MRVL · TickerCove

MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-25

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $261.94 · now $261.94 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MRVL has typically landed between $207.40 and $341.21 — a range of −20.8% to +30.3% from the issuance price $261.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($261.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$261.94 · 78% of range

$73.67 low$316.35 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-25 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,391 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.7%

90% CI 51.5%–55.9%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 20.6%

−20.8%worst (p90)+30.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

3 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

8 buys · 6 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MRVL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $261.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $261.94 (+0.0%)
typical $266.75 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $239.74–$293.76
90% range $207.4–$341.21

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-02-06	−44.9%	−44.9%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−43.4%	−43.4%	+0.0%
2008-08-28	−41.6%	−41.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-05-05	+87.5%	−5.2%	+87.5%
2026-05-04	+84.3%	−2.2%	+84.3%
2026-05-07	+80.5%	+0.0%	+97.8%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$170.1B

market cap

$2.91

EPS (TTM)

66.8

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-27

next earnings

Revenue$8.2B

'21'26

Net income$2.7B

'21'26

Free cash flow$1.4B

'21'26

Net margin · by yr32.6%

'21'26

ROE · by yr18.7%

'21'26

Debt / equity · by yr0.33

'21'26

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$23.77
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$99.49
Analyst target · range $155.00–$400.00$240.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-25$261.94

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

78%

+4.5%

n=18

Feb

63%

+0.6%

n=19

Mar

53%

+0.3%

n=19

Apr

42%

+4.6%

n=19

May

74%

+7.5%

n=19

Jun

53%

+2.1%

n=19

Jul

53%

+1.4%

n=19

Aug

47%

−1.1%

n=19

Sep

42%

−0.1%

n=19

Oct

33%

−3.1%

n=18

Nov

78%

+8.2%

n=18

Dec

61%

+3.2%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $223.39	$1.7M	−1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	775,686	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $203.27	$2.0M	−4.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	217,941	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $236.08	$1.8M	−0.9% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	783,186	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $180.50	$1.8M	−4.2% of holding	+8.0%	not yet — horizon still open	227,941	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-16	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Sale	9,013 @ $199.24	$1.8M	−13.6% of holding	+14.5%	not yet — horizon still open	57,139	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $209.52	$1.6M	−1.0% of holding	+4.7%	not yet — horizon still open	780,509	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $281.92	$2.8M	−4.2% of holding	−31.2%	not yet — horizon still open	227,754	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-23	Durn Daniel	director	Sale	2,250 @ $281.01	$632K	−24.6% of holding	−25.6%	not yet — horizon still open	6,902	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Sale	2,231 @ $299.13	$667K	−3.9% of holding	−31.6%	not yet — horizon still open	55,530	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $298.76	$2.2M	−0.9% of holding	−38.7%	not yet — horizon still open	788,009	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $205.87	$2.1M	−4.0% of holding	+25.4%	not yet — horizon still open	237,392	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	Meintjes Willem A	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $175.24	$701K	−1.7% of holding	+56.0%	not yet — horizon still open	226,675	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-13	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $177.26	$1.3M	−1.0% of holding	+57.3%	not yet — horizon still open	739,397	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $162.76	$1.6M	−4.6% of holding	+70.9%	not yet — horizon still open	209,592	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-17	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $135.50	$1.4M	−21.8% of holding	+16.9%	not yet — horizon still open	35,878	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-16	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Sale	66,892 @ $130.35	$8.7M	−54.8% of holding	+27.3%	not yet — horizon still open	55,199	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-15	Meintjes Willem A	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $134.01	$4.0M	−16.3% of holding	+28.7%	not yet — horizon still open	154,111	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	7,500 @ $134.46	$1.0M	−2.4% of holding	+28.7%	not yet — horizon still open	302,606	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06	Koopmans Chris	director	Sale	10,000 @ $110.24	$1.1M	−7.0% of holding	+44.3%	not yet — horizon still open	133,870	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	6,900 @ $109.45	$755K	−40.2% of holding	+44.3%	not yet — horizon still open	10,263	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-02	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	10,854 @ $107.01	$1.2M	−73.0% of holding	+43.4%	not yet — horizon still open	4,023	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $105.11	$736K	−32.0% of holding	+44.7%	not yet — horizon still open	14,877	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Sale	44,414 @ $99.61	$4.4M	−44.6% of holding	+51.2%	+148.5%	55,199	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Sale	30,000 @ $98.70	$3.0M	−8.8% of holding	+51.2%	+148.5%	310,106	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-05	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $93.08	$465K	−20.5% of holding	−18.0%	+148.1%	19,418	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05	Casper Mark	officer	Sale	1,253 @ $101.00	$127K	−12.2% of holding	−15.3%	+162.0%	9,023	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

