MSGE · TickerCove

MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.Communication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $79.31 · now $79.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSGE has typically landed between $66.44 and $92.51 — a range of −16.2% to +16.6% from the issuance price $79.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,596 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($79.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$79.31 · 80% of range

$41.77 low$88.42 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 14.7%

−16.2%worst (p90)+16.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MSGE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $79.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $79.31 (+0.0%)
typical $80.56 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $74.74–$86.37
90% range $66.44–$92.51

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,596 windows spanning 2020-04-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-04-13	−52.7%	−52.7%	+0.1%
2023-04-12	−52.4%	−52.4%	+0.5%
2023-04-14	−49.5%	−51.3%	+2.9%
3 best
2020-11-30	+37.7%	+0.0%	+37.7%
2020-12-01	+35.7%	+0.0%	+35.7%
2023-01-17	+32.9%	+0.0%	+33.9%

1,596 overlapping windows · 2020-04-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

83%

+3.9%

n=6

Feb

83%

+10.1%

n=6

Mar

33%

−5.0%

n=6

Apr

33%

−5.7%

n=6

May

43%

+0.9%

n=7

Jun

29%

−2.7%

n=7

Jul

43%

−0.4%

n=7

Aug

71%

+3.3%

n=7

Sep

57%

−3.2%

n=7

Oct

17%

−1.4%

n=6

Nov

33%

+1.5%

n=6

Dec

67%

+8.0%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Sale	9,907 @ $74.48	$738K	−38.6% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	15,772	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	DOLAN CHARLES P	director	Sale	19,311 @ $63.76	$1.2M	−96.7% of holding	−5.9%	+13.7%	660	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11	Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust	other	Sale	3,615 @ $32.60	$118K	−100.0% of holding	−0.2%	+14.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11	Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust	other	Sale	2,400 @ $32.17	$77K	−39.9% of holding	−0.2%	+14.0%	3,615	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust	other	Sale	64,516 @ $30.93	$2.0M	−88.2% of holding	+5.6%	+18.8%	8,642	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10	Charles F. Dolan 2009 Revocable Trust	other	Sale	2,627 @ $31.64	$83K	−30.4% of holding	+5.6%	+18.8%	6,015	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

119 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE	director	Award / grant	53,657	53,657	Form 4
2026-08-26	DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE	director	Award / grant	99,565	99,565	Form 4
2026-08-26	Collins David J	officer	Award / grant	4,368	4,368	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lo Allen M.	officer	Award / grant	4,368	4,368	Form 4
2026-08-26	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Award / grant	8,735	8,735	Form 4
2026-08-26	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Award / grant	19,913	19,913	Form 4
2026-08-26	Shvartsman Alexander	officer	Award / grant	3,120	3,120	Form 4
2026-06-22	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Gift	375	15,397	Form 4
2026-06-22	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Gift	125	125	Form 4
2026-04-14	Lo Allen M.	officer	Award / grant	27,180	27,180	Form 4
2026-04-14	Shvartsman Alexander	officer	Award / grant	849	849	Form 4
2026-02-17	SALERNO FREDERIC V	director	Award / grant	1,903	24,623	Form 4
2025-12-10	BANDIER MARTIN	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	Sweeney Brian	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	Sweeney Claire D	director	Award / grant	3,266	6,667	Form 4
2025-12-10	WEBER MARIANNE DOLAN	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	SALERNO FREDERIC V	director	Award / grant	3,266	22,720	Form 4
2025-12-10	DOLAN PAUL JOSEPH	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	Dolan Ryan Thomas	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	DOLAN QUENTIN F	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	DOLAN CHARLES P	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	DOLAN THOMAS CHARLES	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-12-10	Coleman Donna	director	Award / grant	3,266	16,255	Form 4
2025-09-15	DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE	director	Withheld for tax	55,826	288,133	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Withheld for tax	7,609	19,820	Form 4
2025-09-15	Franco Laura	officer	Withheld for tax	6,000	12,980	Form 4
2025-09-15	Taki Layth	officer	Withheld for tax	4,103	6,080	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Withheld for tax	3,302	25,679	Form 4
2025-09-15	Collins David J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,723	3,058	Form 4
2025-09-15	Dolan Ryan Thomas	director	Withheld for tax	176	2,568	Form 4
2025-09-15	Dolan Ryan Thomas	director	Withheld for tax	59	2,250	Form 4
2025-09-15	DOLAN JAMES LAWRENCE	director	Option exercise	36,903	343,959	Form 4
2025-09-15	Collins David J	officer	Option exercise	4,781	4,781	Form 4
2025-09-15	Collins David J	officer	Option exercise	4,781	9,564	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	2,744	14,936	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	259	15,195	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	6,227	21,422	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	791	28,981	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	6,007	27,429	Form 4
2025-09-15	D'Ambrosio Philip Gerard	officer	Option exercise	8,370	28,190	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i