | director | Withheld for tax | 398 | 14,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | YAZDI CYNTHIA | officer | Withheld for tax | 316 | 9,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | MOORE KATHRYN A | officer | Withheld for tax | 88 | 1,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | MAHER KATHERINE A | officer | Withheld for tax | 59 | 1,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | MOLLOY JOHN P | officer | Option exercise | 1,372 | 1,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | NIEWIARA JAMES A | officer | Option exercise | 504 | 503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | NIEWIARA JAMES A | officer | Option exercise | 705 | 20,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | SAPTHARISHI MAHESH | officer | Option exercise | 1,260 | 1,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | SAPTHARISHI MAHESH | officer | Option exercise | 1,764 | 31,921 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.