Issued 2026-09-16 at $87.25 · now $87.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRCY has typically landed between $72.27 and $106.53 — a range of −17.2% to +22.1% from the issuance price $87.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($87.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MRCY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $87.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $87.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.92 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $80.54–$95.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.27–$106.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-30 | −64.1% | −64.1% | +1.3% |
| 2008-10-29 | −60.7% | −62.5% | +2.8% |
| 2008-10-31 | −57.5% | −64.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +147.8% | +0.0% | +147.8% |
| 2008-11-28 | +127.7% | −7.2% | +127.7% |
| 2008-12-02 | +117.7% | +0.0% | +117.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+4.1%
n=20
May
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Jul
50%
+2.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Oct
55%
+4.8%
n=20
Nov
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Dec
70%
+8.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $84.51 | $338K | −17.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,275 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 38,276 @ $88.91 | $3.4M | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 372,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 10,814 @ $89.74 | $970K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 361,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 107,628 @ $87.09 | $9.4M | −23.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 345,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 3,448 @ $87.99 | $303K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 342,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 105,471 @ $89.47 | $9.4M | −25.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 2,738 @ $90.60 | $248K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 299,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 64,796 @ $92.40 | $6.0M | −20.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 256,251 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $95.23 | $95K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 356 @ $91.36 | $33K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 204 @ $93.51 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 256,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 22,010 @ $97.67 | $2.1M | −8.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 228,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 6,612 @ $97.67 | $646K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,026 @ $97.67 | $100K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 109 @ $97.67 | $11K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 26,802 @ $100.31 | $2.7M | −9.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 250,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 8,155 @ $100.31 | $818K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 2,187 @ $100.31 | $219K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,308 @ $100.31 | $131K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 548 @ $100.31 | $55K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,091 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 24,144 @ $111.36 | $2.7M | −8.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 277,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 7,347 @ $111.36 | $818K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,971 @ $111.36 | $219K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,178 @ $111.36 | $131K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 494 @ $111.36 | $55K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 3,536 @ $109.95 | $389K | −1.2% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 301,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 1,345 @ $109.95 | $148K | −1.0% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,195 @ $109.95 | $131K | −2.0% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,084 @ $109.95 | $119K | −3.7% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 404 @ $109.95 | $44K | −2.8% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | LANCE HOWARD L | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $99.95 | $800K | −86.5% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | LANCE HOWARD L | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $98.50 | $123K | −100.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Carvalho Orlando D | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $89.36 | $626K | −11.8% of holding | +29.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $92.46 | $185K | −5.8% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 3,625 @ $84.87 | $308K | −2.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 100,899 @ $89.68 | $9.0M | −2.4% of holding | −12.8% | −19.7% | 4,114,618 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 168,648 @ $90.12 | $15.2M | −3.8% of holding | −13.0% | −20.0% | 4,215,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 182,510 @ $94.05 | $17.2M | −4.0% of holding | −14.9% | −16.4% | 4,384,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | LANCE HOWARD L | director | Sale | 4,832 @ $88.98 | $430K | −15.1% of holding | −8.0% | −10.6% | 27,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 2,287 @ $83.56 | $191K | −3.3% of holding | −2.1% | +13.0% | 68,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 582 @ $83.56 | $49K | −3.9% of holding | −2.1% | +13.0% | 14,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 400,000 @ $81.00 | $32.4M | −8.1% of holding | +3.3% | +16.2% | 4,566,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,329 @ $73.42 | $98K | −8.3% of holding | +2.1% | +17.1% | 14,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Plunkett Debora A | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $73.99 | $126K | −9.2% of holding | −4.8% | +14.0% | 16,833 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $75.45 | $75.5M | −16.8% of holding | −6.5% | +11.1% | 4,966,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 67 @ $73.40 | $5K | −0.4% of holding | +3.7% | +5.1% | 16,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $63.76 | $446K | −17.2% of holding | +13.1% | +27.1% | 33,801 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 13,050 @ $64.46 | $841K | −3.4% of holding | +16.5% | +32.3% | 374,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 7,572 @ $64.46 | $488K | −4.5% of holding | +16.5% | +32.3% | 161,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,735 @ $64.46 | $112K | −4.1% of holding | +16.5% | +32.3% | 40,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,220 @ $64.46 | $79K | −1.7% of holding | +16.5% | +32.3% | 70,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 376 @ $64.46 | $24K | −2.3% of holding | +16.5% | +32.3% | 16,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Ballhaus William L | director | Sale | 10,395 @ $66.52 | $691K | −2.6% of holding | +8.0% | +22.4% | 388,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Sale | 7,339 @ $66.52 | $488K | −4.2% of holding | +8.0% | +22.4% | 168,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,681 @ $66.52 | $112K | −3.8% of holding | +8.0% | +22.4% | 42,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Sale | 1,182 @ $66.52 | $79K | −1.6% of holding | +8.0% | +22.4% | 71,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 363 @ $66.52 | $24K | −2.2% of holding | +8.0% | +22.4% | 16,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Sale | 797,000 @ $65.42 | $52.1M | −11.8% of holding | +3.7% | +11.1% | 5,964,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Ratner Steven | officer | Sale | 1,839 @ $53.48 | $98K | −5.0% of holding | +0.9% | +36.8% | 35,174 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Munro Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,610 @ $45.64 | $73K | −10.7% of holding | +16.4% | +45.9% | 13,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 68,476 | 410,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 68,476 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 153,676 | 453,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 153,676 | 68,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 140,650 | 396,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 11,348 | 408,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 140,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 11,348 | 222,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 92,850 | 321,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Ballhaus William L | director | Option exercise | 92,850 | 140,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Disposition | 6,977 | 61,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ballhaus William L | director | Disposition | 70,287 | 304,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Disposition | 16,275 | 141,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Ratner Steven | officer | Disposition | 2,695 | 29,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 170 | 31,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 245 | 31,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Ratner Steven | officer | Award / grant | 437 | 34,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 474 | 31,079 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | LANCE HOWARD L | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 32,104 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | DISBROW LISA S | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 31,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | Carvalho Orlando D | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 59,448 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | DEMURO GERARD J | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 17,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | Plunkett Debora A | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 18,533 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | BUA JEAN A | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 7,815 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 30,605 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | JANA Partners Management, LP | director | Award / grant | 2,362 | 5,966,675 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 487 | 28,243 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | KUPINSKY STUART | officer | Award / grant | 9,865 | 72,699 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Award / grant | 13,153 | 176,237 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Ballhaus William L | director | Award / grant | 44,940 | 398,421 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Ratner Steven | officer | Award / grant | 9,043 | 44,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Munro Douglas | officer | Award / grant | 3,380 | 16,813 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 666 | 27,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Ratner Steven | officer | Disposition | 19,174 | 37,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Nearhos Barry R | director | Award / grant | 761 | 27,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | Farnsworth David E. | director | Award / grant | 22,306 | 163,084 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-15 | Wells Charles Roger IV | director | Disposition | 15,091 | 98,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | BUA JEAN A | director | Award / grant | 5,453 | 5,453 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.