MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $413.92 · now $413.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MPC has typically landed between $360.76 and $489.32 — a range of −12.8% to +18.2% from the issuance price $413.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,809 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($413.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MPC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $413.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$360.76worst · -12.8%$489.32best · +18.2%
  • now $413.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $430.35 (+4.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $402.09–$458.6
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $360.76–$489.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,809 windows spanning 2011-06-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−71.9%−71.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−71.0%−71.0%+4.5%
2020-02-18−70.3%−70.3%+6.7%
3 best
2020-04-21+57.8%+0.0%+57.8%
2020-04-03+55.2%+0.0%+64.6%
2020-10-28+52.8%+0.0%+56.6%

3,809 overlapping windows · 2011-06-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$90.3B
market cap
$15.33
EPS (TTM)
20.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$132.7B
'20'25
Net income$4.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr23.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.98
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $413.92$204.73$498.58
  • DCF (intrinsic)$478.32
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$310.77
  • Analyst target · range $225.00–$344.00$321.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$413.92

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
73%
+4.3%
n=15
Feb
60%
+3.2%
n=15
Mar
67%
+2.7%
n=15
Apr
60%
+1.0%
n=15
May
60%
+0.9%
n=15
Jun
60%
+1.3%
n=15
Jul
94%
+6.2%
n=16
Aug
63%
+1.9%
n=16
Sep
44%
−1.1%
n=16
Oct
80%
+5.5%
n=15
Nov
53%
+5.1%
n=15
Dec
47%
−0.8%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$414$1562026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $376K — Lyon Shawn M2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $157K — Lyon Shawn M2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $207K — Brzezinski Erin M2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $4.4M — Benson Molly R …2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $875K — Lyon Shawn M2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Henschen Michael A II2026-06-04: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — Henschen Michael A II …2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $250K — Hessling Ricky D.2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $371K — Hessling Ricky D.2026-03-12: 2 insider sales, $238K — Hessling Ricky D. …2026-03-11: 2 insider sales, $407K — Hessling Ricky D. …2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Henschen Michael A II2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Benson Molly R2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $250K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-08: 7 open-market sales, $8.0M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lyon Shawn M — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lyon Shawn M — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Brzezinski Erin M — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Benson Molly R — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Benson Molly R — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lyon Shawn M — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Henschen Michael A II — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Henschen Michael A II — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Henschen Michael A II — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hessling Ricky D. — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Henschen Michael A II — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Benson Molly R — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Lyon Shawn MofficerSale1,000 @ $375.75$376K−8.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28Lyon Shawn MofficerSale425 @ $368.51$157K−3.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open12,194Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27Brzezinski Erin MofficerSale570 @ $362.79$207K−26.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,576Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerSale7,196 @ $358.57$2.6M−19.2% of holding+18.3%not yet — horizon still open30,334Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerSale5,000 @ $358.57$1.8M−14.2% of holding+18.3%not yet — horizon still open30,334Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13Lyon Shawn MofficerSale2,500 @ $350.00$875K−16.5% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open12,619Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-12Henschen Michael A IIofficerSale6,011 @ $341.56$2.1M−35.6% of holding+14.8%not yet — horizon still open10,889Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04Henschen Michael A IIofficerSale4,964 @ $268.85$1.3M−22.7% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open16,900Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-04Henschen