MNKDMannKind CorporationHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $3.34 · now $3.34 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MNKD has typically landed between $2.70 and $4.24 — a range of −19.2% to +27.0% from the issuance price $3.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,008 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($3.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MNKD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $3.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.7worst · -19.2%$4.24best · +27.0%
  • now $3.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.32 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.01–$3.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.7–$4.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,008 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-03-24−65.5%−66.6%+3.8%
2008-03-27−65.2%−67.6%+0.8%
2008-03-26−64.0%−66.3%+4.8%
3 best
2017-09-11+228.9%−9.3%+228.9%
2017-09-08+169.2%−6.6%+169.2%
2017-09-07+154.0%−6.6%+154.0%

5,008 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: INHALE-1st: Afrezza® For Youth With Newly-Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2028-01-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Clinical Trial of MNKD-201 (Nintedanib Dry Powder Inhalation) in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+1.5%
n=20
Feb
40%
−2.5%
n=20
Mar
35%
−3.6%
n=20
Apr
50%
−1.8%
n=20
May
60%
+13.4%
n=20
Jun
55%
+7.1%
n=20
Jul
35%
−5.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
60%
+5.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
−2.3%
n=20
Nov
40%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
−0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $128K — Binder Steven B.2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $159K — Binder Steven B.2026-07-17: 2 insider sales, $311K — Binder Steven B., Thomson David2026-05-12: 2 insider sales, $66K — Binder Steven B., Thomson David2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $259K — Castagna Michael2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $298K — Tross Stuart A2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $395K — Castagna Michael2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $128K — Castagna Michael2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $125K — Castagna Michael2025-12-02: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Thomson David, Castagna Michael2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $94K — Singh Sanjay R2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $251K — Tross Stuart A2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $251K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $94K2025-12: 5 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $298K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $259K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $66K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $311K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $159K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $128K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Binder Steven B. — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Binder Steven B. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Binder Steven B. — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed same dayofficer Thomson David — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed same daydirector Binder Steven B. — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Thomson David — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Castagna Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Tross Stuart A — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Castagna Michael — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Castagna Michael — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed same daydirector Castagna Michael — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Thomson David — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Castagna Michael — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Singh Sanjay R — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed same dayofficer Tross Stuart A — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Binder Steven B.directorSale33,558 @ $3.81$128K−4.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open752,309Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Binder Steven B.directorSale39,051 @ $4.06$159K−4.7% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open785,867Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-17Binder Steven B.directorSale52,485 @ $4.06$213K−6.0% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open824,918Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-17Thomson DavidofficerSale24,109 @ $4.05$98K−2.9% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open797,554Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12Binder Steven B.directorSale16,940 @ $3.29$56K−2.1% of holding+14.4%not yet — horizon still open808,008Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Thomson DavidofficerSale3,033 @ $3.29$10K−0.4% of holding+14.4%not yet — horizon still open826,299Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Castagna MichaeldirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.59$259K+4.0% of holding−2.6%+37.8%2,575,911Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Tross Stuart AofficerSale47,006 @ $6.33$298K−4.6% of holding−2.3%−42.0%985,007Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17Castagna MichaeldirectorSale65,804 @ $6.01$395K−2.6% of holding−9.3%−46.6%2,504,792Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16Castagna MichaeldirectorSale21,310 @ $6.00$128K−0.8% of holding−14.0%−44.2%2,504,792Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Castagna MichaeldirectorSale20,806 @ $6.00$125K−0.8% of holding−7.1%−45.5%2,504,792Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02Thomson DavidofficerSale147,780 @ $5.57$823K−14.9% of holding−0.4%−48.7%841,719Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Castagna MichaeldirectorSale107,920 @ $5.57$601K−4.1% of holding−0.4%−48.7%2,504,792Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-14Singh