Issued 2026-09-16 at $540.61 · now $540.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSCI has typically landed between $472.36 and $605.25 — a range of −12.6% to +12.0% from the issuance price $540.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($540.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $540.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $540.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $540.16 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $515.37–$564.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $472.36–$605.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −38.5% | −38.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-29 | −35.8% | −36.6% | +6.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +51.3% | +0.0% | +51.3% |
| 2009-03-06 | +51.0% | −1.0% | +51.0% |
| 2009-03-09 | +49.6% | +0.0% | +52.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$316.62
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$297.33
- Analyst target · range $615.00–$760.00$700.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$540.61
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Taneja Rajat | director | Purchase | 1,786 @ $560.00 | $1.0M | +49.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Sale | 450 @ $604.56 | $272K | −2.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,238 @ $561.56 | $695K | +0.1% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,729,559 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,122 @ $562.47 | $631K | +0.1% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,730,681 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 800 @ $563.39 | $451K | +0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,731,481 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 400 @ $564.42 | $226K | +0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,731,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 240 @ $560.28 | $134K | +0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,728,321 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 120 @ $559.40 | $67K | +0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,728,081 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 80 @ $565.17 | $45K | +0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,731,961 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Munari Alvise J. | officer | Sale | 9,960 @ $592.03 | $5.9M | −29.7% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,588 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Munari Alvise J. | officer | Sale | 40 @ $593.31 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,548 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Sale | 450 @ $560.00 | $252K | −2.0% of holding | −4.1% | −16.2% | 22,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Ashe Robert G. | director | Purchase | 3,681 @ $543.21 | $2.0M | +19.8% of holding | +5.9% | −8.6% | 22,290 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 360 @ $519.45 | $187K | +0.0% of holding | +9.9% | −4.6% | 1,493,647 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 240 @ $517.32 | $124K | +0.0% of holding | +9.9% | −4.6% | 1,493,287 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 200 @ $520.00 | $104K | +0.0% of holding | +9.9% | −4.6% | 1,493,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $524.18 | $3.1M | +0.4% of holding | +8.1% | −8.9% | 1,493,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Sale | 450 @ $550.00 | $248K | −2.0% of holding | +5.9% | +1.9% | 21,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 3,190 @ $535.51 | $1.7M | +0.2% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,482,554 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,892 @ $536.34 | $1.0M | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,484,446 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,124 @ $533.12 | $599K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,478,321 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,106 @ $539.57 | $597K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,486,487 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 1,043 @ $534.55 | $558K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,479,364 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 552 @ $536.02 | $296K | +0.2% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 334,278 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 547 @ $535.10 | $293K | +0.2% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 333,726 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 504 @ $538.77 | $272K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,485,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 480 @ $540.46 | $259K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,486,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 431 @ $537.31 | $232K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,484,877 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 360 @ $531.98 | $192K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,477,197 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 317 @ $536.90 | $170K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 334,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 260 @ $533.22 | $139K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 333,179 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 240 @ $540.37 | $130K | +0.1% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 335,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 140 @ $532.37 | $75K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 332,919 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 114 @ $539.35 | $61K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 334,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 80 @ $541.23 | $43K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 1,487,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 80 @ $537.75 | $43K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 334,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 40 @ $541.90 | $22K | +0.0% of holding | +6.6% | +5.6% | 335,069 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Gutowski Robert J. | officer | Sale | 624 @ $558.42 | $348K | −3.8% of holding | +1.0% | −0.1% | 15,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 43 @ $550.41 | $24K | +0.0% of holding | +4.5% | +0.1% | 1,279,951 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 23 @ $546.40 | $13K | +0.0% of holding | +4.5% | +0.1% | 1,279,890 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 18 @ $547.49 | $10K | +0.0% of holding | +4.5% | +0.1% | 1,279,908 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 9,916 @ $544.70 | $5.4M | +0.8% of holding | +4.4% | −0.0% | 1,279,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Purchase | 2,400 @ $535.11 | $1.3M | +0.7% of holding | +4.4% | −0.0% | 332,779 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 2,151 @ $563.27 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 286,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 1,330 @ $562.35 | $748K | −0.5% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 288,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 1,109 @ $564.17 | $626K | −0.4% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 285,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 309 @ $568.93 | $176K | −0.1% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 284,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 100 @ $565.53 | $57K | −0.0% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 285,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 1 @ $566.32 | $566 | −0.0% of holding | −1.9% | −19.6% | 285,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 2,008 @ $553.25 | $1.1M | −0.7% of holding | −2.4% | −15.7% | 290,159 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 1,886 @ $552.03 | $1.0M | −0.6% of holding | −2.4% | −15.7% | 292,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 734 @ $551.11 | $405K | −0.2% of holding | −2.4% | −15.7% | 294,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 372 @ $554.82 | $206K | −0.1% of holding | −2.4% | −15.7% | 289,787 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 1,479 @ $521.12 | $771K | −0.5% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 298,059 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 794 @ $522.79 | $415K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 297,265 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 736 @ $523.55 | $385K | −0.2% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 296,529 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 585 @ $524.60 | $307K | −0.2% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 295,944 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 566 @ $533.09 | $302K | −0.2% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 294,793 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 250 @ $529.32 | $132K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 295,359 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Sale | 249 @ $519.95 | $129K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | −21.7% | 299,538 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 2 | 906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Matlock Robin | director | Award / grant | 6 | 2,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | RIEFLER LINDA H | director | Award / grant | 8 | 20,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Taneja Rajat | director | Award / grant | 42 | 3,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 2 | 904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | RIEFLER LINDA H | director | Award / grant | 7 | 20,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Matlock Robin | director | Award / grant | 6 | 2,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | RIEFLER LINDA H | director | Award / grant | 388 | 20,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Perold Jacques P | director | Award / grant | 388 | 6,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Smith Marcus L. | director | Award / grant | 388 | 5,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Seitz Michelle | director | Award / grant | 388 | 1,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 388 | 902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ashe Robert G. | director | Award / grant | 490 | 966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Taneja Rajat | director | Award / grant | 388 | 3,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Taneja Rajat | director | Award / grant | 177 | 3,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Matlock Robin | director | Award / grant | 388 | 2,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rattray Sandy C. | director | Withheld for tax | 32 | 2,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Rattray Sandy C. | director | Award / grant | 388 | 2,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Volent Paula | director | Award / grant | 388 | 4,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ashe Robert G. | director | Award / grant | 202 | 1,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Gift | 75,707 | 410,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Gift | 75,707 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Matlock Robin | director | Award / grant | 5 | 1,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | RIEFLER LINDA H | director | Award / grant | 6 | 20,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Yang June | director | Award / grant | 1 | 514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Crum Scott A | officer | Withheld for tax | 548 | 16,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 470 | 22,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Munari Alvise J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 438 | 33,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Gutowski Robert J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 276 | 16,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Read Craig Jack | officer | Award / grant | 790 | 2,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Gutowski Robert J. | officer | Award / grant | 1,086 | 16,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Munari Alvise J. | officer | Award / grant | 3,158 | 33,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Award / grant | 1,825 | 23,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Crum Scott A | officer | Award / grant | 1,554 | 17,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Crum Scott A | officer | Award / grant | 4,968 | 4,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Pettit CD Baer | director | Award / grant | 23,781 | 23,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Munari Alvise J. | officer | Award / grant | 6,042 | 6,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Fernandez Henry A | director | Award / grant | 42,193 | 42,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Gutowski Robert J. | officer | Award / grant | 3,624 | 3,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wiechmann Andrew C. | officer | Award / grant | 5,639 | 5,639 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.