MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationConsumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholicas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.57 · now $44.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MNST has typically landed between $39.94 and $49.29 — a range of −10.4% to +10.6% from the issuance price $44.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MNST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$39.94worst · -10.4%$49.29best · +10.6%
  • now $44.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.22 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.09–$47.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $39.94–$49.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-07-17−53.3%−53.7%+0.2%
2026-07-09−53.2%−53.2%+3.5%
2026-07-16−53.2%−54.8%+0.0%
3 best
2014-07-17+41.0%−3.5%+41.0%
2014-07-31+38.3%+0.0%+46.2%
2014-08-07+38.2%+0.0%+43.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$91.4B
market cap
$2.07
EPS (TTM)
45.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$8.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr23.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.00
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $44.57$39.74$109.83
  • DCF (intrinsic)$67.60
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$50.60
  • Analyst target · range $86.00–$105.00$95.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$44.57

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
63%
+3.8%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.2%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.3%
n=19
May
58%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+0.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
37%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.9%
n=18
Nov
83%
+7.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$432026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Carling Guy2026-05-14: 2 insider sales, $5.5M — HALL MARK J, Tirre Emelie2026-05-13: 2 insider sales, $8.2M — Tirre Emelie, KELLY THOMAS J2026-03-13: 1 insider sale, $618K — KELLY THOMAS J2025-12-12: 4 insider sales, $17.4M — SACKS RODNEY C, Tirre Emelie …2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Carling Guy2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $637K — VIDERGAUZ MARK2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $637K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $2.7M2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $17.4M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $618K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $13.7M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Carling Guy — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HALL MARK J — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tirre Emelie — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tirre Emelie — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KELLY THOMAS J — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KELLY THOMAS J — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SACKS RODNEY C — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SACKS RODNEY C — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Tirre Emelie — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SACKS RODNEY C — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Carling Guy — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector VIDERGAUZ MARK — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10Carling GuyofficerSale19,000 @ $90.90$1.7M−46.5% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open21,863Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorSale54,000 @ $85.81$4.6M−15.3% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open299,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14Tirre EmelieofficerSale10,000 @ $85.74$857K−12.2% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open71,763Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerSale88,700 @ $85.96$7.6M−52.0% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open81,763Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13KELLY THOMAS JofficerSale7,000 @ $87.81$615K−10.1% of holding+8.1%not yet — horizon still open62,553Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13KELLY THOMAS JofficerSale8,000 @ $77.22$618K−11.5% of holding−7.8%−58.2%61,273Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12SACKS RODNEY CdirectorSale137,204 @ $73.58$10.1M−32.4% of holding+3.5%+15.0%286,228Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12SACKS RODNEY CdirectorSale52,342 @ $73.58$3.9M−100.0% of holding+3.5%+15.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Tirre EmelieofficerSale30,000 @ $73.31$2.2M−31.9% of holding+3.5%+15.0%63,939Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12SACKS RODNEY CdirectorSale16,997 @ $73.58$1.3M−4.5% of holding+3.5%+15.0%360,948Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13Carling GuyofficerSale38,438 @ $71.33$2.7M−63.6% of holding+4.0%+14.0%21,993Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13VIDERGAUZ MARKdirectorSale10,000 @ $63.73$637K−16.3% of holding−1.1%+20.3%51,191Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-29KELLY THOMAS JofficerSale27,000 @ $63.40$1.7M−28.0% of holding−6.6%+2.1%69,273Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Tirre EmelieofficerSale8,796 @ $62.46$549K−8.9% of holding−0.7%−0.3%89,501Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-14VIDERGAUZ MARKdirectorSale3,500 @ $60.62$212K−5.7% of holding+1.8%−1.4%57,599Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Carling GuyofficerSale47,000 @ $55.02$2.6M−68.1% of holding+10.3%−1.3%21,993Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-14HALL MARK JdirectorSale21,000 @ $55.00$1.2M−6.6% of holding+10.3%−1.3%299,246Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14KELLY THOMAS JofficerSale10,000 @ $55.27$553K−12.2% of holding+10.3%−1.3%72,273Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14SCHLOSBERG HILTON HdirectorGift1,6902,705,846Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerWithheld for tax8,76024,514Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerOption exercise20,00020,000Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerOption exercise20,00033,274Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerOption exercise20,00033,274Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerOption exercise20,00033,274Form 4
2026-09-03Gehring Rob L.officerOption exercise20,00033,274Form 4
2026-07-08JACKSON JEANNE PdirectorAward / grant30238,274Form 4
2026-07-08Demel AnadirectorAward / grant24320,107Form 4
2026-07-08Hall Tiffany M.directorAward / grant12216,737Form 4
2026-05-22SACKS RODNEY CdirectorOther acquisition697,495217,307Form 4
2026-05-22SACKS RODNEY CdirectorGift11,585205,722Form 4
2026-05-22SCHLOSBERG HILTON HdirectorOther acquisition1,151,8671,359,681Form 4
2026-05-22SCHLOSBERG HILTON HdirectorGift5,9081,353,773Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise15,000353,246Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise12,000338,246Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise15,000326,246Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise12,000311,246Form 4
2026-05-14Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise2,24874,011Form 4
2026-05-14Hall Tiffany M.directorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14Douglas William W IIIdirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14Demel AnadirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14DINKINS JAMES LdirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise15,00045,000Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise12,00033,000Form 4
2026-05-14Pizula Steven GdirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise15,00018,000Form 4
2026-05-14HALL MARK JdirectorOption exercise12,0000Form 4
2026-05-14JACKSON JEANNE PdirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-14VIDERGAUZ MARKdirectorAward / grant2,0392,039Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise28,998160,713Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise32,200131,715Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise17,75299,515Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise5,250170,463Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise4,500165,213Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise20,0000Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise32,20013,800Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise8,99811,000Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise4,50013,500Form 4
2026-05-13Tirre EmelieofficerOption exercise5,25015,750Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2026-04-302026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2026-03-162026-02-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Tony WiedHousepurchase2025-03-142025-02-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-02-122025-01-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.