MQ · TickerCove

MQMarqeta, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.89 · now $15.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MQ has typically landed between $11.68 and $19.18 — a range of −26.5% to +20.7% from the issuance price $15.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,303 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.89 · 10% of range

$15.04 low$23.24 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.3%

typical move · IQR 15.9%

−26.5%worst (p90)+20.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.89 (+0.0%)
typical $15.68 (-1.3%)
middle 50% $14.41–$16.94
90% range $11.68–$19.18

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,303 windows spanning 2021-06-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-11-01	−44.2%	−44.2%	+0.0%
2022-01-04	−43.0%	−43.0%	+0.0%
2021-11-03	−41.9%	−41.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-05-09	+61.2%	−8.0%	+61.2%
2021-10-04	+56.1%	−4.8%	+59.5%
2021-10-01	+51.9%	−9.4%	+51.9%

1,303 overlapping windows · 2021-06-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−9.6%

n=5

Feb

40%

−0.6%

n=5

Mar

20%

−6.2%

n=5

Apr

40%

−5.2%

n=5

May

60%

+9.8%

n=5

Jun

60%

−1.9%

n=5

Jul

50%

+5.2%

n=6

Aug

50%

+0.8%

n=6

Sep

−10.5%

n=6

Oct

60%

+7.3%

n=5

Nov

40%

−10.7%

n=5

Dec

20%

−2.9%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	1,250 @ $16.39	$20K	−0.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	168,895	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	1,250 @ $16.27	$20K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	147,481	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	713 @ $16.47	$12K	−5.8% of holding	+0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	11,543	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	713 @ $16.22	$12K	−5.5% of holding	−8.2%	not yet — horizon still open	12,256	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Sale	18,750 @ $16.88	$316K	−9.2% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	185,008	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	5,056 @ $3.89	$20K	−0.8% of holding	+15.3%	not yet — horizon still open	594,926	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12	Paul Elaine	director	Sale	18,148 @ $3.80	$69K	−33.8% of holding	+11.4%	not yet — horizon still open	35,602	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	14,831 @ $3.80	$56K	−22.2% of holding	+11.4%	not yet — horizon still open	51,876	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Atkinson Najuma	director	Sale	10,889 @ $3.80	$41K	−5.8% of holding	+11.4%	not yet — horizon still open	178,417	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	5,055 @ $3.85	$19K	−1.0% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	507,209	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	2,853 @ $3.85	$11K	−8.6% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	30,410	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-21	Paul Elaine	director	Sale	17,452 @ $4.47	$78K	−50.0% of holding	−15.0%	not yet — horizon still open	17,453	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-20	Atkinson Najuma	director	Sale	9,259 @ $4.44	$41K	−5.7% of holding	−14.7%	not yet — horizon still open	153,009	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	5,056 @ $4.12	$21K	−1.0% of holding	−13.2%	not yet — horizon still open	512,264	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	2,853 @ $4.12	$12K	−7.9% of holding	−13.2%	not yet — horizon still open	33,263	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Sumner Crystal	officer	Sale	5,055 @ $3.98	$20K	−1.0% of holding	−1.1%	−12.5%	517,320	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Cummings Martha	director	Sale	2,853 @ $3.98	$11K	−7.3% of holding	−1.1%	−12.5%	36,116	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Gibbons Eugenia	officer	Award / grant	497,863	497,863	Form 4
2026-09-15	Gibbons Eugenia	officer	Award / grant	87,858	87,858	Form 4
2026-09-14	Gardner Jason M.	director	Conversion	270,000	3,826,343	Form 4
2026-09-14	Gardner Jason M.	director	Conversion	270,000	4,586,369	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	16,443	362,276	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	9,335	348,729	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	7,932	204,811	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	7,929	165,652	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	6,910	190,689	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	6,820	336,314	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	5,735	341,038	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	5,354	159,128	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	5,055	154,722	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	4,822	198,290	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	4,425	194,326	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	3,747	150,563	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	2,022	363,941	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	1,873	366,415	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	1,749	169,012	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	1,575	207,788	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	1,499	166,884	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	1,475	367,629	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	1,377	170,145	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	1,312	205,889	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	1,241	208,807	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Withheld for tax	1,132	364,873	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Withheld for tax	840	167,574	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Withheld for tax	735	206,493	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Option exercise	1,339	207,228	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	9,214	159,777	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Option exercise	10,459	62,755	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	3,187	170,761	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	6,829	13,660	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	9,760	164,482	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Option exercise	3,732	45,116	Form 4
2026-09-01	Milotich Michael	director	Option exercise	2,689	369,104	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	9,214	18,430	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Option exercise	1,130	6,777	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pollak Todd	officer	Option exercise	2,636	15,814	Form 4
2026-09-01	Sumner Crystal	officer	Option exercise	14,453	173,581	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i