Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.29 · now $1.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSC has typically landed between $0.94 and $1.78 — a range of −27.0% to +38.2% from the issuance price $1.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,957 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-18 – 2026-08-14 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MSC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.24 (-3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.11–$1.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.9418–$1.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-12 | −62.2% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-27 | −60.2% | −62.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +2.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-11-25 | +188.7% | +0.0% | +188.7% |
| 2022-11-16 | +172.2% | −3.3% | +172.2% |
| 2022-11-29 | +165.8% | +0.0% | +165.8% |
1,957 overlapping windows · 2018-10-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Silver Point Capital L.P. | director | Sale | 58,000 @ $2.41 | $140K | −0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,570,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.