Issued 2026-09-16 at $202.67 · now $202.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MORN has typically landed between $173.84 and $231.10 — a range of −14.2% to +14.0% from the issuance price $202.67.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($202.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MORN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $202.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $202.67 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $201.93 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $190.59–$213.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $173.84–$231.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-20 | −45.8% | −46.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-07-10 | +38.4% | +0.0% | +38.4% |
| 2007-07-11 | +37.3% | +0.0% | +37.7% |
| 2007-07-09 | +35.7% | −0.7% | +35.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
40%
+1.2%
n=20
May
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
75%
+4.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+1.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Oct
80%
+3.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
+1.8%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,740 @ $218.43 | $380K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,940,710 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,314 @ $220.42 | $290K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,938,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,181 @ $217.26 | $257K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,942,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 978 @ $219.44 | $215K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,939,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 226 @ $221.12 | $50K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,938,192 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 220 @ $216.01 | $48K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,943,631 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,827 @ $216.70 | $829K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,944,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 268 @ $217.57 | $58K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,943,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,157 @ $212.87 | $672K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,952,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,938 @ $215.18 | $417K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,948,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,359 @ $214.16 | $291K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,950,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 501 @ $217.13 | $109K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,947,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 295 @ $216.16 | $64K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,948,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,031 @ $213.96 | $649K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,957,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,785 @ $214.81 | $383K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,955,754 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 680 @ $210.24 | $143K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,961,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 426 @ $211.52 | $90K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,961,226 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 369 @ $215.93 | $80K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,955,385 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 189 @ $217.01 | $41K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,955,196 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 114 @ $208.21 | $24K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,962,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,708 @ $210.32 | $570K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,964,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,935 @ $209.48 | $405K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,966,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,588 @ $211.26 | $335K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,962,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 913 @ $208.13 | $190K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,968,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 656 @ $212.53 | $139K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,960,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 106 @ $212.20 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,962,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 5,749 @ $206.84 | $1.2M | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,971,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,501 @ $207.81 | $312K | −0.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,969,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,924 @ $206.28 | $809K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,980,272 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,809 @ $207.33 | $582K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,977,463 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 277 @ $209.38 | $58K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,976,946 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 240 @ $208.45 | $50K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,977,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,498 @ $197.06 | $689K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,987,948 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,936 @ $197.88 | $581K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,985,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 430 @ $198.96 | $86K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 178 @ $206.78 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 78 @ $203.79 | $16K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 52 @ $205.66 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 52 @ $202.09 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 26 @ $199.75 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 5,027 @ $194.96 | $980K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,993,669 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,906 @ $195.77 | $373K | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,991,763 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 291 @ $197.09 | $57K | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,991,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 26 @ $197.63 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,991,446 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 974 @ $200.32 | $195K | −0.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,998,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 7,250 @ $201.84 | $1.5M | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,999,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,566 @ $200.40 | $514K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,007,426 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,559 @ $199.34 | $510K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,009,992 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,453 @ $198.49 | $288K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,012,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 506 @ $201.53 | $102K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,006,920 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 166 @ $196.16 | $33K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,014,004 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,272 @ $198.38 | $451K | −0.0% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,014,170 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 4,310 @ $201.12 | $867K | −0.1% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,018,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,664 @ $201.98 | $336K | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,016,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 1,246 @ $199.58 | $249K | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,022,446 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 30 @ $202.51 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,016,442 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 3,840 @ $199.51 | $766K | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,026,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 2,349 @ $200.57 | $471K | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,023,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 997 @ $198.06 | $197K | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,029,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Sale | 64 @ $201.15 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,023,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Holt Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 54 | 12,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Withheld for tax | 29 | 3,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mansueto Daniel | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 376,969 | 3,483,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Gift | 5,300 | 8,038,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Withheld for tax | 3,699 | 151,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Withheld for tax | 105 | 3,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 3,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | FRANCIS CHERYL A | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 36,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,860 | 12,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Option exercise | 243 | 12,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Diamonte Robin | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 11,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Lyons William M | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 14,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BRAMMAN ANNE L | director | Award / grant | 1,505 | 1,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Option exercise | 2,108 | 154,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kaplan Steven N | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 43,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Award / grant | 1,177 | 141,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Award / grant | 11,359 | 152,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Sutton Doniel | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 4,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Award / grant | 903 | 3,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Award / grant | 451 | 451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | JOYNT STEPHEN | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 6,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | TSAY CAROLINE J | director | Award / grant | 1,144 | 4,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Option exercise | 243 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Award / grant | 4,290 | 4,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Option exercise | 243 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Option exercise | 2,108 | 2,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Award / grant | 17,039 | 17,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Option exercise | 13 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Award / grant | 4,290 | 4,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Award / grant | 17,039 | 17,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Option exercise | 2,108 | 2,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Option exercise | 13 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Award / grant | 301 | 2,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Holt Michael | officer | Award / grant | 684 | 8,480 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Mansueto Joseph D | director | Gift | 27,775 | 8,238,232 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Withheld for tax | 826 | 140,330 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Dunn Daniel Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 154 | 14,851 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Holt Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 73 | 5,592 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Wiersema Conan | officer | Withheld for tax | 28 | 1,871 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kapoor Kunal | director | Award / grant | 10,810 | 10,810 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.