MNMDMind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-08-21
Horizon

Issued 2026-08-21 at $42.79 · now $42.79 (2026-08-12, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-21 close, MNMD has typically landed between $31.23 and $60.50 — a range of −27.0% to +41.4% from the issuance price $42.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,218 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-11-15 – 2026-07-14 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,405 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-21 issuance close ($42.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-21, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MNMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-21 close of $42.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.23worst · -27.0%$60.5best · +41.4%
  • now $42.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.74 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.75–$48.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.23–$60.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,218 windows spanning 2016-11-15 to 2026-08-12. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-10-30−98.8%−98.8%+481.8%
2019-05-01−98.3%−98.3%+0.0%
2019-06-20−98.2%−98.2%+0.0%
3 best
2019-12-26+6150.0%+0.0%+55900.0%
2019-12-24+4900.0%−20.0%+44700.0%
2019-12-23+4900.0%−20.0%+44700.0%

2,218 overlapping windows · 2016-11-15 – 2026-08-12 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+83.9%
n=10
Feb
70%
+11.6%
n=10
Mar
40%
+94.6%
n=10
Apr
60%
+59.0%
n=10
May
40%
−3.5%
n=10
Jun
50%
+0.4%
n=10
Jul
40%
−4.0%
n=10
Aug
40%
+34.7%
n=10
Sep
33%
−2.8%
n=9
Oct
67%
+5.4%
n=9
Nov
33%
+5.9%
n=9
Dec
60%
+92.3%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-082025-07$48$72025-12-26: 3 insider sales, $561K — Barrow Robert, Sullivan Mark, Karlin Daniel2025-09-25: 3 insider sales, $437K — Barrow Robert, Sullivan Mark, Karlin Daniel2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $437K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $561K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Barrow Robert — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sullivan Mark — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Karlin Daniel — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Barrow Robert — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sullivan Mark — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karlin Daniel — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-26Barrow RobertdirectorSale25,791 @ $13.15$339K−3.2% of holding+28.2%+251.4%778,477Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-26Sullivan MarkofficerSale11,276 @ $13.15$148K−3.8% of holding+28.2%+251.4%282,576Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-26Karlin DanielofficerSale5,600 @ $13.15$74K−1.3% of holding+28.2%+251.4%425,025Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale25,797 @ $9.77$252K−3.1% of holding+23.8%+86.1%804,268Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale11,278 @ $9.77$110K−3.7% of holding+23.8%+86.1%293,852Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-25Karlin DanielofficerSale7,704 @ $9.77$75K−1.8% of holding+23.8%+86.1%430,625Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale26,491 @ $6.80$180K−3.1% of holding+37.8%+91.0%830,065Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale11,491 @ $6.80$78K−3.6% of holding+37.8%+91.0%305,130Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25Karlin DanielofficerSale7,848 @ $6.80$53K−1.8% of holding+37.8%+91.0%438,329Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale21,208 @ $6.74$143K−2.4% of holding−0.2%+29.3%856,556Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25Karlin DanielofficerSale6,836 @ $6.74$46K−1.5% of holding−0.2%+29.3%446,177Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale6,576 @ $6.74$44K−2.0% of holding−0.2%+29.3%316,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25Liao CarrieofficerSale2,347 @ $6.74$16K−1.6% of holding−0.2%+29.3%144,923Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26Barrow RobertdirectorSale19,106 @ $7.43$142K−3.5% of holding−4.1%−15.8%526,666Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26Karlin DanielofficerSale6,643 @ $7.43$49K−1.9% of holding−4.1%−15.8%338,013Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26Sullivan MarkofficerSale4,519 @ $7.43$34K−2.5% of holding−4.1%−15.8%173,197Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26Liao CarrieofficerSale2,273 @ $7.43$17K−2.3% of holding−4.1%−15.8%97,270Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $7.17$18K+14.4% of holding+16.7%+10.9%19,851Form 4 · filed same day
2024-09-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale19,771 @ $5.98$118K−3.5% of holding+0.9%+5.8%545,772Form 4 · filed same day
2024-09-25Karlin DanielofficerSale6,871 @ $5.98$41K−2.0% of holding+0.9%+5.8%344,656Form 4 · filed same day
2024-09-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale4,430 @ $5.98$26K−2.4% of holding+0.9%+5.8%177,716Form 4 · filed same day
2024-09-25Liao CarrieofficerSale2,352 @ $5.98$14K−2.3% of holding+0.9%+5.8%99,543Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-23GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $5.98$21K+25.3% of holding−1.3%+6.8%17,351Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-08-20Barrow RobertdirectorPurchase500 @ $6.12$3K+0.1% of holding+0.1%+15.6%565,543Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-19Barrow RobertdirectorPurchase500 @ $6.31$3K+0.1% of holding−4.7%+18.8%565,043Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-06-25Sullivan MarkofficerSale17,854 @ $7.22$129K−8.9% of holding+34.4%−9.7%182,146Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale15,659 @ $7.22$113K−2.7% of holding+34.4%−9.7%564,543Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-25Karlin DanielofficerSale6,925 @ $7.22$50K−1.9% of holding+34.4%−9.7%351,527Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-25Barrow RobertdirectorSale16,519 @ $9.50$157K−2.8% of holding−16.1%−52.5%580,202Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-25Karlin DanielofficerSale6,578 @ $9.50$62K−1.8% of holding−16.1%−52.5%358,452Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2025-06-12GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorAward / grant75,18775,187Form 4
2025-06-12Vallone Carol AdirectorAward / grant75,18775,187Form 4
2025-06-12Bruhn Suzanne LouisedirectorAward / grant75,18775,187Form 4
2025-06-12Krebs AndreasdirectorAward / grant75,18775,187Form 4
2025-06-12CRYSTAL ROGERdirectorAward / grant75,18775,187Form 4
2025-06-02Roberts BrandidirectorAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2025-03-17Wiley Matthew T.officerAward / grant350,000350,000Form 4
2025-03-12Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant115,000453,013Form 4
2025-03-12Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant150,000323,197Form 4
2025-03-12Liao CarrieofficerAward / grant50,000142,270Form 4
2025-03-12Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant350,000877,764Form 4
2024-08-21Halperin Wernli MiriofficerWithheld for tax32,595202,405Form 4
2024-08-21Halperin Wernli MiriofficerOption exercise50,000235,000Form 4
2024-08-21Halperin Wernli MiriofficerOption exercise50,0000Form 4
2024-06-10GRYSKA DAVID WdirectorAward / grant16,50616,506Form 4
2024-06-10Bruhn Suzanne LouisedirectorAward / grant16,50616,506Form 4
2024-06-10Vallone Carol AdirectorAward / grant16,50616,506Form 4
2024-06-10Krebs AndreasdirectorAward / grant16,50616,506Form 4
2024-06-10CRYSTAL ROGERdirectorAward / grant16,50616,506Form 4
2024-03-25Greenway Schond L.officerWithheld for tax5,560211,057Form 4
2024-02-27Sullivan MarkofficerAward / grant125,000125,000Form 4
2024-02-27Karlin DanielofficerAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2024-02-27Liao CarrieofficerAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2024-02-27Halperin Wernli MiriofficerAward / grant125,000125,000Form 4
2024-02-27Barrow RobertdirectorAward / grant400,000400,000Form 4
2024-02-27Greenway Schond L.officerAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.