MSAMSA Safety Incorporatedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $179.82 · now $179.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MSA has typically landed between $162.19 and $200.14 — a range of −9.8% to +11.3% from the issuance price $179.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($179.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MSA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $179.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$162.19worst · -9.8%$200.14best · +11.3%
  • now $179.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $180.03 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $172.09–$187.97
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $162.19–$200.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−40.8%−40.8%+0.0%
2008-09-25−38.0%−38.0%+1.7%
2008-09-29−36.6%−37.7%+1.1%
3 best
2009-03-11+42.0%+0.0%+42.0%
2009-03-05+32.4%−2.2%+33.4%
2009-03-09+32.1%+0.0%+36.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Feb
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.1%
n=19
May
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Jun
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$202$1522026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $3.9M — Vartanian Nishan J.2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $90K — Buck Jonathan D.2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $71K — BECK JULIE A2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $224K — Buck Jonathan D.2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $54K — Buck Jonathan D.2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $400K — Sciullo Stephanie L2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $400K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $54K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $224K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $71K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $4.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Vartanian Nishan J. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Buck Jonathan D. — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BECK JULIE A — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Buck Jonathan D. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Buck Jonathan D. — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sciullo Stephanie L — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Vartanian Nishan J.directorSale20,000 @ $193.99$3.9M−28.4% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open50,324Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-04Buck Jonathan D.officerSale469 @ $191.00$90K−11.0% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open3,776Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11BECK JULIE AdirectorPurchase448 @ $158.69$71K+13.3% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open3,825Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Buck Jonathan D.officerSale1,100 @ $203.48$224K−25.4% of holding−11.0%−20.7%3,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25Buck Jonathan D.officerSale333 @ $161.00$54K−7.0% of holding−0.8%−9.2%4,434Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Sciullo Stephanie LofficerSale2,361 @ $169.51$400K−20.6% of holding−1.1%+2.7%9,083Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-13Vartanian Nishan J.directorSale30,000 @ $161.32$4.8M−45.9% of holding−0.2%−17.0%35,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Buck Jonathan D.officerSale717 @ $159.00$114K−16.3% of holding−1.7%−0.1%3,673Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14LAMBERT WILLIAM MdirectorGift6,00027,626Form 4
2026-09-11LAMBERT WILLIAM MdirectorGift2,00033,626Form 4
2026-09-10Savi LucadirectorAward / grant165,473Form 4
2026-09-10Phillips Sandra L.directorAward / grant118,960Form 4
2026-09-10PEARSE DIANE MdirectorAward / grant2042,691Form 4
2026-09-10Jordan Gregory B.directorAward / grant208,361Form 4
2026-08-31BECK JULIE AdirectorWithheld for tax1403,685Form 4
2026-08-04Buck Jonathan D.officerGift524,245Form 4
2026-08-04Marquez OctaviodirectorAward / grant626626Form 4
2026-06-12Blanco Steven C. Sr.directorWithheld for tax70240,239Form 4
2026-06-10Jordan Gregory B.directorAward / grant238,341Form 4
2026-06-10Savi LucadirectorAward / grant185,457Form 4
2026-06-10Phillips Sandra L.directorAward / grant128,949Form 4
2026-06-10PEARSE DIANE MdirectorAward / grant2342,671Form 4
2026-05-21Roda Richard WofficerGift30010,003Form 4
2026-05-13Savi LucadirectorAward / grant8995,438Form 4
2026-05-13Jordan Gregory B.directorAward / grant8998,318Form 4
2026-05-13LAMBERT WILLIAM MdirectorAward / grant89935,626Form 4
2026-05-13Vartanian Nishan J.directorAward / grant89970,324Form 4
2026-05-13Sperry William RdirectorAward / grant8998,167Form 4
2026-05-13PEARSE DIANE MdirectorAward / grant89942,648Form 4
2026-05-13Phillips Sandra L.directorAward / grant8998,937Form 4
2026-05-13BRUGGEWORTH ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant8994,631Form 4
2026-03-10Phillips Sandra L.directorAward / grant88,038Form 4
2026-03-10Jordan Gregory B.directorAward / grant177,419Form 4
2026-03-10Savi LucadirectorAward / grant134,539Form 4
2026-03-10PEARSE DIANE MdirectorAward / grant1741,749Form 4
2026-03-08Vartanian Nishan J.directorWithheld for tax25,67143,754Form 4
2026-03-08Blanco Steven C. Sr.directorWithheld for tax3,77637,165Form 4
2026-03-08Sciullo Stephanie LofficerWithheld for tax2,27611,419Form 4
2026-03-08Sciullo Stephanie LofficerWithheld for tax41213,695Form 4
2026-03-08Blanco Steven C. Sr.directorWithheld for tax34640,941Form 4
2026-03-08Buck Jonathan D.officerWithheld for tax3173,980Form 4
2026-03-08Roda Richard WofficerWithheld for tax28210,021Form 4
2026-03-08Howells David JofficerWithheld for tax2456,735Form 4
2026-03-08Buck Jonathan D.officerWithheld for tax1774,297Form 4
2026-03-08Roda Richard WofficerWithheld for tax15710,303Form 4
2026-03-08Howells David JofficerWithheld for tax1236,980Form 4
2026-03-08Sciullo Stephanie LofficerAward / grant3,80114,107Form 4
2026-03-08Roda Richard WofficerAward / grant70710,460Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-15$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-20$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-10-102025-09-22$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-15$50–100K
Nicholas Van TaylorHousesale2019-04-152019-03-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.