Issued 2026-09-16 at $86.14 · now $86.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MMSI has typically landed between $75.96 and $97.02 — a range of −11.8% to +12.6% from the issuance price $86.14.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($86.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MMSI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $86.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $86.14 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $86.48 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $81.53–$91.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $75.96–$97.02
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-04 | −39.8% | −39.8% | +1.6% |
| 2009-02-03 | −38.3% | −38.3% | +3.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +40.9% | +0.0% | +40.9% |
| 2008-07-01 | +39.4% | +0.0% | +39.4% |
| 2008-07-07 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +38.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.1%
n=20
Feb
35%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
45%
+0.4%
n=20
Apr
55%
+3.1%
n=20
May
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
75%
+4.3%
n=20
Jul
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.8%
n=20
Oct
40%
+1.2%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
50%
+2.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $90.45 | $678K | −29.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Sale | 21,449 @ $85.00 | $1.8M | −45.6% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Smith Christian Adam | officer | Purchase | 1,626 @ $61.00 | $99K | +273.7% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Ward Lynne N. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $62.61 | $313K | −39.0% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $62.63 | $125K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Aronson Martha Goldberg | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $60.44 | $121K | +4.2% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $61.01 | $92K | +2.6% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Purchase | 2,250 @ $60.65 | $136K | +15000.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $90.00 | $450K | −15.0% of holding | −12.4% | −32.4% | 28,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $88.04 | $880K | −1.0% of holding | −2.8% | −40.7% | 1,019,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $87.31 | $2.2M | −2.4% of holding | −4.2% | −42.8% | 1,029,955 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $85.13 | $1.7M | −1.9% of holding | −1.7% | −39.7% | 1,054,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $84.83 | $424K | −0.5% of holding | +1.4% | −37.6% | 1,074,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Ward Lynne N. | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $88.56 | $266K | −19.0% of holding | −9.5% | −15.0% | 12,809 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Ward Lynne N. | director | Sale | 2,433 @ $84.89 | $207K | −16.0% of holding | +3.1% | −11.6% | 12,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Sale | 15,181 @ $93.75 | $1.4M | −38.5% of holding | −14.6% | −21.6% | 24,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 400 @ $95.61 | $38K | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −26.3% | 1,045,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $95.19 | $952K | −0.9% of holding | −4.8% | −27.7% | 1,046,028 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | McDonnell Michael R. | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $94.51 | $165K | −21.5% of holding | −5.1% | −23.2% | 6,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $95.12 | $951K | −0.9% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 1,056,028 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Floyd David | director | Sale | 3,515 @ $94.16 | $331K | −41.9% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 4,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | McDonnell Michael R. | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $94.30 | $165K | −17.7% of holding | −6.2% | −25.5% | 8,145 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $96.54 | $1.9M | −1.8% of holding | −7.6% | −23.4% | 1,066,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Millner F. Ann Ed.D. | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $96.47 | $2.0M | −38.1% of holding | −6.0% | −24.9% | 34,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $104.53 | $523K | −15.0% of holding | −11.2% | −42.0% | 28,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $102.90 | $3.1M | −43.5% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 38,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $103.75 | $2.1M | −1.8% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 1,086,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 11,320 @ $104.05 | $1.2M | −1.0% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 1,106,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Sale | 5,361 @ $103.58 | $555K | −18.1% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 24,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 2,590 @ $103.75 | $269K | −25.1% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 7,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Lampropoulos Fred P. | director | Sale | 410 @ $103.75 | $43K | −3.8% of holding | +6.8% | −24.1% | 10,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Evans Stephen C. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $105.31 | $527K | −51.8% of holding | +6.0% | −22.3% | 4,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $105.00 | $525K | −15.0% of holding | +6.0% | −22.3% | 28,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $99.50 | $2.5M | −39.1% of holding | +9.2% | −20.5% | 38,993 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Sale | 13,809 @ $99.68 | $1.4M | −38.1% of holding | +9.2% | −20.5% | 22,399 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Sale | 12,451 @ $98.81 | $1.2M | −34.0% of holding | +9.2% | −20.5% | 24,201 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Lewis Sheri | officer | Award / grant | 8,371 | 8,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Gift | 650 | 45,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Gift | 65 | 46,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Gift | 2,000 | 60,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gunderson Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 13,750 | 53,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gunderson Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 60,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gunderson Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gunderson Thomas J. | director | Option exercise | 13,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Kaiser Laura S. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 13,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Perez Silvia M. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 8,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carpenter Lonny J. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 20,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | McDonnell Michael R. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 9,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Ward Scott R. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 3,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Millner F. Ann Ed.D. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Ward Lynne N. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 11,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Evans Stephen C. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 10,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Gunderson Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 3,457 | 39,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,698 | 46,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,061 | 47,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,778 | 62,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,778 | 57,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Christian Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,018 | 30,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Award / grant | 10,254 | 44,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 17,002 | 63,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 12,305 | 36,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Award / grant | 17,002 | 52,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Aronson Martha Goldberg | director | Award / grant | 28,198 | 47,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Award / grant | 7,690 | 29,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Voigt Michel J. | officer | Award / grant | 6,409 | 35,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Award / grant | 7,690 | 36,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Award / grant | 17,002 | 53,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Award / grant | 17,002 | 67,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Christian Adam | officer | Award / grant | 8,203 | 19,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Christian Adam | officer | Award / grant | 6,409 | 25,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Smith Christian Adam | officer | Award / grant | 6,762 | 32,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Lloyd Brian G. | officer | Award / grant | 6,409 | 50,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Parra Raul Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 9,613 | 46,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 33,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Peterson Neil W. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Aronson Martha Goldberg | director | Award / grant | 19,594 | 19,594 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.