Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.85 · now $36.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MPB has typically landed between $32.81 and $41.86 — a range of −11.0% to +13.6% from the issuance price $36.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.01 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.82–$39.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.81–$41.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-11 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +1.0% |
| 2009-06-02 | −34.6% | −34.6% | +0.0% |
| 2009-06-03 | −34.6% | −34.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-01-23 | +45.1% | +0.0% | +45.1% |
| 2012-01-24 | +44.5% | +0.0% | +44.5% |
| 2007-04-27 | +44.1% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
35%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
+2.9%
n=20
Mar
30%
−2.7%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.1%
n=20
May
50%
+4.2%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Aug
75%
+2.3%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
35%
−0.6%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.2%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 287 @ $34.84 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Evans Albert J. | director | Purchase | 287 @ $34.84 | $10K | +0.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Purchase | 72 @ $34.84 | $3K | +0.6% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Frank Joel L. | director | Purchase | 72 @ $34.84 | $3K | +0.6% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | MOWERY THEODORE W | director | Purchase | 58 @ $34.84 | $2K | +0.1% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Abel Robert A | director | Purchase | 15 @ $34.84 | $523 | +0.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 525 @ $32.77 | $17K | +0.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $32.77 | $16K | +0.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $32.72 | $16K | +0.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Evans Albert J. | director | Purchase | 311 @ $32.16 | $10K | +0.8% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,594 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 311 @ $32.16 | $10K | +0.3% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Purchase | 78 @ $32.16 | $3K | +0.7% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Frank Joel L. | director | Purchase | 78 @ $32.16 | $3K | +0.8% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,408 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | MOWERY THEODORE W | director | Purchase | 62 @ $32.16 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Abel Robert A | director | Purchase | 15 @ $32.16 | $482 | +0.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 600 @ $30.84 | $19K | +18.0% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 3,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $30.91 | $15K | +0.4% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 113,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $30.89 | $15K | +0.4% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 114,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $30.82 | $15K | +0.4% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 114,297 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 372 @ $30.87 | $11K | +9.5% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 4,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 118 @ $30.80 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | +4.5% | +4.9% | 114,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $30.84 | $62K | +4.2% of holding | +7.5% | +5.1% | 49,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | BRUGGER THOMAS R | director | Purchase | 800 @ $31.35 | $25K | +15.1% of holding | +6.4% | +5.0% | 6,110 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | BRUGGER THOMAS R | director | Purchase | 18 @ $31.35 | $564 | +37.5% of holding | +6.4% | +5.0% | 66 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Sale | 1 @ $32.58 | $27 | −0.0% of holding | +1.3% | +3.0% | 37,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Evans Albert J. | director | Purchase | 323 @ $31.02 | $10K | +0.8% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 39,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 257 @ $31.02 | $8K | +0.2% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 113,149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Frank Joel L. | director | Purchase | 80 @ $31.02 | $2K | +0.9% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 9,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Purchase | 80 @ $31.02 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 10,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | MOWERY THEODORE W | director | Purchase | 64 @ $31.02 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 40,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Abel Robert A | director | Purchase | 16 @ $31.02 | $496 | +0.2% of holding | +7.1% | +4.9% | 7,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $28.28 | $57K | +4.4% of holding | +11.6% | +3.1% | 47,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $29.51 | $59K | +4.6% of holding | +2.4% | +9.3% | 45,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Evans Albert J. | director | Purchase | 349 @ $28.64 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 38,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 280 @ $28.64 | $8K | +0.2% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 112,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Purchase | 88 @ $28.64 | $3K | +0.9% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 10,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Frank Joel L. | director | Purchase | 88 @ $28.64 | $3K | +1.0% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 9,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | MOWERY THEODORE W | director | Purchase | 70 @ $28.64 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 39,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Abel Robert A | director | Purchase | 18 @ $28.64 | $516 | +0.2% of holding | −2.8% | +15.8% | 7,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.29 | $14K | +29.4% of holding | +9.4% | +7.0% | 