MSCIMSCI Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchangesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $540.61 · now $540.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSCI has typically landed between $472.36 and $605.25 — a range of −12.6% to +12.0% from the issuance price $540.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($540.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MSCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $540.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$472.36worst · -12.6%$605.25best · +12.0%
  • now $540.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $540.16 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $515.37$564.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $472.36$605.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−41.7%−41.7%+0.0%
2008-09-25−38.5%−38.5%+0.0%
2008-09-29−35.8%−36.6%+6.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+51.3%+0.0%+51.3%
2009-03-06+51.0%−1.0%+51.0%
2009-03-09+49.6%+0.0%+52.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$40.0B
market cap
$18.15
EPS (TTM)
30.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$3.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr38.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-45.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-2.39
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $540.61$260.32$797.01
  • DCF (intrinsic)$316.62
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$297.33
  • Analyst target · range $615.00$760.00$700.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$540.61

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.2%
n=19
May
74%
+2.3%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.4%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
56%
−1.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
44%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$644$5082026-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Taneja Rajat2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $272K — Wiechmann Andrew C.2026-05-15: 7 insider purchases, $2.2M — Fernandez Henry A …2026-04-24: 2 insider sales, $5.9M — Munari Alvise J. …2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $252K — Wiechmann Andrew C.2026-02-18: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — Ashe Robert G.2026-02-17: 3 insider purchases, $415K — Fernandez Henry A …2026-02-13: 1 insider purchase, $3.1M — Fernandez Henry A2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $248K — Wiechmann Andrew C.2025-12-05: 19 insider purchases, $6.7M — Fernandez Henry A …2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $348K — Gutowski Robert J.2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $348K2025-12: 19 open-market purchases, $6.7M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $248K2026-02: 5 open-market purchases, $5.6M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $252K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $5.9M2026-05: 7 open-market purchases, $2.2M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $272K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Taneja Rajat — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wiechmann Andrew C. — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Munari Alvise J. — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Munari Alvise J. — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wiechmann Andrew C. — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ashe Robert G. — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed same daydirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wiechmann Andrew C. — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fernandez Henry A — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gutowski Robert J. — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Taneja RajatdirectorPurchase1,786 @ $560.00$1.0M+49.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-10Wiechmann Andrew C.officerSale450 @ $604.56$272K−2.0% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open22,094Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,238 @ $561.56$695K+0.1% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,729,559Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,122 @ $562.47$631K+0.1% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,730,681Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase800 @ $563.39$451K+0.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,731,481Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase400 @ $564.42$226K+0.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,731,881Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase240 @ $560.28$134K+0.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,728,321Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase120 @ $559.40$67K+0.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,728,081Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase80 @ $565.17$45K+0.0% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open1,731,961Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-24Munari Alvise J.officerSale9,960 @ $592.03$5.9M−29.7% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open23,588Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Munari Alvise J.officerSale40 @ $593.31$24K−0.2% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open23,548Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-17Wiechmann Andrew C.officerSale450 @ $560.00$252K−2.0% of holding−4.1%−16.2%22,544Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Ashe Robert G.directorPurchase3,681 @ $543.21$2.0M+19.8% of holding+5.9%−8.6%22,290Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase360 @ $519.45$187K+0.0% of holding+9.9%−4.6%1,493,647Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase240 @ $517.32$124K+0.0% of holding+9.9%−4.6%1,493,287Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase200 @ $520.00$104K+0.0% of holding+9.9%−4.6%1,493,847Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $524.18$3.1M+0.4% of holding+8.1%−8.9%1,493,047Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Wiechmann Andrew C.officerSale450 @ $550.00$248K−2.0% of holding+5.9%+1.9%21,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase3,190 @ $535.51$1.7M+0.2% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,482,554Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,892 @ $536.34$1.0M+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,484,446Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,124 @ $533.12$599K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,478,321Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,106 @ $539.57$597K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,486,487Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase1,043 @ $534.55$558K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,479,364Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase552 @ $536.02$296K+0.2% of