Issued 2026-09-16 at $72.38 · now $72.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRX has typically landed between $62.71 and $89.13 — a range of −13.4% to +23.1% from the issuance price $72.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
579 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($72.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $72.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $72.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.11 (+5.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.62–$81.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.71–$89.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 579 windows spanning 2024-04-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-09-08 | −19.7% | −19.7% | +0.0% |
| 2025-05-14 | −18.2% | −18.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | −17.0% | −18.9% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-13 | +52.7% | +0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2026-03-12 | +50.9% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
| 2026-03-16 | +48.1% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
579 overlapping windows · 2024-04-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+8.7%
n=2
Feb
100%
+6.4%
n=2
Mar
50%
−0.1%
n=2
Apr
100%
+22.6%
n=2
May
33%
+0.7%
n=3
Jun
33%
+1.8%
n=3
Jul
67%
+3.7%
n=3
Aug
67%
+6.6%
n=3
Sep
0%
−3.1%
n=3
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=2
Nov
100%
+13.4%
n=2
Dec
100%
+8.4%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 13,714 @ $70.77 | $971K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,272,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 12,616 @ $70.77 | $893K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,473,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 2,952 @ $71.35 | $211K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,269,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 2,655 @ $71.36 | $189K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,470,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Irvin Rob | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $70.91 | $248K | −10.1% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Irvin Rob | director | Sale | 200 @ $71.86 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 12,250 @ $60.64 | $743K | −1.0% of holding | +26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,270,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 3,963 @ $61.62 | $244K | −0.3% of holding | +26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,266,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 455 @ $62.22 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | +26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,265,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Sale | 27,398 @ $64.19 | $1.8M | −1.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,803,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 11,850 @ $64.22 | $761K | −0.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,287,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Sale | 8,957 @ $64.90 | $581K | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,795,003 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 4,584 @ $64.85 | $297K | −0.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,282,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Sale | 787 @ $65.84 | $52K | −0.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,794,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 232 @ $65.73 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,282,277 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 14,199 @ $62.51 | $888K | −1.1% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,299,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 1,658 @ $61.74 | $102K | −0.1% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,313,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 809 @ $63.00 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,298,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Sale | 32,813 @ $62.29 | $2.0M | −1.1% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,835,688 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Sale | 4,330 @ $62.94 | $273K | −0.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,831,358 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,303 @ $53.22 | $69K | −0.6% of holding | +23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 269 @ $53.98 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 10,934 @ $55.72 | $609K | −0.8% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,352,423 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 5,734 @ $56.31 | $323K | −0.4% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,346,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 11,821 @ $52.87 | $625K | −4.9% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,606 @ $53.53 | $139K | −1.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,231 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 12,624 @ $50.92 | $643K | −0.8% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,509,605 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 641 @ $51.71 | $33K | −0.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,508,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 6,760 @ $50.60 | $342K | −0.5% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,373,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 5,829 @ $51.56 | $301K | −0.4% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,367,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Sale | 4,077 @ $52.36 | $213K | −0.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,363,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 9,589 @ $43.28 | $415K | −3.7% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 8,710 @ $43.27 | $377K | −0.6% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,526,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Texier Thomas | officer | Sale | 4,838 @ $43.97 | $213K | −2.0% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Sale | 4,554 @ $43.97 | $200K | −0.3% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,522,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Withheld for tax | 36,587 | 2,835,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Jethwa Nilesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,567 | 282,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,293 | 1,286,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,215 | 1,485,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Award / grant | 33,582 | 1,498,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Award / grant | 38,921 | 1,304,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Award / grant | 77,843 | 2,872,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jethwa Nilesh | officer | Award / grant | 67,163 | 314,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Myers Linda Kristine | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 23,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Assi Georges | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 2,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Ing Sarah | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 10,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Schweinitz Konstantin Graf von | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 26,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pietrowicz John W. | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 23,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pickering Robert Mark | director | Award / grant | 2,070 | 31,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ing Sarah | director | Withheld for tax | 1,310 | 8,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Myers Linda Kristine | director | Withheld for tax | 1,115 | 21,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Pietrowicz John W. | director | Withheld for tax | 558 | 21,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Van Den Born Simon | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,712 | 1,465,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Jethwa Nilesh | officer | Withheld for tax | 39,661 | 247,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lowitt Ian T | director | Withheld for tax | 39,478 | 2,868,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Tonucci Paolo | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,080 | 1,315,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Texier Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,640 | 208,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Irvin Rob | director | Withheld for tax | 3,358 | 34,746 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.