MNRMach Natural Resources LPas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.90 · now $10.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MNR has typically landed between $9.57 and $12.41 — a range of −12.2% to +13.8% from the issuance price $10.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MNR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.57worst · -12.2%$12.41best · +13.8%
  • now $10.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.9 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.3–$11.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.57–$12.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 692 windows spanning 2023-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-11-21−19.1%−19.1%+0.0%
2025-02-04−18.7%−18.7%+0.0%
2023-11-20−18.7%−18.7%+0.0%
3 best
2026-01-20+22.6%+0.0%+22.6%
2026-01-16+22.3%+0.0%+22.3%
2023-12-21+21.6%+0.0%+21.6%

692 overlapping windows · 2023-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+6.0%
n=3
Feb
67%
+3.4%
n=3
Mar
100%
+5.7%
n=3
Apr
33%
−2.7%
n=3
May
67%
+0.7%
n=3
Jun
33%
+0.8%
n=3
Jul
100%
+4.1%
n=3
Aug
33%
−1.8%
n=3
Sep
0%
−12.4%
n=3
Oct
50%
−4.1%
n=2
Nov
67%
−0.9%
n=3
Dec
33%
−1.1%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$102026-09-14: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — WARD TOM L.2026-04-13: 2 insider purchases, $2.0M — WARD TOM L. …2026-04-08: 2 insider sales, $71.2M — IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. …2026-03-23: 1 insider purchase, $44K — McMullen William Wallace2026-03-20: 2 insider purchases, $49K — McMullen William Wallace, Burn Christopher2026-03-19: 2 insider purchases, $64K — McMullen William Wallace, Burn Christopher2025-12-09: 1 insider purchase, $216K — McMullen William Wallace2025-12-08: 1 insider purchase, $157K — McMullen William Wallace2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $465K — WARD TOM L.2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $500K — WARD TOM L.2025-11-17: 1 insider purchase, $500K — WARD TOM L.2025-11-14: 2 insider purchases, $555K — WARD TOM L., McMullen William Wallace2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $44K2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $2.0M2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $372K2026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $157K2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $2.0M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $71.2M2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $2.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2026-04-13, filed same daydirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2026-04-13, filed same daytenPercentOwner IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner IKAV General Partner S.a r.l. — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2026-03-23, filed same daydirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Burn Christopher — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Burn Christopher — Purchase on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2025-11-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector WARD TOM L. — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McMullen William Wallace — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14WARD TOM L.directorPurchase172,413 @ $11.60$2.0M+1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,467,452Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-13WARD TOM L.directorPurchase76,628 @ $13.05$1000K+0.6% of holding+3.8%not yet — horizon still open13,295,039Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-13WARD TOM L.directorPurchase76,628 @ $13.05$1000Kownership Δ n/a+3.8%not yet — horizon still open76,628Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-08IKAV General Partner S.a r.l.tenPercentOwnerSale4,612,874 @ $12.81$59.1M−18.2% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open20,794,475Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08IKAV General Partner S.a r.l.tenPercentOwnerSale944,805 @ $12.81$12.1M−18.2% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open4,259,110Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase3,215 @ $13.63$44K+0.0% of holding−9.6%not yet — horizon still open74,859,917Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-20McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase2,500 @ $14.00$35K+0.0% of holding−15.1%not yet — horizon still open74,856,702Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-20Burn ChristopherdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $13.85$14K+6.9% of holding−15.1%not yet — horizon still open15,587Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase3,570 @ $14.00$50K+0.0% of holding−16.4%not yet — horizon still open74,854,202Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19Burn ChristopherdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $14.07$14K+7.4% of holding−16.4%not yet — horizon still open14,587Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-09McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase17,500 @ $12.32$216K+0.0% of holding−13.3%+8.0%74,850,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase12,500 @ $12.53$157K+0.0% of holding−11.3%+12.0%74,833,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26WARD TOM L.directorPurchase40,000 @ $11.63$465K+31.5% of holding−6.7%+12.6%167,030Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25WARD TOM L.directorPurchase43,660 @ $11.45$500K+52.4% of holding−3.8%+15.2%127,030Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-17WARD TOM L.directorPurchase41,740 @ $11.98$500K+100.3% of holding−0.3%+20.6%83,370Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14WARD TOM L.directorPurchase41,630 @ $12.01$500Kownership Δ n/a−4.3%+22.0%41,630Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase4,608 @ $11.85$55K+0.0% of holding−4.3%+22.0%74,820,632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-11McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase3,085 @ $14.39$44K+0.0% of holding−4.3%−17.8%74,816,024Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase144,900 @ $14.96$2.2M+0.2% of holding−4.4%−29.9%74,812,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-13McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase135,500 @ $14.72$2.0M+0.2% of holding−4.3%−30.6%74,668,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase93,500 @ $14.29$1.3M+0.1% of holding−0.0%−27.9%74,532,539Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase72,411 @ $14.01$1.0M+0.1% of holding+3.0%−24.8%74,439,039Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase79,218 @ $13.58$1.1M+0.1% of holding+6.2%−19.8%74,366,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase5,161,290 @ $15.50$80.0M+7.5% of holding−1.6%−8.5%74,287,410Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-17McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase313,978 @ $15.62$4.9M+0.5% of holding+12.7%+4.0%69,126,120Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase150,000 @ $15.33$2.3M+0.2% of holding+16.1%+10.3%68,812,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase98,751 @ $15.28$1.5M+0.1% of holding+16.0%+9.3%68,662,142Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase146,758 @ $15.01$2.2M+0.2% of holding+16.9%+7.9%68,563,391Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase125,000 @ $14.99$1.9M+0.2% of holding+20.5%+6.9%68,416,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10McMullen William WallacedirectorPurchase65,000 @ $14.83$964K+0.1% of holding+20.8%+9.7%68,291,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15IKAV General Partner S.a r.l.tenPercentOwnerOther acquisition1,422,47619,371,999Form 4
2026-04-08KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LPotherOther acquisition3,442,32115,517,713Form 4
2026-02-11WHITE KEVIN R.officerWithheld for tax5,627455,871Form 4
2026-02-11Reel Michael EofficerWithheld for tax2,53285,816Form 4
2026-02-09KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LPotherOther acquisition227,54718,960,034Form 4
2026-02-09WHITE KEVIN R.officerAward / grant11,886461,498Form 4
2026-02-09Reel Michael EofficerAward / grant5,15188,348Form 4
2026-01-01Burn ChristopherdirectorAward / grant13,58713,587Form 4
2025-10-28KEATING FRANK AdirectorAward / grant12,03929,111Form 4
2025-10-28Giesinger Edgar R. JR.directorAward / grant12,03929,111Form 4
2025-10-28Perich Stephen CdirectorAward / grant12,03929,111Form 4
2025-10-28WARD TOM L.directorWithheld for tax10,72213,728,593Form 4
2025-10-28WHITE KEVIN R.officerWithheld for tax10,107449,612Form 4
2025-10-28Reel Michael EofficerWithheld for tax2,69283,197Form 4
2025-01-29WHITE KEVIN R.officerAward / grant4,962461,908Form 4
2025-01-29Reel Michael EofficerAward / grant2,28086,938Form 4
2025-01-29WHITE KEVIN R.officerWithheld for tax2,189459,719Form 4
2025-01-29Reel Michael EofficerWithheld for tax1,04985,889Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.