holding+6.6%+5.6%334,278Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase547 @ $535.10$293K+0.2% of holding+6.6%+5.6%333,726Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase504 @ $538.77$272K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,485,381Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase480 @ $540.46$259K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,486,967Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase431 @ $537.31$232K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,484,877Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase360 @ $531.98$192K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,477,197Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase317 @ $536.90$170K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%334,595Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase260 @ $533.22$139K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%333,179Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase240 @ $540.37$130K+0.1% of holding+6.6%+5.6%335,029Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase140 @ $532.37$75K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%332,919Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase114 @ $539.35$61K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%334,789Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase80 @ $541.23$43K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%1,487,047Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase80 @ $537.75$43K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%334,675Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase40 @ $541.90$22K+0.0% of holding+6.6%+5.6%335,069Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-24Gutowski Robert J.officerSale624 @ $558.42$348K−3.8% of holding+1.0%−0.1%15,945Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-25Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase43 @ $550.41$24K+0.0% of holding+4.5%+0.1%1,279,951Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-25Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase23 @ $546.40$13K+0.0% of holding+4.5%+0.1%1,279,890Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-25Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase18 @ $547.49$10K+0.0% of holding+4.5%+0.1%1,279,908Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-24Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase9,916 @ $544.70$5.4M+0.8% of holding+4.4%−0.0%1,279,867Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-24Fernandez Henry AdirectorPurchase2,400 @ $535.11$1.3M+0.7% of holding+4.4%−0.0%332,779Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale2,151 @ $563.27$1.2M−0.7% of holding−1.9%−19.6%286,306Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale1,330 @ $562.35$748K−0.5% of holding−1.9%−19.6%288,457Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale1,109 @ $564.17$626K−0.4% of holding−1.9%−19.6%285,197Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale309 @ $568.93$176K−0.1% of holding−1.9%−19.6%284,787Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale100 @ $565.53$57K−0.0% of holding−1.9%−19.6%285,097Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale1 @ $566.32$566−0.0% of holding−1.9%−19.6%285,096Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale2,008 @ $553.25$1.1M−0.7% of holding−2.4%−15.7%290,159Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale1,886 @ $552.03$1.0M−0.6% of holding−2.4%−15.7%292,167Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale734 @ $551.11$405K−0.2% of holding−2.4%−15.7%294,053Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale372 @ $554.82$206K−0.1% of holding−2.4%−15.7%289,787Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale1,479 @ $521.12$771K−0.5% of holding−3.2%−21.7%298,059Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale794 @ $522.79$415K−0.3% of holding−3.2%−21.7%297,265Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale736 @ $523.55$385K−0.2% of holding−3.2%−21.7%296,529Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale585 @ $524.60$307K−0.2% of holding−3.2%−21.7%295,944Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale566 @ $533.09$302K−0.2% of holding−3.2%−21.7%294,793Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale250 @ $529.32$132K−0.1% of holding−3.2%−21.7%295,359Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04Pettit CD BaerdirectorSale249 @ $519.95$129K−0.1% of holding−3.2%−21.7%299,538Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Yang JunedirectorAward / grant2906Form 4
2026-08-28Matlock RobindirectorAward / grant62,037Form 4
2026-08-28RIEFLER LINDA HdirectorAward / grant820,998Form 4
2026-06-02Taneja RajatdirectorAward / grant423,618Form 4
2026-05-29Yang JunedirectorAward / grant2904Form 4
2026-05-29RIEFLER LINDA HdirectorAward / grant720,990Form 4
2026-05-29Matlock RobindirectorAward / grant62,031Form 4
2026-05-01RIEFLER LINDA HdirectorAward / grant38820,983Form 4
2026-05-01Perold Jacques PdirectorAward / grant3886,272Form 4
2026-05-01Smith Marcus L.directorAward / grant3885,444Form 4
2026-05-01Seitz MichelledirectorAward / grant3881,059Form 4
2026-05-01Yang JunedirectorAward / grant388902Form 4
2026-05-01Ashe Robert G.directorAward / grant490966Form 4
2026-05-01Taneja RajatdirectorAward / grant3883,399Form 4
2026-05-01Taneja RajatdirectorAward / grant1773,576Form 4
2026-05-01Matlock RobindirectorAward / grant3882,025Form 4
2026-05-01Rattray Sandy C.directorWithheld for tax322,417Form 4
2026-05-01Rattray Sandy C.directorAward / grant3882,805Form 4
2026-05-01Volent PauladirectorAward / grant3884,245Form 4
2026-05-01Ashe Robert G.directorAward / grant2021,168Form 4
2026-04-28Fernandez Henry AdirectorGift75,707410,776Form 4
2026-04-28Fernandez Henry AdirectorGift75,7070Form 4
2026-02-27Matlock RobindirectorAward / grant51,637Form 4
2026-02-27RIEFLER LINDA HdirectorAward / grant620,595Form 4
2026-02-27Yang JunedirectorAward / grant1514Form 4
2026-02-02Crum Scott AofficerWithheld for tax54816,904Form 4
2026-02-02Wiechmann Andrew C.officerWithheld for tax47022,994Form 4
2026-02-02Munari Alvise J.officerWithheld for tax43833,548Form 4
2026-02-02Gutowski Robert J.officerWithheld for tax27616,485Form 4
2026-01-30Read Craig JackofficerAward / grant7902,177Form 4
2026-01-30Gutowski Robert J.officerAward / grant1,08616,761Form 4
2026-01-30Munari Alvise J.officerAward / grant3,15833,986Form 4
2026-01-30Wiechmann Andrew C.officerAward / grant1,82523,464Form 4
2026-01-30Crum Scott AofficerAward / grant1,55417,452Form 4
2026-01-26Crum Scott AofficerAward / grant4,9684,968Form 4
2026-01-26Pettit CD BaerdirectorAward / grant23,78123,781Form 4
2026-01-26Munari Alvise J.officerAward / grant6,0426,042Form 4
2026-01-26Fernandez Henry AdirectorAward / grant42,19342,193Form 4
2026-01-26Gutowski Robert J.officerAward / grant3,6243,624Form 4
2026-01-26Wiechmann Andrew C.officerAward / grant5,6395,639Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.