MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $163.35 · now $163.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MKTX has typically landed between $139.41 and $187.50 — a range of −14.7% to +14.8% from the issuance price $163.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($163.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MKTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $163.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$139.41worst · -14.7%$187.5best · +14.8%
  • now $163.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $159.06 (-2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $147.8–$170.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $139.41–$187.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-19−50.4%−51.0%+0.0%
2008-09-22−45.6%−49.7%+1.7%
2008-09-10−44.7%−44.7%+1.6%
3 best
2008-11-20+66.7%+0.0%+69.4%
2008-12-01+60.2%+0.0%+60.2%
2008-11-19+55.6%−5.5%+60.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
+0.0%
n=18
Feb
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.2%
n=19
May
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.7%
n=19
Jul
84%
+5.8%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
72%
+6.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$193$1092026-09-10: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Cruger William Frank Jr., Pintoff Scott2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $16K — Pintoff Scott2026-07-10: 1 insider sale, $12K — Pintoff Scott2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $12K — Pintoff Scott2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $15K — Pintoff Scott2026-04-10: 1 insider sale, $17K — Pintoff Scott2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $18K — Pintoff Scott2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $17K — Pintoff Scott2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $17K — Pintoff Scott2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $18K — Pintoff Scott2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $277K — McPherson Kevin M2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $299K — Casper Stephen P2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $575K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $18K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $17K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $17K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $18K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $17K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $15K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $12K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $12K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $16K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cruger William Frank Jr. — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed same dayofficer Pintoff Scott — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer McPherson Kevin M — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Casper Stephen P — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Cruger William Frank Jr.directorSale6,164 @ $163.20$1.0M−60.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open4,033Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $163.32$16K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open11,486Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $162.60$16K−0.9% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open11,586Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $115.12$12K−0.8% of holding+41.3%not yet — horizon still open11,686Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $116.03$12K−0.8% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open11,786Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $146.99$15K−0.8% of holding−17.7%not yet — horizon still open11,886Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $171.96$17K−0.8% of holding−24.4%not yet — horizon still open11,986Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $184.93$18K−0.8% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open12,086Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $171.91$17K−1.0% of holding+6.6%−19.1%9,538Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-12Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $168.63$17K−1.0% of holding+5.6%−40.5%9,638Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Pintoff ScottofficerSale100 @ $177.85$18K−1.0% of holding−5.0%−40.3%9,738Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12McPherson Kevin MofficerSale1,494 @ $185.32$277K−2.2% of holding−7.6%−3.9%67,681Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-08Casper Stephen PdirectorSale1,600 @ $186.59$299K−3.6% of holding−13.6%−6.8%43,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11McPherson Kevin MofficerSale2,000 @ $224.77$450K−2.8% of holding−7.7%−36.5%69,175Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14Roupie Christophe Pierre DanielofficerSale1,189 @ $210.44$250K−12.7% of holding+5.6%−35.9%8,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Pintoff ScottofficerSale300 @ $240.57$72K−3.5% of holding−6.9%−5.6%8,302Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Portney Emily HopedirectorGift2,0851,571Form 4
2026-08-12Portney Emily HopedirectorGift2,0854,259Form 4
2026-08-07Chwick JanedirectorGift6069,223Form 4
2026-06-18HERNANDEZ CARLOS MAURICIOdirectorGift10,70823,814Form 4
2026-06-18HERNANDEZ CARLOS MAURICIOdirectorGift10,7081,772Form 4
2026-06-10Portney Emily HopedirectorAward / grant1,3902,174Form 4
2026-06-10HERNANDEZ CARLOS MAURICIOdirectorAward / grant2,61613,106Form 4
2026-06-10Altobello Nancy A.directorAward / grant1,3905,152Form 4
2026-06-10Begleiter Steven LdirectorAward / grant1,39012,074Form 4
2026-06-10Chwick JanedirectorAward / grant1,3909,829Form 4
2026-06-10Cifu Douglas AdirectorAward / grant1,3901,649Form 4
2026-06-10Cruger William Frank Jr.directorAward / grant1,39010,197Form 4
2026-06-10Gibson KourtneydirectorAward / grant1,3904,542Form 4
2026-06-10Hoornweg RobertodirectorAward / grant1,3902,389Form 4
2026-06-10KETCHUM RICHARD GdirectorAward / grant1,3906,093Form 4
2026-06-10SCHICIANO KENNETH TdirectorAward / grant1,3901,945Form 4
2026-06-03Fiszel Bieler IleneofficerWithheld for tax3328,656Form 4
2026-05-01Quan WilliamofficerAward / grant218218Form 4
2026-04-03CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorWithheld for tax34953,600Form 4
2026-03-01Panchal Naineshkumar ShantilalofficerWithheld for tax1,47011,331Form 4
2026-03-01SCHICIANO KENNETH TdirectorAward / grant259555Form 4
2026-03-01Cifu Douglas AdirectorAward / grant259259Form 4
2026-02-15CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorWithheld for tax1,75053,949Form 4
2026-02-15McPherson Kevin MofficerWithheld for tax1,52571,049Form 4
2026-02-15Panchal Naineshkumar ShantilalofficerWithheld for tax1,01612,801Form 4
2026-02-15CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorWithheld for tax86649,111Form 4
2026-02-15Pintoff ScottofficerWithheld for tax82412,186Form 4
2026-02-15McPherson Kevin MofficerWithheld for tax46268,158Form 4
2026-02-15Fiszel Bieler IleneofficerWithheld for tax4398,988Form 4
2026-02-15Pintoff ScottofficerWithheld for tax2089,845Form 4
2026-02-15Panchal Naineshkumar ShantilalofficerWithheld for tax15910,578Form 4
2026-02-15CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorAward / grant21,73621,736Form 4
2026-02-15Mirwani Nitin AofficerAward / grant1,7661,766Form 4
2026-02-15Panchal Naineshkumar ShantilalofficerAward / grant3,23913,817Form 4
2026-02-15McPherson Kevin MofficerAward / grant4,41672,574Form 4
2026-02-15CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorAward / grant6,58855,699Form 4
2026-02-15Pintoff ScottofficerAward / grant3,16513,010Form 4
2026-02-15Fiszel Bieler IleneofficerAward / grant5,0059,427Form 4
2026-02-13McPherson Kevin MofficerAward / grant93968,620Form 4
2026-02-13CONCANNON CHRISTOPHER RdirectorAward / grant1,69649,977Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousepurchase2025-02-122025-01-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-05-062024-04-26$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2022-11-102022-10-05$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2021-12-132021-11-12$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2021-06-142021-05-18$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2021-04-212021-03-31$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2021-04-212021-03-17$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-02-102021-01-28$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2020-12-092020-11-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.