Issued 2026-09-16 at $393.82 · now $393.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSGS has typically landed between $356.23 and $440.73 — a range of −9.5% to +11.9% from the issuance price $393.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,744 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-09-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($393.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSGS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $393.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $393.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $399.93 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $383.5–$416.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $356.23–$440.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,744 windows spanning 2015-09-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −38.4% | −38.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −36.8% | −37.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +81.4% | +0.0% | +92.3% |
| 2020-03-19 | +80.0% | −6.4% | +80.0% |
| 2020-03-20 | +74.3% | −3.3% | +85.9% |
2,744 overlapping windows · 2015-09-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.4%
n=11
Feb
82%
+4.5%
n=11
Mar
55%
−1.0%
n=11
Apr
64%
+6.1%
n=11
May
45%
+0.2%
n=11
Jun
64%
+1.3%
n=11
Jul
73%
+3.4%
n=11
Aug
36%
−1.4%
n=11
Sep
55%
−0.1%
n=11
Oct
45%
−1.3%
n=11
Nov
64%
+1.9%
n=11
Dec
55%
+3.7%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | DOLAN CHARLES P | director | Sale | 4,057 @ $324.98 | $1.3M | −66.6% of holding | +0.1% | +13.2% | 2,037 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | DOLAN CHARLES P | director | Sale | 1,271 @ $325.78 | $414K | −62.4% of holding | +0.1% | +13.2% | 766 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | DOLAN CHARLES P | director | Sale | 331 @ $326.62 | $108K | −43.2% of holding | +0.1% | +13.2% | 435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 5,181 @ $193.17 | $1.0M | −50.8% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 5,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 3,251 @ $197.71 | $643K | −1.8% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 179,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 2,976 @ $199.62 | $594K | −1.7% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 173,665 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 2,591 @ $198.77 | $515K | −1.4% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 176,641 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 825 @ $200.47 | $165K | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 172,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 411 @ $195.93 | $81K | −0.2% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 182,483 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Sale | 309 @ $193.07 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | +2.6% | −10.4% | 182,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 2,148 @ $188.17 | $404K | −62.9% of holding | +1.5% | −8.7% | 1,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 1,682 @ $187.27 | $315K | −33.0% of holding | +1.5% | −8.7% | 3,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 867 @ $189.05 | $164K | −68.4% of holding | +1.5% | −8.7% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 400 @ $190.11 | $76K | −100.0% of holding | +1.5% | −8.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 12,314 @ $190.28 | $2.3M | −58.7% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 8,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 10,302 @ $189.45 | $2.0M | −32.9% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 20,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 5,646 @ $188.33 | $1.1M | −15.3% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 31,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 1,400 @ $191.10 | $268K | −16.2% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 7,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 861 @ $192.32 | $166K | −11.9% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 6,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 767 @ $193.79 | $149K | −12.0% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 5,632 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 318 @ $194.92 | $62K | −5.6% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 5,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Sale | 217 @ $195.41 | $42K | −4.1% of holding | +3.7% | −8.0% | 5,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Award / grant | 15,134 | 15,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | DOLAN QUENTIN F | director | Award / grant | 80 | 80 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Granville-Smith David | officer | Award / grant | 2,125 | 2,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Granville-Smith David | officer | Award / grant | 4,922 | 4,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Ripp Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 375 | 375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Ripp Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 149 | 149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Lesane Jamaal T | officer | Award / grant | 1,875 | 1,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Lesane Jamaal T | officer | Award / grant | 2,462 | 2,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Warner Bryan | officer | Award / grant | 625 | 625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE | director | Award / grant | 9,750 | 9,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CHARLES F. DOLAN 2009 FAMILY TRUST FBO MARIANNE DOLAN WEBER | other | Other acquisition | 9,700 | 436,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | CHARLES F. DOLAN 2009 FAMILY TRUST FBO MARIANNE DOLAN WEBER | other | Other acquisition | 9,700 | 436,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Marianne E. Dolan Weber 2012 Descendants Trust | other | Other acquisition | 9,700 | 9,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Marianne E. Dolan Weber 2012 Descendants Trust | other | Other acquisition | 9,700 | 9,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripp Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 192 | 192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 11,000 | 159,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Kathleen M. Dolan 2012 Descendants Trust | other | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 18,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 18,702 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CFD 2021 GC Trust FBO Tara E. Dolan | other | Other acquisition | 11,000 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CFD 2021 GC Trust FBO Kevyn A. Dolan | other | Other acquisition | 11,000 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 37,406 | 19,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Marianne E. Dolan Weber 2012 Descendants Trust | other | Other acquisition | 18,702 | 18,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Kathleen M. Dolan 2012 Descendants Trust | other | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 23,906 | 189,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 18,703 | 170,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 11,000 | 213,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 20,406 | 139,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 126,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 15,406 | 111,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 37,405 | 74,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 17,000 | 57,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 37,406 | 19,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 18,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust | other | Other acquisition | 18,702 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CHARLES F. DOLAN 2009 FAMILY TRUST FBO KATHLEEN M. DOLAN | other | Other acquisition | 12,500 | 418,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CHARLES F. DOLAN 2009 FAMILY TRUST FBO PATRICK F. DOLAN | other | Other acquisition | 15,406 | 15,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CHARLES F. DOLAN 2009 FAMILY TRUST FBO THOMAS C. DOLAN | other | Other acquisition | 37,405 | 467,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CHARLES F. DOLAN CHILDREN TRUST FBO DEBORAH DOLAN-SWEENEY | other | Other acquisition | 17,000 | 323,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | CFD 2010 GRANDCHILDREN TRUST FBO DESCENDANTS OF KATHLEEN M. DOLAN | other | Other acquisition | 23,906 | 23,906 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.