MRP · TickerCove

MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.95 · now $28.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRP has typically landed between $25.78 and $33.20 — a range of −10.9% to +14.7% from the issuance price $28.95.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

384 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.95 · 50% of range

$25.86 low$32.02 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.6%

typical move · IQR 10.6%

−10.9%worst (p90)+14.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MRP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.95 (+0.0%)
typical $29.69 (+2.6%)
middle 50% $28.16–$31.22
90% range $25.78–$33.2

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 384 windows spanning 2025-02-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-02-07	−20.7%	−20.7%	+0.0%
2026-04-20	−14.0%	−14.2%	+0.0%
2026-04-13	−13.4%	−13.4%	+1.0%
3 best
2025-04-16	+22.2%	+0.0%	+22.3%
2025-04-21	+21.6%	+0.0%	+22.0%
2025-04-15	+20.6%	−1.4%	+20.6%

384 overlapping windows · 2025-02-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+2.3%

n=1

Feb

100%

+5.2%

n=1

Mar

50%

+2.6%

n=2

Apr

50%

+4.2%

n=2

May

50%

+1.7%

n=2

Jun

100%

+4.4%

n=2

Jul

50%

+1.7%

n=2

Aug

100%

+13.2%

n=2

Sep

−4.8%

n=2

Oct

−2.0%

n=1

Nov

−5.4%

n=1

Dec

−1.9%

n=1

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $28.80	$86K	+8.4% of holding	+7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	38,750	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-07	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $29.18	$29K	+3.4% of holding	+7.2%	not yet — horizon still open	30,075	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-18	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	4,500 @ $26.96	$121K	+14.4% of holding	+3.9%	not yet — horizon still open	35,750	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	307 @ $26.62	$8K	+14.0% of holding	+9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	2,500	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12	Nitkin Robert	officer	Purchase	1,840 @ $26.60	$49K	+57.1% of holding	+10.1%	not yet — horizon still open	5,065	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Richman Darren	officer	Purchase	195,000 @ $27.31	$5.3M	+88.2% of holding	+7.4%	not yet — horizon still open	416,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	Richman Darren	officer	Purchase	40,000 @ $27.31	$1.1M	+90.9% of holding	+7.4%	not yet — horizon still open	84,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	725 @ $27.18	$20K	+49.4% of holding	+7.4%	not yet — horizon still open	2,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $30.66	$31K	+4.1% of holding	−3.5%	−5.0%	25,611	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	219	—	+1.3% of holding	−4.0%	−16.9%	16,985	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	219	—	+1.3% of holding	−4.0%	−16.9%	16,985	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-24	Lynch Kathleen B.	director	Purchase	1,860 @ $31.74	$59K	+24.3% of holding	−6.8%	−18.1%	9,510	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $32.24	$32K	+6.3% of holding	−0.0%	−20.2%	16,766	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-30	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	242 @ $32.37	$8K	+19.7% of holding	−6.7%	−10.0%	1,468	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-30	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	234 @ $32.33	$8K	+23.6% of holding	−6.7%	−10.0%	1,226	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-29	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $32.69	$82K	+16.0% of holding	−4.5%	−5.7%	18,160	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $32.52	$244K	+32.4% of holding	−5.2%	−6.4%	30,660	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	Pasha Adil	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $28.34	$71K	ownership Δ n/a	−2.9%	−5.8%	2,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Purchase	8,750 @ $28.62	$250K	+60.7% of holding	−1.2%	−3.3%	23,160	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Purchase	8,750 @ $28.36	$248K	+154.6% of holding	−2.1%	−4.8%	14,410	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-19	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $28.24	$212K	+91.9% of holding	−2.1%	−4.8%	15,660	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	3,458 @ $22.45	$78K	+52.0% of holding	+22.3%	+46.9%	10,106	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Rosenblum Garett	officer	Purchase	5,900 @ $22.84	$135K	ownership Δ n/a	+20.5%	+49.3%	5,900	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	3,259 @ $22.89	$75K	+96.2% of holding	+20.5%	+49.3%	6,648	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	638 @ $22.79	$15K	ownership Δ n/a	+20.5%	+49.3%	638	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Presa Rachel	officer	Purchase	354 @ $22.83	$8K	+55.5% of holding	+20.5%	+49.3%	992	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20	Nitkin Robert	officer	Purchase	3,225 @ $23.55	$76K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.2%	+42.8%	3,225	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14	Richman Darren	officer	Purchase	44,000 @ $23.00	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	+13.8%	+38.2%	44,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-13	Richman Darren	officer	Purchase	176,152 @ $22.70	$4.0M	+392.8% of holding	+3.8%	+39.1%	221,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13	Richman Darren	officer	Purchase	44,848 @ $22.09	$991K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.8%	+39.1%	44,848	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Purchase	3,389 @ $22.00	$75K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.8%	+39.1%	3,389	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $22.59	$56K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.8%	+39.1%	2,500	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-13	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Award / grant	5,639	31,250	Form 4
2026-05-13	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Award / grant	5,639	42,750	Form 4
2026-05-13	Mincey Mary Alison	director	Award / grant	5,639	17,750	Form 4
2026-05-13	Lynch Kathleen B.	director	Award / grant	5,639	21,600	Form 4
2026-05-13	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Award / grant	5,639	29,075	Form 4
2025-12-10	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Award / grant	6,451	23,436	Form 4
2025-12-10	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Award / grant	6,451	37,111	Form 4
2025-12-10	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Award / grant	6,451	24,611	Form 4
2025-12-10	Mincey Mary Alison	director	Award / grant	6,451	12,111	Form 4
2025-12-10	Lynch Kathleen B.	director	Award / grant	6,451	15,961	Form 4
2025-11-26	LENNAR CORP /NEW/	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	33,298,754	1,794	Form 4
2025-11-26	LENNAR CORP /NEW/	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	33,298,754	1,794	Form 4
2025-05-19	Lynch Kathleen B.	director	Award / grant	1,990	7,650	Form 4
2025-04-03	Gorson Matthew B.	director	Award / grant	5,660	8,160	Form 4
2025-04-03	Mincey Mary Alison	director	Award / grant	5,660	5,660	Form 4
2025-04-03	Lynch Kathleen B.	director	Award / grant	5,660	5,660	Form 4
2025-04-03	BARTELS PATRICK J JR	director	Award / grant	5,660	5,660	Form 4
2025-04-03	MIGOYA CARLOS A.	director	Award / grant	5,660	15,766	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i