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Read →Issued 2026-09-25 at $516.17 · now $516.17 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MSFT has typically landed between $460.86 and $581.22 — a range of −10.7% to +12.6% from the issuance price $516.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($516.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSFT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $516.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $516.17 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $520.37 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $495.97–$544.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $460.86–$581.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −26.1% | −26.1% | +2.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −25.5% | −26.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −24.8% | −27.5% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-10 | +31.4% | −0.9% | +31.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | +30.4% | −0.5% | +30.4% |
| 2026-07-09 | +30.1% | −0.7% | +30.1% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$285.55
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$574.64
- Analyst target · range $400.00–$680.00$550.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$516.17
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 10,433 @ $496.91 | $5.2M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 560,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 9,821 @ $497.78 | $4.9M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 550,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 8,834 @ $500.11 | $4.4M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 537,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 4,339 @ $495.97 | $2.2M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 570,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 4,305 @ $498.88 | $2.1M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 546,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Hood Amy | director | Sale | 3,942 @ $500.78 | $2.0M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 533,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 32,901 @ $501.12 | $16.5M | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 509,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 24,723 @ $500.47 | $12.4M | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 542,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 9,834 @ $504.11 | $5.0M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 488,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 7,067 @ $503.44 | $3.6M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 497,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 5,080 @ $499.45 | $2.5M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 567,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 4,520 @ $502.29 | $2.3M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 505,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 1,360 @ $505.20 | $687K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 486,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 1,040 @ $498.24 | $518K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 572,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Althoff Judson | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $487.89 | $4.9M | −9.1% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 4,810 @ $496.48 | $2.4M | −10.1% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $402.84 | $1.8M | −8.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $412.45 | $1.0M | −4.6% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Althoff Judson | director | Sale | 15,500 @ $460.99 | $7.1M | −12.3% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Coleman Amy | officer | Sale | 1,262 @ $411.34 | $519K | −2.7% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,003 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Hogan Kathleen T | director | Sale | 12,321 @ $409.52 | $5.0M | −8.2% of holding | −7.3% | +7.3% | 137,933 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | STANTON JOHN W | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $397.35 | $2.0M | +6.3% of holding | +1.4% | +8.9% | 83,905 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,850 @ $478.72 | $1.4M | −4.9% of holding | −1.9% | −22.6% | 55,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Althoff Judson | director | Sale | 12,750 @ $491.52 | $6.3M | −9.0% of holding | −4.0% | −24.0% | 129,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 30,411 @ $518.49 | $15.8M | −6.1% of holding | −7.5% | −27.6% | 469,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 8,089 @ $519.21 | $4.2M | −1.7% of holding | −7.5% | −27.6% | 461,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 48,267 @ $504.95 | $24.4M | −5.4% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 839,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 39,071 @ $505.86 | $19.8M | −4.7% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 800,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 26,494 @ $503.91 | $13.4M | −2.9% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 887,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 25,836 @ $503.00 | $13.0M | −2.7% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 914,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 9,037 @ $506.62 | $4.6M | −1.1% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 791,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Nadella Satya | director | Sale | 500 @ $507.56 | $254K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | −24.8% | 790,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,850 @ $528.56 | $1.5M | −6.8% of holding | −7.5% | −31.6% | 39,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $525.55 | $1.1M | −4.6% of holding | −7.5% | −31.6% | 41,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $463.00 | $1.4M | −6.4% of holding | +2.5% | −8.8% | 43,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $460.01 | $460K | −2.1% of holding | +1.8% | −9.4% | 47,058 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Hogan Kathleen T | director | Sale | 21,500 @ $453.77 | $9.8M | −13.7% of holding | +4.1% | −6.5% | 134,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Althoff Judson | director | Sale | 9,298 @ $457.97 | $4.3M | −8.2% of holding | +4.2% | −1.8% | 104,712 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Althoff Judson | director | Sale | 6,702 @ $458.46 | $3.1M | −6.4% of holding | +4.2% | −1.8% | 98,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Coleman Amy | officer | Sale | 13,243 @ $452.01 | $6.0M | −23.5% of holding | +3.7% | −3.2% | 43,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $433.17 | $2.6M | −1.3% of holding | +0.8% | −3.0% | 471,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 3,812 @ $438.82 | $1.7M | −0.8% of holding | +0.8% | −3.0% | 451,597 | Form 4 · filed 221 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 56,788 @ $436.29 | $24.8M | −10.6% of holding | +1.4% | −1.7% | 476,999 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 18,212 @ $435.31 | $7.9M | −3.3% of holding | +1.4% | −1.7% | 533,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Sale | 30 @ $390.57 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +10.4% | +12.8% | 455,409 | Form 4 · filed 226 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Purchase | 3,842 @ $377.46 | $1.5M | +0.9% of holding | +12.8% | +14.1% | 455,439 | Form 4 · filed 233 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $447.41 | $1.1M | −4.8% of holding | −2.4% | +7.3% | 49,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $437.32 | $875K | −3.7% of holding | −0.5% | +9.2% | 51,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $430.87 | $1.1M | −4.4% of holding | −0.1% | +10.1% | 53,852 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