274 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Durn Daniel	director	Withheld for tax	3,408	9,963	Form 4
2026-09-15	Durn Daniel	director	Option exercise	6,469	19,408	Form 4
2026-09-15	Durn Daniel	director	Option exercise	6,469	13,371	Form 4
2026-08-15	Scarpulla Justin	officer	Withheld for tax	1,570	2,009	Form 4
2026-08-15	Scarpulla Justin	officer	Option exercise	3,166	9,496	Form 4
2026-08-15	Scarpulla Justin	officer	Option exercise	3,166	3,579	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	5,927	64,543	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Withheld for tax	5,927	236,332	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	4,428	787,789	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	3,670	783,808	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	3,222	790,686	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Withheld for tax	2,147	231,003	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	1,879	58,383	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Withheld for tax	1,790	237,941	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	1,790	66,152	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Withheld for tax	1,468	229,073	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	1,297	56,695	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	926	59,214	Form 4
2026-07-15	Casper Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	806	1,853	Form 4
2026-07-15	Casper Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	734	1,130	Form 4
2026-07-15	Casper Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	627	2,416	Form 4
2026-07-15	Scarpulla Justin	officer	Withheld for tax	253	413	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Option exercise	11,256	70,470	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Option exercise	8,409	792,217	Form 4
2026-07-15	Casper Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,393	1,864	Form 4
2026-07-15	Casper Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,190	3,043	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Option exercise	1,757	60,140	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Option exercise	8,409	58,861	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Option exercise	2,787	230,541	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Option exercise	6,119	793,908	Form 4
2026-07-15	Scarpulla Justin	officer	Option exercise	510	5,610	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Option exercise	6,969	787,478	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Option exercise	3,567	24,972	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Option exercise	1,757	12,299	Form 4
2026-07-15	Bharathi Sandeep	officer	Option exercise	3,399	37,400	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Option exercise	4,077	28,539	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Option exercise	4,077	233,150	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Option exercise	3,399	239,731	Form 4
2026-07-15	Koopmans Chris	director	Option exercise	3,399	37,400	Form 4
2026-07-15	MURPHY MATTHEW J	director	Option exercise	6,969	20,906	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-07-06	2026-06-23	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-07-06	2026-06-16	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-07-06	2026-06-23	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-07-06	2026-06-05	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-06-09	2026-05-21	$1–15K
Byron Donalds	House	purchase	2026-05-13	2026-04-02	$1–15K
Byron Donalds	House	purchase	2026-05-13	2026-04-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-05-11	2026-04-15	$1–15K
Maria Elvira Salazar	House	purchase	2026-05-08	2026-04-06	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-04-07	2026-03-18	$1–15K
Valerie Hoyle	House	sale	2025-10-10	2025-09-23	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-10-03	2025-09-05	$1–15K
Valerie Hoyle	House	purchase	2025-09-12	2025-02-20	$1–15K
Ritchie John Torres	House	sale	2025-08-20	2025-07-11	$1–15K

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-2610% elapsed2026-10-26

Logged immutably 2026-09-26; scored automatically on 2026-10-26 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i