MPAAMotorcar Parts of America, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.65 · now $10.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MPAA has typically landed between $8.03 and $13.93 — a range of −24.6% to +30.8% from the issuance price $10.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MPAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.03worst · -24.6%$13.93best · +30.8%
  • now $10.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.51 (-1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.38–$11.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.03–$13.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-03-08−48.8%−48.8%+0.0%
2023-03-09−48.6%−48.6%+0.0%
2023-02-21−48.2%−48.2%+2.9%
3 best
2025-02-07+84.5%+0.0%+97.6%
2025-02-06+79.7%+0.0%+100.7%
2025-02-05+69.8%−6.0%+88.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
40%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.7%
n=20
Apr
35%
−4.9%
n=20
May
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Jun
65%
+7.7%
n=20
Jul
30%
−1.6%
n=20
Aug
60%
+4.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
+2.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
50%
+4.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$18$102026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $211K — Cook Jamie Leigh2026-02-12: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Bryan David2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $211K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Cook Jamie Leigh — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 31 days after the tradedirector Bryan David — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23Cook Jamie LeighofficerSale14,074 @ $15.03$211K−100.0% of holding−10.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade
2026-02-12Bryan DaviddirectorPurchase1,000 @ $9.67$10K+1.4% of holding+8.1%+16.3%72,477Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

191 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Bryan DaviddirectorAward / grant11,85111,851Form 4
2026-09-10Gay PhilipdirectorAward / grant11,85111,851Form 4
2026-09-10Ferguson Joseph EdwindirectorAward / grant11,85111,851Form 4
2026-09-10Mirvis Jeffrey PdirectorAward / grant11,85111,851Form 4
2026-09-10Whittaker Barbara LdirectorAward / grant11,85111,851Form 4
2026-09-05Bryan DaviddirectorOption exercise6,8820Form 4
2026-09-05Whittaker Barbara LdirectorOption exercise6,88266,564Form 4
2026-09-05Whittaker Barbara LdirectorOption exercise6,8820Form 4
2026-09-05Mirvis Jeffrey PdirectorOption exercise6,882100,325Form 4
2026-09-05Gay PhilipdirectorOption exercise6,8820Form 4
2026-09-05Gay PhilipdirectorOption exercise6,88289,159Form 4
2026-09-05Ferguson Joseph EdwindirectorOption exercise6,88269,613Form 4
2026-09-05Ferguson Joseph EdwindirectorOption exercise6,8820Form 4
2026-09-05Bryan DaviddirectorOption exercise6,88279,359Form 4
2026-09-05Mirvis Jeffrey PdirectorOption exercise6,8820Form 4
2026-06-21SELWYN JOFFEdirectorWithheld for tax6,169604,063Form 4
2026-06-21Lee David SungofficerWithheld for tax3,23274,628Form 4
2026-06-21Stone Juliet LynnofficerWithheld for tax1,53136,596Form 4
2026-06-21Shah KamleshofficerWithheld for tax1,14939,625Form 4
2026-06-21Schooner Douglas EarlofficerWithheld for tax89439,681Form 4
2026-06-21Lee David SungofficerOption exercise5,5775,576Form 4
2026-06-21Lee David SungofficerOption exercise5,57784,019Form 4
2026-06-21SELWYN JOFFEdirectorOption exercise14,931630,535Form 4
2026-06-21SELWYN JOFFEdirectorOption exercise14,93114,932Form 4
2026-06-21Schooner Douglas EarlofficerOption exercise2,16942,465Form 4
2026-06-21Schooner Douglas EarlofficerOption exercise2,1692,168Form 4
2026-06-21Stone Juliet LynnofficerOption exercise3,71738,838Form 4
2026-06-21Stone Juliet LynnofficerOption exercise3,7173,718Form 4
2026-06-21Shah KamleshofficerOption exercise2,78942,373Form 4
2026-06-21Shah KamleshofficerOption exercise2,7892,788Form 4
2026-06-20SELWYN JOFFEdirectorWithheld for tax20,303610,232Form 4
2026-06-20Lee David SungofficerWithheld for tax6,15977,860Form 4
2026-06-20Burlingame Glenn DanielofficerWithheld for tax2,1324,568Form 4
2026-06-20Schooner Douglas EarlofficerWithheld for tax1,89040,575Form 4
2026-06-20Shah KamleshofficerWithheld for tax1,59940,774Form 4
2026-06-20Stone Juliet LynnofficerWithheld for tax71138,127Form 4
2026-06-20SELWYN JOFFEdirectorOption exercise51,501103,002Form 4
2026-06-20SELWYN JOFFEdirectorOption exercise51,501615,604Form 4
2026-06-20Schooner Douglas EarlofficerOption exercise4,58940,296Form 4
2026-06-20Lee David SungofficerOption exercise10,90421,808Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.