MPLX · TickerCove

MPLXMPLX LpEnergy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.93 · now $57.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MPLX has typically landed between $54.25 and $63.54 — a range of −6.4% to +9.7% from the issuance price $57.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-10-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$57.93 · 86% of range

$44.22 low$60.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.0%

typical move · IQR 5.5%

−6.4%worst (p90)+9.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MPLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $57.93 (+0.0%)
typical $59.07 (+2.0%)
middle 50% $57.47–$60.67
90% range $54.25–$63.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,469 windows spanning 2012-10-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−64.8%	−64.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−60.6%	−60.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−52.7%	−52.7%	+0.9%
3 best
2020-03-30	+88.4%	+0.0%	+88.4%
2020-03-18	+67.7%	+0.0%	+67.7%
2016-02-11	+61.7%	+0.0%	+63.3%

3,469 overlapping windows · 2012-10-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

86%

+4.9%

n=14

Feb

57%

−0.6%

n=14

Mar

43%

−1.4%

n=14

Apr

64%

+6.1%

n=14

May

43%

+0.9%

n=14

Jun

64%

+0.7%

n=14

Jul

57%

−0.4%

n=14

Aug

57%

+0.2%

n=14

Sep

50%

−2.9%

n=14

Oct

77%

+3.1%

n=13

Nov

79%

+5.5%

n=14

Dec

57%

+1.6%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-03-07	Lyon Shawn M	officer	Purchase	4,000 @ $52.75	$211K	+18.8% of holding	+1.8%	−14.5%	25,299	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	HELMS CHRISTOPHER A	director	Award / grant	1,337	86,208	Form 4
2026-08-14	SEMPLE FRANK M	director	Award / grant	1,073	63,476	Form 4
2026-08-14	STICE J MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	983	58,413	Form 4
2026-08-14	SURMA JOHN P	director	Award / grant	1,563	95,448	Form 4
2026-08-14	Walker Ray N JR	director	Award / grant	82	4,609	Form 4
2026-08-14	Peiffer Garry L.	director	Award / grant	1,232	69,313	Form 4
2026-08-14	Breves Christine S	director	Award / grant	219	15,038	Form 4
2026-05-15	Peiffer Garry L.	director	Award / grant	1,304	67,623	Form 4
2026-05-15	SURMA JOHN P	director	Award / grant	1,656	93,426	Form 4
2026-05-15	STICE J MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	1,098	56,973	Form 4
2026-05-15	SEMPLE FRANK M	director	Award / grant	1,194	61,946	Form 4
2026-05-15	HELMS CHRISTOPHER A	director	Award / grant	1,415	84,413	Form 4
2026-05-15	Breves Christine S	director	Award / grant	277	14,361	Form 4
2026-05-15	Walker Ray N JR	director	Award / grant	78	4,069	Form 4
2026-04-30	SURMA JOHN P	director	Award / grant	2,580	91,770	Form 4
2026-04-30	HELMS CHRISTOPHER A	director	Award / grant	2,247	82,998	Form 4
2026-04-30	SEMPLE FRANK M	director	Award / grant	2,580	60,752	Form 4
2026-04-30	Walker Ray N JR	director	Award / grant	2,247	3,991	Form 4
2026-04-30	Peiffer Garry L.	director	Award / grant	2,247	66,319	Form 4
2026-04-30	Breves Christine S	director	Award / grant	2,247	14,084	Form 4
2026-04-30	STICE J MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	2,580	55,875	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mannen Maryann T.	director	Withheld for tax	6,409	165,459	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mannen Maryann T.	director	Withheld for tax	3,407	175,272	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mannen Maryann T.	director	Withheld for tax	3,404	171,868	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benson Molly R	officer	Withheld for tax	1,240	47,112	Form 4
2026-03-02	Floerke Gregory Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	1,100	96,134	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lyon Shawn M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,033	29,087	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benson Molly R	officer	Withheld for tax	998	46,114	Form 4
2026-03-02	Floerke Gregory Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	995	97,234	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lyon Shawn M	officer	Withheld for tax	920	30,120	Form 4
2026-03-02	HAGEDORN CARL KRISTOPHER	director	Withheld for tax	916	21,072	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lyon Shawn M	officer	Withheld for tax	798	28,289	Form 4
2026-03-02	Floerke Gregory Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	797	95,337	Form 4
2026-03-02	HAGEDORN CARL KRISTOPHER	director	Withheld for tax	663	20,409	Form 4
2026-03-02	Benson Molly R	officer	Withheld for tax	614	48,352	Form 4
2026-03-02	HAGEDORN CARL KRISTOPHER	director	Withheld for tax	422	21,988	Form 4
2026-03-01	Floerke Gregory Scott	officer	Award / grant	5,986	98,229	Form 4
2026-03-01	HAGEDORN CARL KRISTOPHER	director	Award / grant	4,930	22,410	Form 4
2026-03-01	Khoury Maria A	director	Award / grant	8,451	8,451	Form 4
2026-03-01	Benson Molly R	officer	Award / grant	8,803	48,966	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i