Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.92 · now $15.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MLP has typically landed between $13.87 and $18.63 — a range of −12.9% to +17.0% from the issuance price $15.92.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MLP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.92 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.97 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.03–$16.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.87–$18.63
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-12-23 | −60.2% | −60.2% | +0.2% |
| 2009-12-24 | −56.7% | −59.3% | +2.2% |
| 2008-09-30 | −53.1% | −53.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-01-26 | +100.0% | +0.0% | +105.5% |
| 2010-01-27 | +82.0% | +0.0% | +93.2% |
| 2010-02-05 | +75.5% | +0.0% | +75.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 300 @ $17.00 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | −2.5% | −6.7% | 11,987,834 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.79 | $84K | +0.0% of holding | −2.5% | −7.4% | 11,987,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 450 @ $16.29 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | −1.9% | −2.5% | 11,982,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $16.38 | $49K | +0.0% of holding | +4.2% | +3.3% | 11,982,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,630 @ $15.99 | $42K | +0.0% of holding | +1.2% | −5.7% | 11,979,084 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.94 | $80K | +0.0% of holding | +5.2% | −2.0% | 11,976,454 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.91 | $80K | +0.0% of holding | +6.1% | −6.3% | 11,971,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 400 @ $15.47 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | +6.4% | −8.0% | 11,966,454 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,109 @ $15.48 | $33K | +0.0% of holding | +7.9% | −7.4% | 11,966,054 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.36 | $77K | +0.0% of holding | +9.6% | −3.3% | 11,963,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.13 | $76K | +0.0% of holding | +11.3% | +2.1% | 11,958,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.29 | $71K | +0.0% of holding | +14.2% | +3.1% | 11,953,945 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Randle Race A. | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $14.48 | $29K | +3.7% of holding | +14.2% | +3.1% | 56,597 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $14.46 | $72K | +0.0% of holding | +14.5% | +5.0% | 11,948,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Randle Race A. | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $14.24 | $43K | +5.8% of holding | +14.5% | +5.0% | 54,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.48 | $36K | +0.0% of holding | +16.1% | +8.7% | 11,943,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 967 @ $17.00 | $16K | +0.0% of holding | −2.5% | −9.3% | 11,941,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.96 | $42K | +0.0% of holding | −1.7% | −10.2% | 11,940,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.91 | $42K | +0.0% of holding | −0.7% | −9.2% | 11,937,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 132 @ $16.99 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −0.2% | −9.6% | 119,935,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 881 @ $16.99 | $15K | +0.0% of holding | −0.1% | −8.7% | 119,935,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 320 @ $17.00 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +7.7% | −11.3% | 11,934,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 200 @ $16.99 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +8.7% | −8.9% | 11,934,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.99 | $42K | +0.0% of holding | +10.8% | −9.6% | 11,933,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.52 | $41K | +0.0% of holding | +12.2% | −9.9% | 11,931,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.15 | $40K | +0.0% of holding | +13.9% | −3.8% | 11,928,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.25 | $41K | +0.0% of holding | +14.8% | −1.7% | 11,926,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.68 | $42K | +0.0% of holding | +17.8% | −4.8% | 11,923,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 3,339 @ $17.43 | $58K | +0.0% of holding | −6.5% | −15.8% | 11,921,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 100 | — | +0.0% of holding | −1.8% | −23.4% | 11,918,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 100 | — | +0.0% of holding | −1.8% | −23.4% | 11,918,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 890 @ $15.81 | $14K | +0.0% of holding | +6.2% | −18.6% | 11,918,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $15.82 | $40K | +0.0% of holding | +10.5% | −13.0% | 11,917,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 2,452 @ $15.80 | $39K | +0.0% of holding | +10.9% | −16.8% | 11,914,616 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 228 @ $15.79 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | +9.6% | −16.5% | 11,912,164 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 640 | 35,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Randle Race A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,437 | 113,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Randle Race A. | officer | Award / grant | 32,000 | 116,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 50,800 | 97,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 640 | 36,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Randle Race A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,990 | 84,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ota Ken | director | Award / grant | 5,804 | 13,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,499 | 29,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Award / grant | 5,804 | 22,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Takitani Anthony P. | director | Award / grant | 5,188 | 62,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ngo Agnes Catherine | director | Award / grant | 5,656 | 16,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 5,060 | 72,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Randle Race A. | officer | Award / grant | 24,610 | 81,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Randle Race A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,008 | 63,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Randle Race A. | officer | Award / grant | 24,612 | 87,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | SABIN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 5,956 | 21,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 12,056 | 46,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Award / grant | 7,344 | 36,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Award / grant | 7,344 | 32,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 695 | 25,582 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 1,964 | 34,744 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 32,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 29,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 27,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Ngo Agnes Catherine | director | Award / grant | 3,497 | 10,901 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-07 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 618 | 26,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-08 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 618 | 26,895 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 2,197 | 67,427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | CASE STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 2,197 | 67,427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-14 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 618 | 27,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Randle Race A. | officer | Award / grant | 23,304 | 51,597 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Award / grant | 6,951 | 24,332 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Aeppel Glyn | director | Award / grant | 1,932 | 17,159 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 516 | 17,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,161 | 21,171 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Takitani Anthony P. | director | Award / grant | 2,444 | 57,708 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | SABIN JOHN | director | Award / grant | 2,060 | 15,287 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | SELLERS R SCOT | director | Award / grant | 772 | 17,264 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | KODAMA WADE K | officer | Award / grant | 6,960 | 28,131 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Ngo Agnes Catherine | director | Award / grant | 1,804 | 7,404 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.