Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.97 · now $20.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MLKN has typically landed between $17.06 and $25.26 — a range of −18.6% to +20.5% from the issuance price $20.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MLKN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.78 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.8–$22.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.06–$25.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −62.1% | −62.1% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-14 | −58.5% | −58.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −56.0% | −62.0% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +54.0% | +0.0% | +54.0% |
| 2023-09-11 | +51.1% | +0.0% | +51.1% |
| 2023-09-12 | +49.9% | +0.0% | +49.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
300 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,562 | 66,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stutz Jeffrey M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,233 | 98,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,214 | 66,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,949 | 93,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jacqueline Hourigan Rice | director | Withheld for tax | 3,357 | 65,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,482 | 69,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stutz Jeffrey M | director | Withheld for tax | 2,335 | 101,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,326 | 69,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,128 | 73,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stutz Jeffrey M | director | Withheld for tax | 2,002 | 105,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,995 | 73,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,762 | 95,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,511 | 98,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jacqueline Hourigan Rice | director | Withheld for tax | 1,498 | 67,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jacqueline Hourigan Rice | director | Withheld for tax | 1,284 | 69,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Withheld for tax | 995 | 70,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Stutz Jeffrey M | director | Withheld for tax | 937 | 102,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Withheld for tax | 933 | 70,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Withheld for tax | 707 | 96,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Jacqueline Hourigan Rice | director | Withheld for tax | 601 | 67,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 569 | 21,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 254 | 21,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 218 | 21,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 102 | 21,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Award / grant | 2,148 | 71,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Award / grant | 5,355 | 72,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Option exercise | 1,172 | 49,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Award / grant | 2,148 | 71,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 499 | 22,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Award / grant | 4,592 | 75,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 233 | 21,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Option exercise | 10,783 | 66,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Option exercise | 10,783 | 71,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 582 | 21,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Award / grant | 5,355 | 72,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Veltman Kevin J. | officer | Option exercise | 1,172 | 21,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Propst Debbie F | officer | Option exercise | 10,783 | 72,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Option exercise | 8,138 | 56,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Michael John P | officer | Award / grant | 4,592 | 75,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Watson Bruce Benedict | officer | Award / grant | 3,466 | 99,986 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.