Issued 2026-09-16 at $162.65 · now $162.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MMM has typically landed between $143.72 and $184.72 — a range of −11.6% to +13.6% from the issuance price $162.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($162.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MMM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $162.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $162.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $164.22 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $156.84–$171.59
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $143.72–$184.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −24.9% | −24.9% | +0.0% |
| 2019-04-18 | −24.0% | −24.0% | +0.3% |
| 2019-04-24 | −23.6% | −24.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-01 | +26.8% | −0.9% | +26.8% |
| 2024-07-25 | +26.3% | +0.0% | +26.3% |
| 2024-06-26 | +25.3% | −1.7% | +25.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$33.51
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$172.58
- Analyst target · range $145.00–$218.00$190.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$162.65
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Chavez Rodriguez Beatriz Karina | officer | Sale | 3,635 @ $182.51 | $663K | −20.6% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Sale | 7,880 @ $170.44 | $1.3M | −13.6% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 924 @ $169.42 | $157K | −26.1% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Rhodes Kevin H | officer | Sale | 7,669 @ $171.20 | $1.3M | −14.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Goralski Christian T JR | officer | Sale | 4,902 @ $170.46 | $836K | −41.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 1,946 @ $172.73 | $336K | −40.5% of holding | −8.0% | −6.3% | 2,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 1,796 @ $172.79 | $310K | −41.0% of holding | −8.0% | −6.3% | 2,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 1,123 @ $172.72 | $194K | −18.9% of holding | −8.0% | −6.3% | 4,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 240 @ $172.74 | $41K | −8.4% of holding | −8.0% | −6.3% | 2,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Sale | 40 @ $172.75 | $7K | −1.5% of holding | −8.0% | −6.3% | 2,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 25,055 @ $170.34 | $4.3M | −54.3% of holding | −5.9% | −3.0% | 21,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 20,519 @ $169.97 | $3.5M | −49.3% of holding | −5.9% | −3.0% | 21,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Chavez Rodriguez Beatriz Karina | officer | Sale | 1,190 @ $171.13 | $204K | −6.3% of holding | −5.9% | −3.0% | 17,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 6,050 @ $169.72 | $1.0M | −40.6% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 5,422 @ $169.83 | $921K | −36.3% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 9,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 2,377 @ $169.82 | $404K | −21.3% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 2,225 @ $169.86 | $378K | −26.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 1,108 @ $169.87 | $188K | −12.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 7,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 1,090 @ $169.80 | $185K | −6.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 15,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 759 @ $169.79 | $129K | −4.3% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 16,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 695 @ $169.78 | $118K | −3.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 17,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 579 @ $169.75 | $98K | −3.0% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 18,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 555 @ $169.81 | $94K | −7.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 474 @ $169.80 | $80K | −6.0% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 7,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 461 @ $169.81 | $78K | −2.9% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 15,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 450 @ $169.89 | $76K | −6.0% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 362 @ $169.85 | $61K | −3.9% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 337 @ $169.94 | $57K | −5.2% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 314 @ $169.86 | $53K | −3.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,655 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 305 @ $169.79 | $52K | −3.7% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 7,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 300 @ $169.91 | $51K | −4.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 300 @ $169.76 | $51K | −3.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 246 @ $169.82 | $42K | −1.6% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 14,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 243 @ $169.83 | $41K | −3.6% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 224 @ $169.83 | $38K | −2.6% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 205 @ $169.82 | $35K | −3.0% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 201 @ $169.81 | $34K | −1.3% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 15,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 200 @ $169.77 | $34K | −2.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 176 @ $169.85 | $30K | −2.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 175 @ $169.90 | $30K | −2.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 167 @ $169.76 | $28K | −0.9% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 18,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 166 @ $169.84 | $28K | −1.7% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 9,361 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 150 @ $169.84 | $25K | −1.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 150 @ $169.72 | $25K | −0.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 19,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 130 @ $169.71 | $22K | −0.7% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 19,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 128 @ $169.74 | $22K | −0.7% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 19,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 106 @ $169.84 | $18K | −1.6% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 106 @ $169.70 | $18K | −0.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 19,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 102 @ $169.87 | $17K | −1.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 7,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 100 @ $169.82 | $17K | −0.9% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 11,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 100 @ $169.77 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 18,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 100 @ $169.75 | $17K | −1.1% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 36 @ $169.78 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 30 @ $169.85 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 8,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 20 @ $169.78 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 17,706 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 14 @ $169.92 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 10 @ $169.73 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 19,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Sale | 7 @ $169.91 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −3.8% | −20.3% | 6,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Murphy Mark W. | officer | Sale | 6,611 @ $166.50 | $1.1M | −25.8% of holding | +5.5% | −18.1% | 19,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Murphy Mark W. | officer | Sale | 2,183 @ $166.52 | $364K | −12.0% of holding | +5.5% | −18.1% | 16,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
202 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | George Bobby K | director | Award / grant | 15,860 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | George Bobby K | director | Award / grant | 15,860 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cunningham Jennifer A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,049 | 7,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | George Bobby K | director | Award / grant | 15,860 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cunningham Jennifer A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,049 | 7,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | George Bobby K | director | Award / grant | 15,860 | 15,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cunningham Jennifer A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,049 | 7,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cunningham Jennifer A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,049 | 7,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 7,880 | 57,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 7,880 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Rhodes Kevin H | officer | Option exercise | 7,669 | 51,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Goralski Christian T JR | officer | Option exercise | 4,902 | 11,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Rhodes Kevin H | officer | Option exercise | 7,669 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Goralski Christian T JR | officer | Option exercise | 4,902 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bauer Wendy A | officer | Option exercise | 7,952 | 12,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bauer Wendy A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,558 | 9,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bauer Wendy A | officer | Option exercise | 7,952 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | director | Award / grant | 1,196 | 1,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 1,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fitterling James R | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 7,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | PIZARRO PEDRO | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 7,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sweet Thomas W | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 5,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Choi Audrey | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 6,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chow Anne H | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 5,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bozeman David P | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 1,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | BROWN THOMAS K | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 17,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Kereere Suzan | director | Award / grant | 1,360 | 6,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 13,420 | 55,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Brown William M | director | Option exercise | 8,578 | 13,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,120 | 49,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Brown William M | director | Withheld for tax | 3,912 | 9,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Option exercise | 1,441 | 4,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Withheld for tax | 517 | 3,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Reinseth Theresa E | officer | Option exercise | 1,441 | 1,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Banovetz John Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 13,420 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Brown William M | director | Option exercise | 8,578 | 8,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Option exercise | 984 | 21,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Withheld for tax | 449 | 21,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dickson Zoe L | officer | Option exercise | 984 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gallagher Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 9,291 | 9,291 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Tina Smith | Senate | sale | 2026-04-02 | 2026-03-31 | $50–100K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-02 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.