2,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.23 | $14K | +18.5% of holding | +9.4% | +7.0% | 3,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.23 | $14K | +22.7% of holding | +9.4% | +7.0% | 2,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.23 | $14K | +41.7% of holding | +9.4% | +7.0% | 1,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Evans Albert J. | director | Purchase | 354 @ $28.20 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −6.4% | +1.4% | 38,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 283 @ $28.20 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | −6.4% | +1.4% | 112,354 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Purchase | 88 @ $28.20 | $2K | +0.9% of holding | −6.4% | +1.4% | 10,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Frank Joel L. | director | Purchase | 88 @ $28.20 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | −6.4% | +1.4% | 9,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Abel Robert A | director | Purchase | 17 @ $28.20 | $479 | +0.2% of holding | −6.4% | +1.4% | 7,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | RITRIEVI RORY G | director | Purchase | 93 @ $26.64 | $2K | +0.9% of holding | +3.5% | +6.2% | 10,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $25.94 | $13K | +0.4% of holding | +9.5% | +1.5% | 111,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $25.91 | $13K | +0.5% of holding | +9.5% | +1.5% | 110,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 500 @ $25.89 | $13K | +0.5% of holding | +9.5% | +1.5% | 111,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 428 @ $25.93 | $11K | +0.4% of holding | +9.5% | +1.5% | 112,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $26.60 | $27K | +2.4% of holding | −1.6% | −2.9% | 43,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 750 @ $26.68 | $20K | +0.7% of holding | −1.6% | −2.9% | 108,888 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 750 @ $26.64 | $20K | +0.7% of holding | −1.6% | −2.9% | 109,638 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 375 @ $26.65 | $10K | +0.3% of holding | −1.6% | −2.9% | 110,013 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Noone John E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $28.23 | $28K | +2.4% of holding | −4.9% | −10.7% | 42,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $28.12 | $28K | +0.9% of holding | −6.7% | −7.8% | 107,578 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $28.08 | $28K | +0.9% of holding | −6.7% | −7.8% | 106,578 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | RITRIEVI RORY G | director | Withheld for tax | 2,136 | 69,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | RITRIEVI RORY G | director | Withheld for tax | 356 | 62,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Withheld for tax | 5,261 | 45,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Other acquisition | 10,769 | 50,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kiefer Bruce A | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Miller Zachary C | officer | Award / grant | 1,897 | 2,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Space Jordan D | officer | Award / grant | 4,520 | 7,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Spotts Paul W | officer | Award / grant | 600 | 1,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Frank Joel L. | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dickinson Joan E | officer | Award / grant | 3,955 | 6,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brumbaugh Kimberly J | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hudson Brian Arden Sr. | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hall Heather R | officer | Award / grant | 4,520 | 7,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Noone John E | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Livingston John Paul | officer | Award / grant | 2,502 | 3,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Evans Albert J. | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RITRIEVI RORY G | director | Award / grant | 11,622 | 37,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MOWERY THEODORE W | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Specht William A III | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | De Soto Matthew G | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Micklewright Scott W | officer | Award / grant | 4,972 | 8,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Abel Robert A | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Webb Justin T. | officer | Award / grant | 5,811 | 9,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Paese Joseph L | officer | Award / grant | 3,051 | 4,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gathagan Maureen M. | director | Award / grant | 1,700 | 1,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | BRUGGER THOMAS R | director | Award / grant | 48 | 48 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | BRUGGER THOMAS R | director | Award / grant | 2,466 | 2,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | BRUGGER THOMAS R | director | Award / grant | 5,310 | 5,310 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Withheld for tax | 6,925 | 40,062 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-16 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Other acquisition | 10,769 | 46,987 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 17,428 | 17,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 32,307 | 32,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 16,357 | 16,357 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 4,402 | 4,402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-30 | Stephon Kenneth John | director | Award / grant | 36,218 | 36,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Evans Albert J. | director | Award / grant | 1,945 | 1,945 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Paese Joseph L | officer | Award / grant | 1,000 | 2,320 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Space Jordan D | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 4,775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Specht William A III | director | Award / grant | 1,945 | 1,945 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.