MNROMonro Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.18 · now $12.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MNRO has typically landed between $10.05 and $14.25 — a range of −17.5% to +17.0% from the issuance price $12.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MNRO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.05worst · -17.5%$14.25best · +17.0%
  • now $12.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.98 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.05–$12.91
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.05–$14.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-07-15−34.5%−34.5%+1.5%
2026-07-16−34.2%−35.5%+0.0%
2026-02-12−34.2%−34.2%+1.0%
3 best
2025-05-09+38.7%+0.0%+43.8%
2008-11-20+37.7%+0.0%+45.3%
2025-05-08+37.7%−4.2%+37.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.1%
n=20
Apr
35%
+0.2%
n=20
May
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.9%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Nov
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$23$112026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $251K — FITZSIMMONS PETER D2026-02-03: 1 insider purchase, $251K — FITZSIMMONS PETER D2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $1.8M — ICAHN CARL C2025-11-06: 1 insider purchase, $7.5M — ICAHN CARL C2025-11-05: 1 insider purchase, $1.9M — ICAHN CARL C2025-11-04: 1 insider purchase, $9.7M — ICAHN CARL C2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $20.8M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $502K↑ buys↓ salesofficer FITZSIMMONS PETER D — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer FITZSIMMONS PETER D — Purchase on 2026-02-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed same daydirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2025-11-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-05FITZSIMMONS PETER DofficerPurchase12,750 @ $19.68$251K+12.8% of holding−11.5%−49.6%112,033Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-03FITZSIMMONS PETER DofficerPurchase13,350 @ $18.80$251K+15.5% of holding+1.9%−40.3%99,283Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase101,422 @ $17.48$1.8M+2.0% of holding+11.4%−15.8%5,078,573Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase428,967 @ $17.40$7.5M+9.4% of holding+11.2%−11.9%4,977,151Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase108,270 @ $17.23$1.9M+2.4% of holding+10.9%−5.9%4,548,184Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase639,473 @ $15.19$9.7M+16.8% of holding+26.7%+8.4%4,439,914Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Woodhouse Hope BdirectorAward / grant11,14928,141Form 4
2026-08-11Johnson Leah C.directorAward / grant11,14934,743Form 4
2026-08-11MCCLUSKI STEPHEN CdirectorAward / grant11,14943,077Form 4
2026-08-11Okray Thomas BdirectorAward / grant11,14924,392Form 4
2026-08-11SOLOMON PETER JdirectorAward / grant11,149720,175Form 4
2026-08-11MELLOR ROBERT EdirectorAward / grant11,14957,377Form 4
2026-08-11Hyde LindsaydirectorAward / grant11,14941,877Form 4
2026-06-19D'Ambrosia BrianofficerWithheld for tax45985,788Form 4
2026-06-19Donovan CindyofficerWithheld for tax17525,978Form 4
2026-06-19Mulholland MaureenofficerWithheld for tax39356,784Form 4
2026-06-19Hawryschuk Nicholas PofficerWithheld for tax13238,465Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorDisposition9,6640Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorDisposition10,0000Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorAward / grant612,750709,026Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorAward / grant592,158678,694Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorDisposition10,0000Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorAward / grant612,750709,026Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorDisposition9,6640Form 4
2026-06-18SOLOMON PETER JdirectorAward / grant592,158678,694Form 4
2026-06-13D'Ambrosia BrianofficerWithheld for tax2,54886,247Form 4
2026-06-13Mulholland MaureenofficerWithheld for tax1,91157,177Form 4
2026-06-13Hawryschuk Nicholas PofficerWithheld for tax1,27438,597Form 4
2026-06-13Donovan CindyofficerWithheld for tax63726,153Form 4
2026-06-13Chang Kathryn M.officerWithheld for tax6378,368Form 4
2026-05-21Hawryschuk Nicholas PofficerAward / grant7,02228,882Form 4
2026-05-21Chang Kathryn M.officerAward / grant3,5113,511Form 4
2026-05-21Chang Kathryn M.officerAward / grant5,4949,005Form 4
2026-05-21D'Ambrosia BrianofficerAward / grant14,04466,817Form 4
2026-05-21D'Ambrosia BrianofficerAward / grant21,97888,795Form 4
2026-05-21Donovan CindyofficerAward / grant3,51121,296Form 4
2026-05-21Donovan CindyofficerAward / grant5,49426,790Form 4
2026-05-21Hawryschuk Nicholas PofficerAward / grant10,98939,871Form 4
2026-05-21Mulholland MaureenofficerAward / grant10,53342,605Form 4
2026-05-21Mulholland MaureenofficerAward / grant16,48359,088Form 4
2026-05-12D'Ambrosia BrianofficerWithheld for tax34552,773Form 4
2026-05-12Mulholland MaureenofficerWithheld for tax32632,072Form 4
2026-05-12Donovan CindyofficerWithheld for tax15517,785Form 4
2026-05-12Hawryschuk Nicholas PofficerWithheld for tax11621,860Form 4
2026-05-09D'Ambrosia BrianofficerWithheld for tax76053,118Form 4
2026-05-09Mulholland MaureenofficerWithheld for tax64832,398Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.