MRNAModerna, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $145.62 · now $145.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRNA has typically landed between $106.49 and $198.90 — a range of −26.9% to +36.6% from the issuance price $145.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,932 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-12-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($145.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MRNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $145.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$106.49worst · -26.9%$198.9best · +36.6%
  • now $145.62 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $140.89 (-3.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $122.88–$158.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $106.49–$198.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,932 windows spanning 2018-12-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-12-17−41.0%−41.0%+0.0%
2021-12-21−40.3%−40.3%+0.0%
2021-12-20−39.4%−39.4%+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-21+192.3%−9.7%+192.3%
2026-07-27+185.5%−3.2%+213.5%
2026-08-03+179.8%−2.3%+216.2%

1,932 overlapping windows · 2018-12-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$21.5B
market cap
$-8.15
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$1.9B
'20'25
Net income−$2.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$2.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-145.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-32.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.22
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $145.62$-13.50$157.41
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-1.71
  • Analyst target · range $25.00–$77.00$45.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$145.62

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+11.2%
n=8
Feb
38%
+1.6%
n=8
Mar
50%
+1.9%
n=8
Apr
63%
+9.7%
n=8
May
63%
+5.8%
n=8
Jun
50%
+3.9%
n=8
Jul
63%
+6.6%
n=8
Aug
38%
+11.7%
n=8
Sep
63%
−1.2%
n=8
Oct
43%
−3.2%
n=7
Nov
71%
+20.6%
n=7
Dec
43%
−3.3%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$174$222026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $5.9M — Hoge Stephen2026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $5.8M — Hoge Stephen2026-09-10: 2 insider sales, $4.7M — Mock James M …2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $486K — Klinger Shannon Thyme2026-08-05: 4 insider sales, $28.7M — Bancel Stephane …2026-07-15: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Hoge Stephen2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Hoge Stephen2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $174K — Klinger Shannon Thyme2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $434K — AFEYAN NOUBAR2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Hoge Stephen2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $265K — Hussain Abbas2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $726K — Klinger Shannon Thyme2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $7.8M — Hoge Stephen2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $703K — AFEYAN NOUBAR2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $14K — Hussain Abbas2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $717K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $7.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $726K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $3.6M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $28.7M2026-09: 5 open-market sales, $16.9M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mock James M — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mock James M — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Klinger Shannon Thyme — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bancel Stephane — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bancel Stephane — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bancel Stephane — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bancel Stephane — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-07-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Klinger Shannon Thyme — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector AFEYAN NOUBAR — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hussain Abbas — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Klinger Shannon Thyme — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoge Stephen — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector AFEYAN NOUBAR — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hussain Abbas — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Hoge StephenofficerSale40,281 @ $146.07$5.9M−2.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,562,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14Hoge StephenofficerSale40,294 @ $144.13$5.8M−2.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,525,858Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-10Mock James MofficerSale19,836 @ $134.49$2.7M−21.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open74,375Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10Mock James MofficerSale15,000 @ $134.49$2.0M−20.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open59,375Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerSale3,471 @ $139.95$486K−4.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open74,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Bancel StephanedirectorSale187,044 @ $58.79$11.0M−2.9% of holding+164.2%not yet — horizon still open6,187,791Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Bancel StephanedirectorSale147,473 @ $56.21$8.3M−2.2% of holding+164.2%not yet — horizon still open6,539,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Bancel StephanedirectorSale124,838 @ $56.96$7.1M−1.9% of holding+164.2%not yet — horizon still open6,414,726Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Bancel StephanedirectorSale39,891 @ $58.12$2.3M−0.6% of holding+164.2%not yet — horizon still open6,374,835Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15Hoge StephenofficerSale53,336 @ $67.60$3.6M−3.5% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open1,483,848Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Hoge StephenofficerSale53,336 @ $51.37$2.7M−3.5% of holding+21.4%not yet — horizon still open1,483,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerSale3,471 @ $50.00$174K−4.9% of holding+55.6%not yet — horizon still open67,468Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-21AFEYAN NOUBARdirectorSale9,263 @ $46.84$434K−70.2% of holding+30.0%not yet — horizon still open3,924Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Hoge StephenofficerSale53,336 @ $48.40$2.6M−3.5% of holding+11.5%not yet — horizon still open1,477,997Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Hussain AbbasdirectorSale5,682 @ $46.63$265K−32.0% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open12,066Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-02Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerSale13,885 @ $52.29$726K−18.9% of holding+1.1%+153.2%59,689Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Hoge StephenofficerSale160,009 @ $48.84$7.8M−9.9% of holding+6.1%+163.7%1,457,427Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-11AFEYAN NOUBARdirectorSale23,853 @ $29.48$703K−85.9% of holding+32.7%+65.8%3,924Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-09Hussain AbbasdirectorSale504 @ $27.60$14K−25.0% of holding+19.5%+67.2%1,515Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise76,4521,602,310Form 4
2026-09-15Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise76,452305,810Form 4
2026-09-14Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise76,4531,566,152Form 4
2026-09-14Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise76,453382,262Form 4
2026-09-10Mock James MofficerOption exercise19,83694,211Form 4
2026-09-10Mock James MofficerOption exercise19,83643,642Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerWithheld for tax5,70481,340Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerWithheld for tax5,70474,375Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise11,797106,179Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerOption exercise11,797106,179Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise11,79787,044Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise11,79787,044Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerOption exercise11,79780,079Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise11,79787,044Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerOption exercise11,79780,079Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerOption exercise11,79780,079Form 4
2026-09-04Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise11,79787,044Form 4
2026-09-04Mock James MofficerOption exercise11,79780,079Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerWithheld for tax4,4891,489,699Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerWithheld for tax1,19768,282Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerWithheld for tax1,04875,247Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise3,47177,600Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise9,28392,828Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise2,16621,661Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise3,47134,716Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerOption exercise2,47524,755Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerOption exercise2,47569,479Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise9,2831,494,188Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise9,2831,494,188Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise2,16676,295Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise9,2831,494,188Form 4
2026-09-01Hoge StephenofficerOption exercise9,2831,494,188Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerOption exercise2,47569,479Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerOption exercise2,47569,479Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise2,16676,295Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise2,16676,295Form 4
2026-09-01Mock James MofficerOption exercise2,47569,479Form 4
2026-09-01Klinger Shannon ThymeofficerOption exercise2,16676,295Form 4
2026-08-28Hoge StephenofficerWithheld for tax2961,484,905Form 4
2026-08-28Mock James MofficerWithheld for tax16067,004Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-10$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.