MOVMovado Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Luxury Goodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.94 · now $32.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MOV has typically landed between $28.43 and $38.66 — a range of −13.7% to +17.4% from the issuance price $32.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.43worst · -13.7%$38.66best · +17.4%
  • now $32.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.98 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.99–$34.98
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.43–$38.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−52.0%−52.0%+0.0%
2008-11-13−46.6%−46.6%+11.5%
2020-02-21−44.8%−44.8%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+75.9%−1.7%+75.9%
2009-03-09+69.6%+0.0%+79.0%
2009-03-06+65.1%−6.8%+66.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−1.9%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Mar
50%
+2.7%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.0%
n=20
May
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.0%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.4%
n=20
Aug
50%
+2.4%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Oct
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
45%
+4.2%
n=20
Dec
45%
+1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$152025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $27K — Kennedy Michelle2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $27K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kennedy Michelle — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 34 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-09Kennedy MichelleofficerSale1,290 @ $20.89$27K−4.4% of holding+6.7%+77.0%27,857Form 4 · filed 34 days after the trade
2022-01-05GRINBERG ALEXANDERdirectorSale4,935 @ $43.05$212K−100.0% of holding−4.2%−5.7%0Form 4 · filed 1548 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorAward / grant29635,867Form 4
2026-06-30Kennedy MichelleofficerAward / grant31548Form 4
2026-06-30Soltani BehzadofficerAward / grant682,275Form 4
2026-06-30GRINBERG ALEXANDERdirectorAward / grant212,882Form 4
2026-06-30Feeney LindaofficerAward / grant20591Form 4
2026-06-30DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerAward / grant835,196Form 4
2026-06-30Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerAward / grant291,611Form 4
2026-06-23GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorWithheld for tax36,713407,147Form 4
2026-06-23GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorOption exercise50,000443,860Form 4
2026-06-23GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorOption exercise50,00050,000Form 4
2026-06-22Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerWithheld for tax6,24547,765Form 4
2026-06-22Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerOption exercise7,98054,010Form 4
2026-06-22Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerOption exercise7,9800Form 4
2026-06-18DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerWithheld for tax11,005128,951Form 4
2026-06-18DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerOption exercise13,660139,956Form 4
2026-06-18DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerOption exercise13,6600Form 4
2026-04-16GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorWithheld for tax80,817393,860Form 4
2026-04-16GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorOption exercise100,000474,677Form 4
2026-04-16GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorOption exercise100,000100,000Form 4
2026-03-31Feeney LindaofficerAward / grant35572Form 4
2026-03-31GRINBERG ALEXANDERdirectorAward / grant372,861Form 4
2026-03-31Soltani BehzadofficerAward / grant1372,207Form 4
2026-03-31Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerAward / grant521,582Form 4
2026-03-31GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorAward / grant28735,574Form 4
2026-03-31Kennedy MichelleofficerAward / grant47518Form 4
2026-03-31DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerAward / grant1485,113Form 4
2026-03-27GRINBERG EFRAIMdirectorWithheld for tax11,926374,677Form 4
2026-03-27DEMARSILIS SALLIE AofficerWithheld for tax2,903126,296Form 4
2026-03-27Soltani BehzadofficerWithheld for tax2,72381,042Form 4
2026-03-27Kennedy MichelleofficerWithheld for tax2,15535,928Form 4
2026-03-27Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerWithheld for tax1,46746,030Form 4
2026-03-27GRINBERG ALEXANDERdirectorWithheld for tax58610,271Form 4
2026-03-27Feeney LindaofficerWithheld for tax2305,240Form 4
2026-03-23BRIDGMAN PETER AdirectorAward / grant5,44262,455Form 4
2026-03-23Sussis Mitchell ColeofficerAward / grant10,14247,497Form 4
2026-03-23Kennedy MichelleofficerAward / grant10,14238,083Form 4
2026-03-23GRINBERG ALEXANDERdirectorAward / grant1,81510,857Form 4
2026-03-23HOWARD ALAN HdirectorAward / grant8,58186,854Form 4
2026-03-23Isserman Richard DdirectorAward / grant5,44234,683Form 4
2026-03-23KIRSCHNER ANNdirectorAward / grant5,44232,488Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.