MOAltria Group, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Tobaccoas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.10 · now $70.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MO has typically landed between $65.04 and $77.05 — a range of −7.2% to +9.9% from the issuance price $70.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$65.04worst · -7.2%$77.05best · +9.9%
  • now $70.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.99 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.36–$73.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.04–$77.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.6%−31.6%+0.0%
2008-10-22−25.0%−25.0%+1.6%
2020-02-20−24.8%−24.8%+0.7%
3 best
2020-03-23+23.8%+0.0%+37.9%
2020-05-07+22.1%+0.0%+22.1%
2021-02-26+22.0%+0.0%+22.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$121.9B
market cap
$4.78
EPS (TTM)
15.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$20.1B
'20'25
Net income$6.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr34.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-198.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-7.34
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $70.10$59.77$121.07
  • DCF (intrinsic)$104.73
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$116.84
  • Analyst target · range $64.00–$79.00$74.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$70.10

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
74%
+1.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.2%
n=19
Apr
74%
+1.0%
n=19
May
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Nov
61%
+0.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$532026-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $101K — McQUADE KATHRYN B.2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $563K — KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J, Strahlman Ellen R2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Whitaker Charles N.2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.9M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $563K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $101K↑ buys↓ salesdirector McQUADE KATHRYN B. — Purchase on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KELLY ENNIS DEBRA J — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Strahlman Ellen R — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Whitaker Charles N. — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09McQUADE KATHRYN B.directorPurchase1,500 @ $67.62$101K+1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open114,929Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26KELLY ENNIS DEBRA JdirectorSale5,790 @ $72.25$418K−7.3% of holding+4.6%not yet — horizon still open73,809Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Strahlman Ellen RdirectorSale2,000 @ $72.56$145K−7.4% of holding+4.6%not yet — horizon still open25,102Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-05Whitaker Charles N.officerSale27,908 @ $67.57$1.9M−13.4% of holding+4.0%−7.0%180,869Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-14KELLY ENNIS DEBRA JdirectorAward / grant2,57179,599Form 4
2026-05-14McQUADE KATHRYN B.directorAward / grant4,656111,816Form 4
2026-05-14Connelly Marjorie MarydirectorAward / grant2,57119,936Form 4
2026-05-14Davis Robert MatthewsdirectorAward / grant2,57118,063Form 4
2026-05-14SHANKS VIRGINIA EdirectorAward / grant2,57148,900Form 4
2026-05-14Strahlman Ellen RdirectorAward / grant2,57127,102Form 4
2026-05-14Stoddart Richard SdirectorAward / grant2,5716,010Form 4
2026-05-14Clarke Ian L.T.directorAward / grant2,57118,618Form 4
2026-05-14YZAGUIRRE MARIO MAXdirectorAward / grant2,57119,936Form 4
2026-05-13Mancuso SalvatoredirectorAward / grant40,634320,909Form 4
2026-02-26Gifford William F. Jr.directorWithheld for tax61,849681,942Form 4
2026-02-26Begley Jody LofficerWithheld for tax17,439312,954Form 4
2026-02-26Mancuso SalvatoredirectorWithheld for tax17,385280,275Form 4
2026-02-26Newman Heather A.officerWithheld for tax11,343158,870Form 4
2026-02-26Whitaker Charles N.officerWithheld for tax8,932208,777Form 4
2026-02-26McCarter Robert A. IIIofficerWithheld for tax4,517123,612Form 4
2026-02-26Patterson Katie FofficerWithheld for tax84417,513Form 4
2026-02-26McCarter Robert A. IIIofficerAward / grant5,767128,129Form 4
2026-02-26Gifford William F. Jr.directorAward / grant70,364743,791Form 4
2026-02-26Begley Jody LofficerAward / grant17,166330,393Form 4
2026-02-26Mancuso SalvatoredirectorAward / grant17,166297,660Form 4
2026-02-26Whitaker Charles N.officerAward / grant9,711217,709Form 4
2026-02-26Newman Heather A.officerAward / grant11,822170,213Form 4
2026-02-25McCarter Robert A. IIIofficerAward / grant22,448122,362Form 4
2026-02-25Whitaker Charles N.officerAward / grant13,534207,998Form 4
2026-02-25Begley Jody LofficerAward / grant22,448313,227Form 4
2026-02-25Patterson Katie FofficerAward / grant1,43218,357Form 4
2026-02-25Mancuso SalvatoredirectorAward / grant25,376280,494Form 4
2026-02-25Newman Heather A.officerAward / grant11,973158,391Form 4
2026-02-13MUNOZ GEORGEdirectorOption exercise2,07812,471Form 4
2026-02-04Gifford William F. Jr.directorGift15,700673,427Form 4
2026-01-15MUNOZ GEORGEdirectorOption exercise9,75014,549Form 4
2025-12-09Newman Heather A.officerAward / grant25,751146,418Form 4
2025-12-09Whitaker Charles N.officerAward / grant17,168194,464Form 4
2025-08-21Mancuso SalvatoredirectorWithheld for tax15,496255,118Form 4
2025-08-21Whitaker Charles N.officerWithheld for tax10,331177,296Form 4
2025-08-21Newman Heather A.officerWithheld for tax10,331120,667Form 4
2025-05-15KELLY ENNIS DEBRA JdirectorAward / grant3,21972,297Form 4
2025-05-15Stoddart Richard SdirectorAward / grant3,2193,219Form 4
2025-05-15MUNOZ GEORGEdirectorAward / grant3,219120,721Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Sheri BiggsHousesale2025-10-052025-03-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.