MSEX · TickerCove

MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyUtilities · Regulated Wateras of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.31 · now $56.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSEX has typically landed between $48.71 and $63.18 — a range of −13.5% to +12.2% from the issuance price $56.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$56.31 · 66% of range

$47.94 low$60.71 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.3%

typical move · IQR 10.2%

−13.5%worst (p90)+12.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MSEX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $56.31 (+0.0%)
typical $56.12 (-0.3%)
middle 50% $53.26–$58.98
90% range $48.71–$63.18

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-05	−31.2%	−31.2%	+0.7%
2020-02-13	−28.8%	−28.8%	+0.0%
2009-02-03	−26.8%	−26.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2021-07-07	+32.0%	−0.7%	+32.0%
2021-07-08	+30.9%	+0.0%	+32.9%
2021-07-06	+29.6%	+0.0%	+29.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−1.9%

n=20

Feb

40%

−1.9%

n=20

Mar

70%

+3.4%

n=20

Apr

55%

+0.8%

n=20

May

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Jun

50%

+1.0%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.7%

n=20

Aug

55%

−1.1%

n=20

Sep

55%

−0.3%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.4%

n=20

Nov

60%

+2.1%

n=20

Dec

75%

+0.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Sale	615 @ $57.61	$35K	−13.4% of holding	+1.1%	not yet — horizon still open	3,978	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04	REINHARD WALTER G	director	Sale	300 @ $55.21	$17K	−4.7% of holding	+1.0%	−7.1%	6,051	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27	HOGLUND ROBERT N	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $54.31	$109K	ownership Δ n/a	+5.3%	−3.7%	2,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25	Capko Robert John	officer	Sale	134 @ $54.04	$7K	−100.0% of holding	+2.0%	−3.2%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Sale	650 @ $50.92	$33K	−14.9% of holding	+3.4%	−9.3%	3,709	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-28	REINHARD WALTER G	director	Sale	702 @ $57.37	$40K	−100.0% of holding	−10.0%	−26.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21	Doll Dennis W	director	Sale	4,067 @ $60.05	$244K	−7.2% of holding	+12.0%	−28.6%	52,112	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11	REINHARD WALTER G	director	Sale	300 @ $64.41	$19K	−4.5% of holding	−2.9%	−32.8%	6,351	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	Bershad Joshua	director	Other acquisition	6,900	223,798	Form 4
2026-04-01	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Award / grant	12,675	19,352	Form 4
2026-04-01	Zerhouni Mohammed G.	officer	Award / grant	5,927	9,047	Form 4
2026-04-01	Sorensen Gregory S	officer	Award / grant	4,983	4,983	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kooper Jay L	officer	Award / grant	2,597	7,450	Form 4
2026-04-01	Simpson Georgia M	officer	Award / grant	2,140	6,323	Form 4
2026-04-01	Fullagar Robert K	officer	Award / grant	2,128	7,319	Form 4
2026-04-01	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Award / grant	2,017	6,251	Form 4
2026-04-01	Capko Robert John	officer	Award / grant	1,679	3,641	Form 4
2026-04-01	Fullagar Robert K	officer	Other acquisition	886	6,433	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bershad Joshua	director	Award / grant	865	1,567	Form 4
2026-04-01	NOBLE ANN L.	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	McKoy Vaughn L	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	Mansue Amy B.	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	Cosgrove James F. Jr.	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	REINHARD WALTER G	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	Klein Steven M	director	Award / grant	865	3,333	Form 4
2026-04-01	HOGLUND ROBERT N	director	Award / grant	865	865	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hanemann Kim C	director	Award / grant	865	3,367	Form 4
2026-04-01	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Other acquisition	823	5,428	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kooper Jay L	officer	Other acquisition	759	6,691	Form 4
2026-04-01	Simpson Georgia M	officer	Other acquisition	759	5,564	Form 4
2026-04-01	Fullagar Robert K	officer	Withheld for tax	394	1,297	Form 4
2026-04-01	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Withheld for tax	364	4,593	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kooper Jay L	officer	Withheld for tax	350	878	Form 4
2026-04-01	Simpson Georgia M	officer	Withheld for tax	338	1,057	Form 4
2026-04-01	Capko Robert John	officer	Other acquisition	193	3,448	Form 4
2026-04-01	Capko Robert John	officer	Withheld for tax	83	83	Form 4
2026-03-03	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Other acquisition	4,630	6,677	Form 4
2026-03-03	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Withheld for tax	2,336	7,129	Form 4
2026-03-01	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Award / grant	4,630	11,307	Form 4
2025-06-15	Bershad Joshua	director	Other acquisition	213,365	230,698	Form 4
2025-04-01	Duchemin-Leslie Nadine	director	Award / grant	6,677	6,677	Form 4
2025-04-01	Zerhouni Mohammed G.	officer	Award / grant	3,120	3,120	Form 4
2025-04-01	Kooper Jay L	officer	Award / grant	1,607	5,685	Form 4
2025-04-01	Fullagar Robert K	officer	Award / grant	1,404	5,878	Form 4
2025-04-01	Simpson Georgia M	officer	Award / grant	1,123	4,885	Form 4
2025-04-01	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Award / grant	1,014	5,177	Form 4
2025-04-01	Ginegaw Lorrie Beth	officer	Other acquisition	943	4,234	Form 4
2025-04-01	Capko Robert John	officer	Award / grant	889	2,173	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i