Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.21 · now $2.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRLN has typically landed between $1.15 and $3.68 — a range of −48.1% to +66.6% from the issuance price $2.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
117 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-03-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MRLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.76 (-20.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.41–$2.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.15–$3.68
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-16 | −58.9% | −58.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | −56.2% | −56.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | −53.6% | −53.6% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-16 | +86.1% | −18.0% | +86.1% |
| 2026-03-17 | +78.2% | −30.2% | +78.2% |
| 2026-03-20 | +51.8% | −21.3% | +101.1% |
117 overlapping windows · 2026-03-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Ravestein Leslie Renee | officer | Award / grant | 205,475 | 205,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Carrithers Ryan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 806,393 | 806,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BRANNON KELYN | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Carrithers Ryan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 256,416 | 256,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Braithwaite Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brunner Mark Rawlins | officer | Award / grant | 225,904 | 225,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ravestein Leslie Renee | officer | Award / grant | 199,036 | 199,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Trabuco Carolyn | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | George Matthew Spencer | director | Award / grant | 531,807 | 15,422,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | George Matthew Spencer | director | Award / grant | 531,807 | 15,422,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ravestein Leslie Renee | officer | Award / grant | 199,036 | 199,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Trabuco Carolyn | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Braithwaite Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Carrithers Ryan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 256,416 | 256,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Montelongo Michael | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brunner Mark Rawlins | officer | Award / grant | 225,904 | 225,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Montelongo Michael | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BLITZER MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BRANNON KELYN | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Smith Robert Hanson | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Smith Robert Hanson | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BLITZER MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | George Matthew Spencer | director | Award / grant | 14,890,622 | 14,890,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | George Matthew Spencer | director | Award / grant | 1,512,485 | 1,512,485 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.