MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.Basic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $496.76 · now $496.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MLM has typically landed between $441.85 and $557.51 — a range of −11.1% to +12.2% from the issuance price $496.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($496.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MLM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $496.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$441.85worst · -11.1%$557.51best · +12.2%
  • now $496.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $503.09 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $477.91–$528.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $441.85–$557.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−43.2%−43.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−42.5%−42.5%+0.8%
2020-02-18−41.6%−41.6%+0.6%
3 best
2008-11-20+55.6%+0.0%+74.5%
2008-11-21+51.7%+0.0%+66.4%
2016-10-12+37.5%+0.0%+37.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$33.6B
market cap
$41.96
EPS (TTM)
13.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$6.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$978M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.53
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $496.76$419.73$1,045
  • DCF (intrinsic)$462.82
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$1,001
  • Analyst target · range $556.00–$785.00$690.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$496.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.2%
n=19
May
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+1.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.6%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$706$4972025-08: 1 open-market sale, $637K↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-08PEREZ LAREE EdirectorSale1,038 @ $613.32$637K−6.3% of holding−1.4%+4.7%15,417Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-05McCunniff Donald A.officerSale1,332 @ $475.00$633K−27.4% of holding+9.2%+18.0%3,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Petro Michael JofficerPurchase550 @ $454.37$250K+6.5% of holding+8.5%+20.4%8,985Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Petro Michael JofficerAward / grant9,33124,322Form 4
2026-08-31WAJSGRAS DAVID CdirectorAward / grant785,106Form 4
2026-08-31LYONS MARTIN JdirectorAward / grant68442Form 4
2026-08-31Pike ThomasdirectorAward / grant665,029Form 4
2026-08-21Niemann PhilippdirectorAward / grant337337Form 4
2026-08-03Petro Michael JofficerWithheld for tax36814,991Form 4
2026-05-29WAJSGRAS DAVID CdirectorAward / grant695,028Form 4
2026-05-29LYONS MARTIN JdirectorAward / grant61374Form 4
2026-05-29Pike ThomasdirectorAward / grant594,963Form 4
2026-05-14Ables Dorothy MdirectorAward / grant3134,221Form 4
2026-05-14DELLY GAYLA JdirectorAward / grant313313Form 4
2026-05-14LYONS MARTIN JdirectorAward / grant313313Form 4
2026-05-14PEREZ LAREE EdirectorAward / grant31315,730Form 4
2026-05-14SLAGER DONALD WdirectorAward / grant3135,064Form 4
2026-05-14WAJSGRAS DAVID CdirectorAward / grant3134,959Form 4
2026-05-14Mack Mary TdirectorAward / grant313914Form 4
2026-05-14Pike ThomasdirectorAward / grant3134,904Form 4
2026-05-14Foxx Anthony RdirectorAward / grant3132,615Form 4
2026-05-01Samborski Christopher WilliamofficerAward / grant8,10121,762Form 4
2026-03-01Schoen George FrederickofficerAward / grant23,67323,673Form 4
2026-03-01Petro Michael JofficerAward / grant2,96015,359Form 4
2026-03-01Nye C HowarddirectorAward / grant5,919176,038Form 4
2026-03-01McCunniff Donald A.officerAward / grant2,9607,518Form 4
2026-02-27KORALESKI JOHN JdirectorAward / grant698,822Form 4
2026-02-27WAJSGRAS DAVID CdirectorAward / grant564,646Form 4
2026-02-27Pike ThomasdirectorAward / grant474,591Form 4
2026-02-24Nye C HowarddirectorWithheld for tax1,221170,119Form 4
2026-02-24Cardin Robert JofficerWithheld for tax10312,459Form 4
2026-02-24Petro Michael JofficerWithheld for tax9412,399Form 4
2026-02-24Flynn Jason PaulofficerWithheld for tax305,494Form 4
2026-02-23Nye C HowarddirectorWithheld for tax1,805171,340Form 4
2026-02-23Petro Michael JofficerWithheld for tax21112,493Form 4
2026-02-23Cardin Robert JofficerWithheld for tax20912,562Form 4
2026-02-23McCunniff Donald A.officerWithheld for tax1924,558Form 4
2026-02-23Flynn Jason PaulofficerWithheld for tax1775,524Form 4
2026-02-20Nye C HowarddirectorAward / grant2,216166,740Form 4
2026-02-20Flynn Jason PaulofficerAward / grant5925,106Form 4
2026-02-20Cardin Robert JofficerAward / grant65812,771Form 4
2026-02-20Flynn Jason PaulofficerAward / grant5955,701Form 4
2026-02-20McCunniff Donald A.officerAward / grant1,2774,750Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-06-052026-05-28$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-09$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.