MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Brokersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $176.76 · now $176.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRSH has typically landed between $162.63 and $191.26 — a range of −8.0% to +8.2% from the issuance price $176.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($176.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MRSH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $176.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$162.63worst · -8.0%$191.26best · +8.2%
  • now $176.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $178.18 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $171.92–$184.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $162.63–$191.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−34.1%−34.1%+0.0%
2020-02-19−33.3%−33.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−32.4%−32.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+26.1%+0.0%+26.1%
2009-07-10+24.3%+0.0%+24.5%
2020-03-23+23.3%+0.0%+30.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$86.3B
market cap
$8.18
EPS (TTM)
22.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$27.0B
'20'25
Net income$4.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.42
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $176.76$123.72$272.81
  • DCF (intrinsic)$262.53
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$134.01
  • Analyst target · range $180.00–$234.00$206.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$176.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.9%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.5%
n=19
May
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
74%
+1.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
79%
+2.5%
n=19
Sep
26%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$208$1572026-09-02: 2 insider sales, $3.4M — Doyle John Q, Brennan Katherine2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Jones John Jude2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $141K — Beswick Paul2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — South Martin2026-07-23: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Yates Lloyd M2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Doyle John Q2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $410K — Jones John Jude2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Doyle John Q2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $706K — Studer Nicholas Mark2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.7M2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $3.6M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $3.4M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Doyle John Q — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brennan Katherine — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones John Jude — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Beswick Paul — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer South Martin — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Yates Lloyd M — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Doyle John Q — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones John Jude — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Doyle John Q — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Studer Nicholas Mark — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Doyle John QofficerSale16,656 @ $188.51$3.1M−12.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open116,811Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02Brennan KatherineofficerSale1,197 @ $187.90$225K−14.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,330Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Jones John JudeofficerSale6,500 @ $191.96$1.2M−81.5% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open1,478Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29Beswick PaulofficerSale713 @ $198.00$141K−4.2% of holding−9.5%not yet — horizon still open16,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28South MartinofficerSale7,100 @ $189.99$1.3M−29.9% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open16,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-23Yates Lloyd MdirectorSale12,000 @ $175.65$2.1M−50.0% of holding+5.1%not yet — horizon still open12,001Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02Doyle John QofficerSale16,656 @ $161.71$2.7M−12.5% of holding+12.3%not yet — horizon still open116,811Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11Jones John JudeofficerSale2,362 @ $173.61$410K−22.8% of holding−3.6%−10.2%7,978Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Doyle John QofficerSale16,655 @ $183.30$3.1M−12.5% of holding−1.5%−10.1%116,811Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Studer Nicholas MarkofficerSale3,837 @ $184.03$706K−10.5% of holding−3.3%−10.2%32,536Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Doyle John QofficerOption exercise16,656133,467Form 4
2026-09-02Brennan KatherineofficerOption exercise1,1978,527Form 4
2026-09-02Doyle John QofficerOption exercise16,65616,656Form 4
2026-09-02Brennan KatherineofficerOption exercise1,1970Form 4
2026-08-15Yates Lloyd MdirectorAward / grant22412,680Form 4
2026-08-15SCHAPIRO MORTON OdirectorAward / grant21991,138Form 4
2026-08-15MILLS STEVEN AdirectorAward / grant1945,952Form 4
2026-08-15BROUSSARD BRUCE DdirectorAward / grant1921,617Form 4
2026-08-15Lute Jane HdirectorAward / grant1449,103Form 4
2026-08-14SCHAPIRO MORTON OdirectorOther acquisition47390,919Form 4
2026-08-14HOPKINS DEBORAH CdirectorOther acquisition11221,527Form 4
2026-08-14Anderson AnthonydirectorOther acquisition8917,172Form 4
2026-08-14Yates Lloyd MdirectorOther acquisition6512,456Form 4
2026-08-14Ingram TamaradirectorOther acquisition489,134Form 4
2026-08-14Lute Jane HdirectorOther acquisition478,958Form 4
2026-08-14Siegmund JandirectorOther acquisition122,310Form 4
2026-06-02Doyle John QofficerOption exercise16,656133,467Form 4
2026-06-02Doyle John QofficerOption exercise16,65633,312Form 4
2026-06-01Lute Jane HdirectorAward / grant1,3508,912Form 4
2026-06-01Anderson AnthonydirectorAward / grant1,35017,082Form 4
2026-06-01Ingram TamaradirectorAward / grant1,3509,086Form 4
2026-06-01Siegmund JandirectorAward / grant1,3502,298Form 4
2026-06-01Yates Lloyd MdirectorAward / grant1,35012,391Form 4
2026-06-01SCHAPIRO MORTON OdirectorAward / grant1,35090,445Form 4
2026-06-01HOPKINS DEBORAH CdirectorAward / grant1,35021,415Form 4
2026-06-01Harrison PeterdirectorAward / grant1,3501,350Form 4
2026-06-01HANWAY H EDWARDdirectorAward / grant1,34936,868Form 4
2026-06-01MILLS STEVEN AdirectorAward / grant1,3495,758Form 4
2026-06-01Hartmann JudithdirectorAward / grant1,3494,323Form 4
2026-06-01BROUSSARD BRUCE DdirectorAward / grant1,3491,425Form 4
2026-06-01Harrison PeterdirectorWithheld for tax1031,246Form 4
2026-05-15SCHAPIRO MORTON OdirectorOther acquisition49589,096Form 4
2026-05-15MILLS STEVEN AdirectorAward / grant2644,409Form 4
2026-05-15SCHAPIRO MORTON OdirectorAward / grant25788,601Form 4
2026-05-15Yates Lloyd MdirectorAward / grant22610,981Form 4
2026-05-15Lute Jane HdirectorAward / grant1697,521Form 4
2026-05-15HOPKINS DEBORAH CdirectorOther acquisition11220,065Form 4
2026-05-15Anderson AnthonydirectorOther acquisition8815,732Form 4
2026-05-15Yates Lloyd MdirectorOther acquisition6011,041Form 4
2026-05-15Ingram TamaradirectorOther acquisition437,737Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.