Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir and Meta joined more than 20 technology companies urging U.S. policymakers on matters related to AI restrictions.
Read →Issued 2026-08-13 at $496.88 · now $496.88 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, MSFT has typically landed between $443.64 and $557.17 — a range of −10.7% to +12.1% from the issuance price $496.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($496.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSFT has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $496.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $496.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $498.93 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $475.68–$522.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $443.64–$557.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −26.1% | −26.1% | +2.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −25.5% | −26.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −24.8% | −27.5% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-10 | +31.4% | −0.9% | +31.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | +30.4% | −0.5% | +30.4% |
| 2026-07-09 | +30.1% | −0.7% | +30.1% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$2.8T
market cap
$16.80
EPS (TTM)
22.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$281.7B
'20'25
Net income$101.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$71.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr36.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr29.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.33
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$285.55
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$574.64
- Analyst target · range $400.00–$680.00$550.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$496.88
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.2%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.4%
n=19
May
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Oct
61%
+3.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
What was excluded from the conviction count, and why
24 award/RSU grants and 5 tax-withholding dispositions excluded — these carry no conviction information.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $250–500K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, multiple law firms publicized securities-fraud investigations and class-action lead-plaintiff solicitations related to Microsoft, while separate reports described Microsoft joining other technology firms in lobbying policymakers on AI regulation and open-source AI models; broader market coverage also noted heavy declines among large technology stocks tied to AI spending concerns that day.
In the news
Rosen Law Firm reminded purchasers of Microsoft common stock between May 1, 2025 and January 28, 2026 of an upcoming deadline related to a securities class action.
Read →A report noted that Microsoft shareholders who lost money have the option to seek a lead role in a securities fraud lawsuit.
Read →The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announced that investors with losses related to Microsoft have the option to seek a lead plaintiff role in a securities fraud class action.
Read →CNBC reported that investors have been penalizing companies with heavy AI capital spending while favoring capex-lite business models.
Read →Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. urged Microsoft investors who suffered losses to contact the firm regarding a lead plaintiff role in litigation.
Read →Magnificent Seven stocks, including Microsoft, collectively lost $787 billion in market value in a single day amid concerns tied to AI infrastructure capital spending disclosed by Alphabet and Tesla.
Read →Microsoft and Nvidia, along with other technology companies, made a public case to lawmakers in favor of open-source AI models.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.