Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.52 · now $2.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MNOV has typically landed between $2.07 and $3.16 — a range of −18.0% to +25.4% from the issuance price $2.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,951 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-12-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MNOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.44 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.27–$2.61
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.07–$3.16
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-03-07 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 2011-03-04 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +3.2% |
| 2011-03-08 | −55.0% | −55.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-06-19 | +174.8% | +0.0% | +174.8% |
| 2009-06-24 | +151.2% | +0.0% | +177.8% |
| 2009-06-22 | +150.0% | −10.0% | +150.0% |
4,951 overlapping windows · 2006-12-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | BEAVER CAROLYN | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Lemerond Nicole | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Nagao Hideki | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | IWAKI YUICHI | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-16 | Matsuda Kazuko | director | Award / grant | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | BEAVER CAROLYN | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Nagao Hideki | director | Award / grant | 24,500 | 24,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | BEAVER CAROLYN | director | Award / grant | 24,500 | 24,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | IWAKI YUICHI | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Lemerond Nicole | director | Award / grant | 24,500 | 24,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-12 | Matsuda Kazuko | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | IWAKI YUICHI | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | Matsuda Kazuko | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.