Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.54 · now $27.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MLYS has typically landed between $21.11 and $35.85 — a range of −23.3% to +30.2% from the issuance price $27.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
880 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-02-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MLYS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.83 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.73–$29.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.11–$35.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 880 windows spanning 2023-02-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-16 | −37.4% | −37.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-24 | −32.0% | −32.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-13 | −29.8% | −29.8% | +5.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-07 | +199.1% | +0.0% | +199.1% |
| 2025-08-08 | +196.6% | +0.0% | +196.6% |
| 2025-08-11 | +181.7% | +0.0% | +192.3% |
880 overlapping windows · 2023-02-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−1.4%
n=3
Feb
33%
+8.1%
n=3
Mar
25%
+9.6%
n=4
Apr
0%
−7.8%
n=4
May
100%
+9.6%
n=4
Jun
25%
−4.1%
n=4
Jul
50%
−3.0%
n=4
Aug
75%
+0.3%
n=4
Sep
50%
+31.0%
n=4
Oct
67%
−0.2%
n=3
Nov
33%
−4.3%
n=3
Dec
33%
+3.2%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Sale | 7,437 @ $25.98 | $193K | −16.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,170 @ $27.09 | $59K | −4.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Sale | 7,438 @ $26.87 | $200K | −16.2% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 416 @ $26.53 | $11K | −0.8% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,384 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,349 @ $26.61 | $169K | −11.0% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 14,058 @ $27.58 | $388K | −19.6% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 10,700 @ $27.24 | $291K | −1.7% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,621 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,171 @ $30.30 | $66K | −3.6% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 58,000 @ $25.94 | $1.5M | −8.4% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 631,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 17,000 @ $26.82 | $456K | −2.7% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 614,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Warren Eric | officer | Sale | 104,124 @ $25.90 | $2.7M | −73.1% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 4,584 @ $25.00 | $115K | −7.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Karydas Daphne | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $25.00 | $75K | −32.6% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 9,890 @ $23.81 | $235K | −14.8% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,349 @ $23.93 | $152K | −9.1% of holding | +13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,443 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,170 @ $25.00 | $54K | −3.3% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 417 @ $27.55 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 14,056 @ $28.58 | $402K | −18.1% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,443 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,348 @ $29.36 | $186K | −8.3% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,171 @ $29.71 | $65K | −3.0% of holding | −18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 416 @ $31.33 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,792 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,348 @ $27.66 | $176K | −8.3% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-13 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 15,730 @ $26.83 | $422K | −2.2% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 689,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 14,058 @ $26.54 | $373K | −15.6% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,170 @ $27.38 | $59K | −2.8% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 55,183 @ $26.54 | $1.5M | −7.3% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 705,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 19,364 @ $25.50 | $494K | −2.5% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 760,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Karydas Daphne | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $25.00 | $75K | −32.6% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 453 @ $27.05 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 705,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 58,300 @ $24.16 | $1.4M | +1.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,825,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 310,700 @ $23.67 | $7.4M | +5.7% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,767,221 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 417 @ $25.65 | $11K | −0.5% of holding | +17.3% | −2.9% | 76,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 10,726 @ $25.91 | $278K | −11.9% of holding | −0.8% | −5.0% | 79,472 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 3,079 @ $27.37 | $84K | −3.9% of holding | −0.8% | −5.0% | 76,393 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 253 @ $27.82 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −0.8% | −5.0% | 76,140 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,348 @ $27.37 | $174K | −7.1% of holding | −2.7% | −10.9% | 82,489 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,171 @ $26.84 | $58K | −2.6% of holding | +2.0% | +0.7% | 82,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 417 @ $27.59 | $12K | −0.9% of holding | −11.3% | −17.7% | 44,089 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,348 @ $27.58 | $175K | −12.6% of holding | −7.7% | −19.6% | 44,089 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 4,166 @ $27.33 | $114K | −7.6% of holding | −7.7% | −19.6% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 3,541 @ $27.33 | $97K | −6.6% of holding | −7.7% | −19.6% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 5,828 @ $28.94 | $169K | −10.3% of holding | −5.8% | −22.5% | 50,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 521 @ $29.64 | $15K | −1.0% of holding | −5.8% | −22.5% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,171 @ $30.21 | $66K | −4.1% of holding | −9.3% | −25.5% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 416 @ $32.10 | $13K | −0.8% of holding | −13.1% | −26.3% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 11,367 @ $32.61 | $371K | −18.4% of holding | −16.2% | −27.2% | 50,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 7,709 @ $32.75 | $252K | −11.1% of holding | −13.6% | −26.6% | 61,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Levy Adam Scott | officer | Sale | 10,758 @ $32.14 | $346K | −55.5% of holding | −9.2% | −26.3% | 8,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 9,119 @ $32.21 | $294K | −1.4% of holding | −9.2% | −26.3% | 646,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Congleton Jon | director | Sale | 7,117 @ $33.15 | $236K | −1.1% of holding | −9.2% | −26.3% | 639,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 6,348 @ $32.32 | $205K | −9.3% of holding | −9.2% | −26.3% | 61,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 2,170 @ $33.27 | $72K | −3.4% of holding | −6.6% | −27.1% | 61,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 139,245 @ $34.83 | $4.8M | −54.7% of holding | −13.9% | −23.7% | 115,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 53,470 @ $35.53 | $1.9M | −46.4% of holding | −13.9% | −23.7% | 61,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Sale | 70,037 @ $35.87 | $2.5M | −50.3% of holding | −12.6% | −24.7% | 69,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Slingsby Brian Taylor | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $43.35 | $43.4M | −11.2% of holding | −15.6% | −44.1% | 7,903,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Gold Alexander M | director | Sale | 12,742 @ $46.50 | $593K | −100.0% of holding | −20.0% | −51.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Karydas Daphne | director | Sale | 10,115 @ $45.81 | $463K | −67.4% of holding | −20.0% | −51.0% | 4,885 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Karydas Daphne | director | Sale | 4,885 @ $46.36 | $226K | −100.0% of holding | −20.0% | −51.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | Gold Alexander M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $46.50 | $233K | −72.1% of holding | −21.8% | −50.9% | 1,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
184 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,437 | 45,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,437 | 238,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,170 | 53,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,170 | 13,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ferguson James J. III | officer | Award / grant | 102,400 | 102,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ferguson James J. III | officer | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,438 | 45,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 7,438 | 245,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 416 | 51,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 416 | 3,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,167 | 65,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,542 | 61,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,349 | 71,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,349 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,167 | 79,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,542 | 109,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,171 | 59,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,171 | 15,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 104,124 | 142,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Warren Eric | officer | Option exercise | 104,124 | 252,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,167 | 61,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Karydas Daphne | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 9,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 417 | 61,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 417 | 3,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,167 | 83,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Karydas Daphne | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,542 | 66,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,542 | 113,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,349 | 69,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,349 | 6,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,170 | 65,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 2,170 | 17,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 417 | 63,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 417 | 4,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,166 | 77,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,541 | 73,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 3,541 | 116,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 4,166 | 87,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,348 | 76,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Rodman David Malcom | officer | Option exercise | 6,348 | 12,698 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.