Michael A IIofficerSale1,372 @ $268.75$369K−7.5% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open16,900Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13Hessling Ricky D.officerSale1,000 @ $250.00$250K−13.3% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open6,525Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Hessling Ricky D.officerSale1,626 @ $228.18$371K−17.8% of holding−6.1%+60.5%7,525Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Hessling Ricky D.officerSale559 @ $230.00$129K−5.8% of holding−5.4%+57.4%9,151Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Hessling Ricky D.officerSale478 @ $228.00$109K−4.7% of holding−5.4%+57.4%9,710Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11Hessling Ricky D.officerSale1,485 @ $224.51$333K−12.4% of holding−2.6%+61.1%10,513Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11Hessling Ricky D.officerSale325 @ $226.00$73K−3.1% of holding−2.6%+61.1%10,188Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-12Henschen Michael A IIofficerSale5,289 @ $202.32$1.1M−23.8% of holding+18.0%+66.0%16,974Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Benson Molly RofficerSale10,879 @ $163.00$1.8M−27.5% of holding+10.8%+18.1%28,700Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-03Rucker Kim K.W.directorSale7,392 @ $175.00$1.3M−28.1% of holding−5.5%−15.1%18,944Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11Hessling Ricky D.officerPurchase2,000 @ $134.72$269K+19.7% of holding−1.4%+18.4%12,162Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Bayh EvandirectorPurchase1,000 @ $133.70$134K+1.5% of holding+2.8%+22.0%69,305Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04CAMPBELL JEFFREY CdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $149.61$898K+6666.7% of holding−4.9%+8.5%6,090Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerOption exercise7,19637,530Form 4
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerOption exercise5,00035,334Form 4
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerOption exercise5,0005,000Form 4
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerOption exercise7,19610,000Form 4
2026-08-17Benson Molly RofficerOption exercise5,0000Form 4
2026-08-03Mannen Maryann T.directorWithheld for tax908110,939Form 4
2026-06-04Henschen Michael A IIofficerOption exercise4,96421,864Form 4
2026-06-04Henschen Michael A IIofficerOption exercise4,9640Form 4
2026-04-30Al Khayyal Abdulaziz FahddirectorAward / grant72825,951Form 4
2026-04-30Bayh EvandirectorAward / grant72873,001Form 4
2026-04-30CAMPBELL JEFFREY CdirectorAward / grant7282,581Form 4
2026-04-30Ellison-Taylor Kimberly NdirectorAward / grant7283,203Form 4
2026-04-30COHEN JONATHAN ZdirectorAward / grant72816,235Form 4
2026-04-30Paterson Eileen P.directorAward / grant7283,203Form 4
2026-04-30Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant72819,955Form 4
2026-04-30SEMPLE FRANK MdirectorAward / grant72814,720Form 4
2026-04-30STICE J MICHAELdirectorAward / grant72824,721Form 4
2026-04-30SURMA JOHN PdirectorAward / grant72860,901Form 4
2026-03-11Lyon Shawn MofficerGift1,18615,119Form 4
2026-03-02Mannen Maryann T.directorWithheld for tax2,236111,847Form 4
2026-03-02Mannen Maryann T.directorWithheld for tax952114,861Form 4
2026-03-02Mannen Maryann T.directorWithheld for tax778114,083Form 4
2026-03-02Benson Molly RofficerWithheld for tax34830,334Form 4
2026-03-02Hessling Ricky D.officerWithheld for tax31214,026Form 4
2026-03-02Benson Molly RofficerWithheld for tax28430,682Form 4
2026-03-02Hessling Ricky D.officerWithheld for tax28214,338Form 4
2026-03-02Lyon Shawn MofficerWithheld for tax27916,305Form 4
2026-03-02Floerke Gregory ScottofficerWithheld for tax27831,560Form 4
2026-03-02Floerke Gregory ScottofficerWithheld for tax27831,031Form 4
2026-03-02Lyon Shawn MofficerWithheld for tax25716,821Form 4
2026-03-02Floerke Gregory ScottofficerWithheld for tax25131,309Form 4
2026-03-02Lyon Shawn MofficerWithheld for tax23716,584Form 4
2026-03-02Hessling Ricky D.officerWithheld for tax19214,620Form 4
2026-03-02Henschen Michael A IIofficerWithheld for tax19118,272Form 4
2026-03-02Benson Molly RofficerWithheld for tax17130,966Form 4
2026-03-02Henschen Michael A IIofficerWithheld for tax16718,586Form 4
2026-03-02Henschen Michael A IIofficerWithheld for tax12318,463Form 4
2026-03-02Brzezinski Erin MofficerWithheld for tax592,146Form 4
2026-03-02Brzezinski Erin MofficerWithheld for tax492,247Form 4
2026-03-02Brzezinski Erin MofficerWithheld for tax422,205Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-202026-03-11$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-202026-03-11$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-09-022025-07-18$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-09-022025-07-18$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2025-09-022025-08-14$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-312025-05-15$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-01$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-05$15–50K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2024-04-252024-04-10$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.