MOSThe Mosaic CompanyBasic Materials · Agricultural Inputsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.79 · now $24.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MOS has typically landed between $20.73 and $29.33 — a range of −16.4% to +18.3% from the issuance price $24.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$20.73worst · -16.4%$29.33best · +18.3%
  • now $24.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.54 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.79–$26.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.73–$29.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−67.2%−67.2%+0.0%
2008-09-24−65.8%−65.8%+0.3%
2008-09-26−65.2%−65.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+63.5%+0.0%+85.2%
2022-02-24+57.6%+0.0%+57.6%
2022-02-22+54.0%+0.0%+54.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$7.1B
market cap
$2.34
EPS (TTM)
9.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$12.1B
'20'25
Net income$541M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$535M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.44
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $24.79$19.29$58.56
  • DCF (intrinsic)$33.85
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$55.85
  • Analyst target · range $22.00–$31.00$26.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$24.79

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
72%
+3.5%
n=18
Feb
74%
+5.6%
n=19
Mar
42%
−2.9%
n=19
Apr
42%
−0.1%
n=19
May
47%
−1.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
−4.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
50%
+1.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$202026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $509K — Precourt Walter F. III2025-11-11: 1 insider purchase, $17K — Kuzenko Jody Lynne2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $17K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $509K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Precourt Walter F. III — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kuzenko Jody Lynne — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Precourt Walter F. IIIofficerSale23,000 @ $22.12$509K−16.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open116,198Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Kuzenko Jody LynnedirectorPurchase685 @ $25.53$17K+8.7% of holding−2.0%−20.4%8,571Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-29Precourt Walter F. IIIofficerSale18,000 @ $35.73$643K−12.3% of holding−2.8%−47.4%128,546Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Bodine Bruce M.directorSale180,708 @ $31.56$5.7M−100.0% of holding+1.8%−41.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-28Koenig Emery N.directorOption exercise4,87386,228Form 4
2026-05-28Koenig Emery N.directorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28BEEBE CHERYL KdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Koenig Emery N.directorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Kuzenko Jody LynnedirectorOption exercise4,87313,444Form 4
2026-05-28Shanahan Kathleen MdirectorOption exercise4,8737,286Form 4
2026-05-28Shanahan Kathleen MdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Shanahan Kathleen MdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28EBEL GREGORY LdirectorOption exercise7,3107,310Form 4
2026-05-28EBEL GREGORY LdirectorAward / grant10,91010,910Form 4
2026-05-28EBEL GREGORY LdirectorOption exercise7,3100Form 4
2026-05-28Gitzel Timothy S.directorOption exercise4,87379,527Form 4
2026-05-28Gitzel Timothy S.directorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Kuzenko Jody LynnedirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Kuzenko Jody LynnedirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Little Sonya CdirectorOption exercise4,8737,286Form 4
2026-05-28BEEBE CHERYL KdirectorOption exercise2,43746,691Form 4
2026-05-28BEEBE CHERYL KdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Little Sonya CdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Little Sonya CdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorOption exercise2,43739,807Form 4
2026-05-28WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28WESTBROOK KELVIN RdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Seaton David ThomasdirectorOption exercise3,16751,089Form 4
2026-05-28Seaton David ThomasdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Seaton David ThomasdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Teixeira Joao Roberto GoncalvesdirectorOption exercise4,87313,442Form 4
2026-05-28Teixeira Joao Roberto GoncalvesdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Teixeira Joao Roberto GoncalvesdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Watkins Gretchen HdirectorOption exercise4,87335,934Form 4
2026-05-28Watkins Gretchen HdirectorAward / grant7,2737,273Form 4
2026-05-28Watkins Gretchen HdirectorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-05-28Gitzel Timothy S.directorOption exercise4,8730Form 4
2026-03-09Bodine Bruce M.directorWithheld for tax7,66811,816Form 4
2026-03-09Precourt Walter F. IIIofficerWithheld for tax6,667139,198Form 4
2026-03-09Swager Karen AdirectorWithheld for tax6,087175,598Form 4
2026-03-09Precourt Walter F. IIIofficerOption exercise5,138145,865Form 4
2026-03-09Wang YijunofficerWithheld for tax4,40659,613Form 4
2026-03-09Bauer Philip EugeneofficerWithheld for tax4,26034,942Form 4
2026-03-09Flugel Russell AofficerWithheld for tax2,38412,461Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatesale2024-03-292024-03-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-02-052024-01-10$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatesale2024-01-032023-12-11$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.