Issued 2026-09-25 at $12.04 · now $12.04 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MLTX has typically landed between $9.36 and $16.84 — a range of −22.3% to +39.9% from the issuance price $12.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,467 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-20 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($12.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MLTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $12.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.15 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.03–$13.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.36–$16.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,467 windows spanning 2020-10-20 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-08-29 | −87.3% | −87.3% | +11.2% |
| 2025-09-02 | −87.3% | −87.9% | +5.9% |
| 2025-08-28 | −86.9% | −86.9% | +13.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-23 | +128.0% | +0.0% | +128.0% |
| 2023-06-13 | +124.4% | +0.0% | +124.4% |
| 2023-06-14 | +117.9% | −3.5% | +117.9% |
1,467 overlapping windows · 2020-10-20 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-01-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Sonelokimab in Patients With Active Psoriatic Arthritis and Anti-TNFα Inadequate Response (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-02-04 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Evaluation of Sonelokimab in Patients With Active Psoriatic Arthritis Naive to Biologic Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-02-04 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sonelokimab in Participants With Psoriatic Arthritis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-13 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sonelokimab in Participants With Moderate to Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+1.1%
n=6
Feb
50%
+8.4%
n=6
Mar
67%
+3.3%
n=6
Apr
17%
−11.4%
n=6
May
50%
+10.1%
n=6
Jun
83%
+14.9%
n=6
Jul
50%
+5.2%
n=6
Aug
50%
+4.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
−17.2%
n=6
Oct
60%
+6.1%
n=5
Nov
67%
+9.9%
n=6
Dec
50%
+7.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $20.00 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | −25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,711,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 2,448 @ $20.00 | $49K | −0.1% of holding | −18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,712,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $20.02 | $1.0M | −1.8% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,714,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 43,700 @ $20.09 | $878K | −1.6% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,764,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 16,105 @ $20.01 | $322K | −0.6% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,808,446 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 68,289 @ $20.02 | $1.4M | −2.4% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,774,893 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 33,936 @ $20.01 | $679K | −1.2% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,843,182 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 47,775 @ $20.03 | $957K | −1.6% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,877,118 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 39,120 @ $22.04 | $862K | −3.4% of holding | −14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,115,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 2,794 @ $19.60 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,154,555 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $19.43 | $972K | −1.7% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,824,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 15,082 @ $19.68 | $297K | −1.3% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,157,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $18.70 | $935K | −1.7% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,874,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $18.89 | $945K | −1.7% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,924,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 13,653 @ $20.02 | $273K | −1.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,172,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 2,426 @ $19.56 | $47K | −0.2% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,186,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 51,873 @ $18.23 | $946K | −1.7% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,924,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 98,127 @ $18.41 | $1.8M | −3.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,976,766 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 1,925 @ $19.51 | $38K | −0.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,188,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Sale | 85,870 @ $18.94 | $1.6M | −6.7% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,190,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 1,932,354 @ $16.79 | $32.4M | −18.9% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,302,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 1,569,116 @ $16.79 | $26.3M | −19.2% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,599,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 248,530 @ $16.79 | $4.2M | −19.3% of holding | −22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,039,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 72,908 @ $14.43 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +25.2% | +13.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $14.49 | $1.0M | −2.4% of holding | +25.2% | +13.4% | 2,878,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 130,000 @ $15.08 | $2.0M | −4.2% of holding | −6.0% | +9.3% | 2,948,577 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 130,000 @ $15.08 | $2.0M | −64.1% of holding | −6.0% | +9.3% | 72,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Purchase | 10,870 @ $9.09 | $99K | +1.8% of holding | +13.5% | +95.8% | 627,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Chen Bihua | director | Sale | 5,827 @ $6.96 | $41K | −0.3% of holding | +30.8% | +131.5% | 1,994,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Chen Bihua | director | Sale | 3,390,943 @ $7.58 | $25.7M | −41.4% of holding | −88.0% | −68.8% | 4,800,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Chen Bihua | director | Sale | 2,800,000 @ $6.61 | $18.5M | −58.3% of holding | −88.0% | −68.8% | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Chen Bihua | director | Sale | 232,460 @ $8.40 | $2.0M | −2.8% of holding | −88.0% | −68.8% | 8,190,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Chen Bihua | director | Sale | 70,748 @ $9.38 | $664K | −0.8% of holding | −88.0% | −68.8% | 8,423,403 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Moukheibir Catherine | director | Sale | 23,500 @ $48.79 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +8.1% | −87.