251 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Jolla Alice L. | director | Withheld for tax | 123 | 81,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Coleman Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 36 | 44,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Award / grant | 29,077 | 473,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Coleman Amy | officer | Award / grant | 6,506 | 50,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Althoff Judson | director | Award / grant | 29,077 | 141,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Award / grant | 11,569 | 59,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Hood Amy | director | Award / grant | 29,077 | 562,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | MacGregor Catherine | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Walmsley Emma N | director | Award / grant | 3 | 1,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | PRITZKER PENNY S | director | Award / grant | 27 | 14,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | PETERSON SANDRA E | director | Award / grant | 49 | 26,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Rainey John D | director | Award / grant | 1 | 422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mason Mark | director | Award / grant | 1 | 428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Di Sibio Carmine | director | Award / grant | 0 | 139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hoffman Reid | director | Award / grant | 32 | 17,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Johnston Hugh F | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | List Teri | director | Award / grant | 43 | 23,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Gift | 14,000 | 444,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | PRITZKER PENNY S | director | Award / grant | 200 | 14,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Di Sibio Carmine | director | Award / grant | 125 | 138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Walmsley Emma N | director | Award / grant | 125 | 1,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | STANTON JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 125 | 84,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | SCHARF CHARLES W | director | Award / grant | 125 | 45,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Rainey John D | director | Award / grant | 125 | 421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Hoffman Reid | director | Award / grant | 188 | 17,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | PETERSON SANDRA E | director | Award / grant | 230 | 26,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Mason Mark | director | Award / grant | 195 | 427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | MacGregor Catherine | director | Award / grant | 205 | 2,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | List Teri | director | Award / grant | 125 | 125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Johnston Hugh F | director | Award / grant | 210 | 2,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Nadella Satya | director | Withheld for tax | 70,466 | 573,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Hood Amy | director | Withheld for tax | 18,739 | 575,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Althoff Judson | director | Withheld for tax | 18,081 | 112,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Withheld for tax | 17,036 | 458,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Numoto Takeshi | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,518 | 47,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Coleman Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 836 | 44,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Jolla Alice L. | director | Withheld for tax | 486 | 81,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Jolla Alice L. | director | Award / grant | 5,575 | 81,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | SMITH BRADFORD L | director | Award / grant | 27,688 | 475,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Nadella Satya | director | Award / grant | 178,622 | 643,753 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-07-15 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $250–500K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-22 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-26 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
What's happening · recap
claude-sonnet-5Generated 2026-07-25 · stored before display, never written live
On 2026-07-24, multiple law firms publicized securities-fraud investigations and class-action lead-plaintiff solicitations related to Microsoft, while separate reports described Microsoft joining other technology firms in lobbying policymakers on AI regulation and open-source AI models; broader market coverage also noted heavy declines among large technology stocks tied to AI spending concerns that day.
In the news
Rosen Law Firm reminded purchasers of Microsoft common stock between May 1, 2025 and January 28, 2026 of an upcoming deadline related to a securities class action.
Read →A report noted that Microsoft shareholders who lost money have the option to seek a lead role in a securities fraud lawsuit.
Read →The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announced that investors with losses related to Microsoft have the option to seek a lead plaintiff role in a securities fraud class action.
Read →CNBC reported that investors have been penalizing companies with heavy AI capital spending while favoring capex-lite business models.
Read →Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. urged Microsoft investors who suffered losses to contact the firm regarding a lead plaintiff role in litigation.
Read →Magnificent Seven stocks, including Microsoft, collectively lost $787 billion in market value in a single day amid concerns tied to AI infrastructure capital spending disclosed by Alphabet and Tesla.
Read →Microsoft and Nvidia, along with other technology companies, made a public case to lawmakers in favor of open-source AI models.
Read →Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.