Sanjay RofficerSale18,777 @ $5.03$94K−4.0% of holding+15.8%−51.3%455,211Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16Tross Stuart AofficerSale47,000 @ $5.34$251K−4.4% of holding−3.7%−52.2%1,032,013Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16Binder Steven B.directorSale75,367 @ $3.94$297K−8.3% of holding−9.9%+30.4%830,508Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-16Thomson DavidofficerSale7,466 @ $3.94$29K−0.9% of holding−9.9%+30.4%841,719Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Binder Steven B.directorSale64,085 @ $4.00$256K−6.5% of holding−7.5%+33.3%925,258Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-20Binder Steven B.directorSale12,078 @ $4.40$53K−1.2% of holding−14.1%+4.1%989,343Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-20Thomson DavidofficerSale2,345 @ $4.41$10K−0.3% of holding−14.1%+4.1%879,546Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Binder Steven B.directorSale80,144 @ $4.69$376K−7.4% of holding−21.7%−5.8%1,006,611Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Thomson DavidofficerSale32,179 @ $4.68$151K−4.0% of holding−21.7%−5.8%772,427Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-22Binder Steven B.directorSale67,536 @ $6.89$465K−5.9% of holding−2.8%−39.5%1,075,026Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-11-15Binder Steven B.directorSale67,539 @ $6.76$457K−5.9% of holding−16.0%−38.8%1,075,026Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-11-06Tross Stuart AofficerSale55,000 @ $7.34$404K−5.4% of holding−11.4%−34.6%967,191Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-09-03Tross Stuart AofficerSale25,000 @ $6.26$157K−2.4% of holding+0.1%−23.5%1,022,191Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-08-30Tross Stuart AofficerSale45,000 @ $6.33$285K−4.0% of holding−1.2%−21.8%1,082,191Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-30Tross Stuart AofficerSale35,000 @ $6.32$221K−3.2% of holding−1.2%−21.8%1,047,191Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-29Castagna MichaeldirectorSale85,106 @ $6.30$536K−3.6% of holding−3.7%−22.6%2,294,836Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-29Thomson DavidofficerSale5,553 @ $5.94$33K−0.7% of holding−3.7%−22.6%829,843Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-29Binder Steven B.directorSale5,055 @ $5.94$30K−0.5% of holding−3.7%−22.6%1,075,026Form 4 · filed same day
2024-07-16Thomson DavidofficerSale3,115 @ $5.93$18K−0.4% of holding−9.8%−4.5%857,885Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-16Binder Steven B.directorSale2,836 @ $5.93$17K−0.3% of holding−9.8%−4.5%1,100,860Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-21Binder Steven B.directorSale25,952 @ $4.66$121K−2.3% of holding+5.0%+32.9%1,114,553Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-21Thomson DavidofficerSale23,537 @ $4.66$110K−2.6% of holding+5.0%+32.9%873,616Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Binder Steven B.directorSale3,618 @ $4.31$16K−0.4% of holding+3.3%+48.1%845,967Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-13Thomson DavidofficerSale3,047 @ $4.31$13K−0.4% of holding+3.3%+48.1%783,446Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax192,8192,604,160Form 4
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax63,9962,492,683Form 4
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax58,9042,433,779Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerWithheld for tax51,632868,457Form 4
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax47,4812,556,679Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerWithheld for tax33,6521,090,298Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerWithheld for tax22,047503,714Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerWithheld for tax17,754838,041Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerWithheld for tax16,378821,663Form 4
2026-07-15Binder Steven B.directorWithheld for tax15,688886,110Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerWithheld for tax12,662855,795Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerWithheld for tax12,3311,058,142Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerWithheld for tax11,5721,070,473Form 4
2026-07-15Prentiss Christopher BofficerWithheld for tax11,572329,343Form 4
2026-07-15Prentiss Christopher BofficerWithheld for tax10,675318,668Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerWithheld for tax10,079488,263Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerWithheld for tax9,297478,966Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerWithheld for tax8,2531,082,045Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerWithheld for tax5,372498,342Form 4
2026-07-15Binder Steven B.directorWithheld for tax4,634877,403Form 4
2026-07-15Binder Steven B.directorWithheld for tax4,073882,037Form 4
2026-07-15Marasco DominicofficerWithheld for tax3,623343,398Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerOption exercise93,7901,123,950Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerOption exercise93,790920,089Form 4
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorOption exercise350,2600Form 4
2026-07-15Binder Steven B.directorOption exercise93,790901,798Form 4
2026-07-15Tross Stuart AofficerOption exercise93,7900Form 4
2026-07-15Binder Steven B.directorOption exercise93,7900Form 4
2026-07-15Castagna MichaeldirectorOption exercise350,2602,796,979Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerOption exercise70,550525,761Form 4
2026-07-15Thomson DavidofficerOption exercise93,7900Form 4
2026-07-15Singh Sanjay RofficerOption exercise70,5500Form 4
2026-05-20Tross Stuart AofficerAward / grant33,8981,026,122Form 4
2026-05-20Consiglio Ronald JdirectorAward / grant10,000132,342Form 4
2026-05-20Marasco DominicofficerAward / grant8,474344,246Form 4
2026-05-20Shannon James SamueldirectorAward / grant82,78182,781Form 4
2026-05-20Friedman Michael AdirectorAward / grant82,78182,781Form 4
2026-05-20Consiglio Ronald JdirectorAward / grant82,78182,781Form 4
2026-05-20Consiglio Ronald JdirectorAward / grant16,55616,556Form 4
2026-05-20HOOPER ANTHONY CdirectorAward / grant82,78182,781Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.