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-04 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 1,030,589 @ $50.00 | $51.5M | −9.1% of holding | −15.5% | −27.8% | 10,235,089 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-04 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 836,862 @ $50.00 | $41.8M | −9.3% of holding | −15.5% | −27.8% | 8,168,838 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-04 | Sturge Simon | director | Sale | 171,000 @ $53.72 | $9.2M | −49.9% of holding | −15.5% | −27.8% | 171,980 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-04 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Sale | 132,549 @ $50.00 | $6.6M | −9.3% of holding | −15.5% | −27.8% | 1,287,768 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-29 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 4,740 @ $55.89 | $265K | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | −12.2% | 2,982,814 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-28 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 56,065 @ $55.00 | $3.1M | −1.8% of holding | −15.2% | −28.6% | 2,987,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 31,910 @ $55.00 | $1.8M | −1.1% of holding | −15.2% | −28.6% | 2,925,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-28 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 28,090 @ $55.00 | $1.5M | −40.1% of holding | −15.2% | −28.6% | 41,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 62,810 @ $55.00 | $3.5M | −2.0% of holding | −11.8% | −25.8% | 3,043,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 29,491 @ $55.00 | $1.6M | −1.0% of holding | −11.8% | −25.8% | 2,957,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 29,431 @ $55.00 | $1.6M | −29.6% of holding | −11.8% | −25.8% | 70,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-21 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 1,125 @ $55.27 | $62K | −0.0% of holding | −7.6% | −21.3% | 3,106,429 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-21 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 569 @ $55.30 | $31K | −0.6% of holding | −7.6% | −21.3% | 99,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-21 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 509 @ $55.31 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | −7.6% | −21.3% | 2,986,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-20 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $57.44 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | −15.4% | −23.5% | 3,107,554 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-20 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $57.45 | $575K | −0.3% of holding | −15.4% | −23.5% | 2,987,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-20 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $57.43 | $574K | −9.1% of holding | −15.4% | −23.5% | 100,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-16 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $60.15 | $1.2M | −0.6% of holding | −19.1% | −30.9% | 3,127,554 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-16 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.15 | $602K | −8.3% of holding | −19.1% | −30.9% | 110,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-16 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.15 | $602K | −0.3% of holding | −19.1% | −30.9% | 2,997,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-15 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $60.18 | $1.2M | −0.6% of holding | −21.6% | −30.9% | 3,147,554 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-15 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.17 | $602K | −0.3% of holding | −21.6% | −30.9% | 3,007,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-15 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.16 | $602K | −7.7% of holding | −21.6% | −30.9% | 120,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-14 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $62.43 | $624K | −7.1% of holding | −27.0% | −34.8% | 130,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-14 | Reich Kristian | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $62.42 | $624K | −0.3% of holding | −27.0% | −34.8% | 3,017,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Xavier Ramnik | director | Award / grant | 22,195 | 22,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Moukheibir Catherine | director | Award / grant | 22,195 | 22,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Loy Spike | director | Award / grant | 22,195 | 22,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Phillips Andrew John | director | Award / grant | 22,195 | 22,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Award / grant | 22,195 | 22,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Reich Kristian | officer | Award / grant | 520,342 | 520,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Award / grant | 354,296 | 1,276,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Award / grant | 520,342 | 520,342 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Conversion | 8,754 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 35,389 | 35,389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Disposition | 35,389 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 1,052 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Conversion | 196,316 | 3,074,893 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Disposition | 196,316 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Conversion | 5,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Conversion | 196,316 | 3,074,893 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Disposition | 196,316 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Santos da Silva Jorge | director | Conversion | 5,836 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 35,389 | 35,389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Disposition | 35,389 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 1,052 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Conversion | 294,473 | 922,009 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Disposition | 294,473 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Conversion | 8,754 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Conversion | 294,473 | 922,009 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Disposition | 294,473 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Reich Kristian | officer | Disposition | 48,978 | 35,389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 48,978 | 202,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Reich Kristian | officer | Disposition | 48,978 | 35,389 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Reich Kristian | officer | Conversion | 48,978 | 202,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-03 | Moukheibir Catherine | director | Option exercise | 23,500 | 21,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-03 | Moukheibir Catherine | director | Option exercise | 23,500 | 23,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Sturge Simon | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Xavier Ramnik | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Loy Spike | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | BVF PARTNERS L P/IL | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Phillips Andrew John | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Moukheibir Catherine | director | Award / grant | 6,682 | 6,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Reich Kristian | officer | Award / grant | 139,273 | 139,273 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Bodenstedt Matthias | officer | Award / grant | 95,763 | 616,666 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.