Issued 2026-09-16 at $235.28 · now $235.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MKSI has typically landed between $188.10 and $293.73 — a range of −20.1% to +24.8% from the issuance price $235.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($235.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MKSI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $235.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $235.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $237.8 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $213.21–$262.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $188.1–$293.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −38.4% | −39.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +6.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-06-23 | +55.4% | +0.0% | +55.4% |
| 2025-12-29 | +49.8% | −1.8% | +49.8% |
| 2009-06-30 | +49.5% | +0.0% | +51.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+6.4%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+2.6%
n=20
Apr
40%
−0.2%
n=20
May
75%
+3.3%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Aug
25%
−3.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Nov
65%
+2.9%
n=20
Dec
85%
+4.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $250.96 | $75K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $302.01 | $3.0M | −6.9% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,776 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Williams John Edward | officer | Sale | 457 @ $288.31 | $132K | −10.0% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 2,471 @ $345.52 | $854K | −10.9% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,230 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 812 @ $346.41 | $281K | −4.0% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 217 @ $347.00 | $75K | −1.1% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 781 @ $317.42 | $248K | −3.3% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Sale | 2,434 @ $315.23 | $767K | −99.9% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Henry David Philip | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $314.43 | $1.9M | −36.5% of holding | +30.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $318.02 | $95K | −1.5% of holding | +30.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 8,210 @ $331.45 | $2.7M | −20.8% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 4,876 @ $332.04 | $1.6M | −15.6% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,467 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $338.58 | $948K | −12.3% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,017 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Donahue Joseph B | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $327.95 | $689K | −17.3% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 1,811 @ $335.46 | $608K | −6.8% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 1,626 @ $336.54 | $547K | −6.6% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 464 @ $330.38 | $153K | −1.2% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 213 @ $337.05 | $72K | −0.9% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Henry David Philip | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $330.50 | $826K | −13.3% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $315.48 | $3.2M | −6.5% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,696 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Mayampurath Ramakumar | officer | Sale | 8,810 @ $315.48 | $2.8M | −100.0% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | CANNONE PETER III | director | Sale | 1,350 @ $303.40 | $410K | −14.8% of holding | +25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $312.20 | $312K | −10.2% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $318.99 | $447K | −12.5% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Burke Kathleen Flaherty | officer | Sale | 4,355 @ $319.94 | $1.4M | −8.1% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Taranto Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 2,849 @ $319.93 | $911K | −18.4% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Sale | 340 @ $213.77 | $73K | −3.2% of holding | +24.7% | +9.9% | 10,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Taranto Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 4,568 @ $220.52 | $1.0M | −22.8% of holding | +15.1% | +8.9% | 15,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $239.44 | $72K | −1.6% of holding | −0.9% | −7.4% | 18,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $253.97 | $2.5M | −20.0% of holding | +1.1% | −4.4% | 40,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 4,100 @ $255.00 | $1.0M | −14.9% of holding | +1.1% | −4.4% | 23,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 13,310 @ $256.05 | $3.4M | −7.2% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 171,386 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 12,812 @ $256.93 | $3.3M | −7.5% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 158,574 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $252.90 | $2.5M | −16.7% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 50,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Burke Kathleen Flaherty | officer | Sale | 4,254 @ $250.00 | $1.1M | −7.3% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 53,794 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Williams John Edward | officer | Sale | 2,043 @ $256.41 | $524K | −35.9% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 3,640 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Henry David Philip | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $261.56 | $523K | −9.6% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 18,841 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 1,988 @ $257.81 | $513K | −1.3% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 156,586 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $259.70 | $491K | −1.2% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 154,696 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Taranto Eric Robert | officer | Sale | 1,453 @ $247.55 | $360K | −6.8% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 20,013 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | CANNONE PETER III | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $258.06 | $323K | −13.0% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 8,362 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Sale | 829 @ $247.55 | $205K | −7.2% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 10,733 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Sale | 816 @ $250.35 | $204K | −100.0% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Sale | 650 @ $249.57 | $162K | −44.3% of holding | −4.6% | −3.8% | 816 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Sale | 300 @ $158.81 | $48K | −1.6% of holding | +4.0% | +93.8% | 18,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Schreiner James Alan | officer | Sale | 711 @ $138.68 | $99K | −3.1% of holding | +5.3% | +102.0% | 22,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Sale | 300 @ $122.14 | $37K | −2.5% of holding | +4.4% | +80.5% | 11,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Henry David Philip | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $130.00 | $650K | −24.3% of holding | +4.5% | +76.5% | 15,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
252 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Donlan Renee Martel | officer | Award / grant | 954 | 4,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Donlan Renee Martel | officer | Award / grant | 954 | 4,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Donlan Renee Martel | officer | Award / grant | 954 | 4,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Donlan Renee Martel | officer | Award / grant | 954 | 4,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | JABRE WISSAM G | director | Award / grant | 782 | 5,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 782 | 19,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Award / grant | 782 | 8,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | COLELLA GERALD G | director | Award / grant | 782 | 8,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Batra Raj | director | Award / grant | 782 | 16,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | CANNONE PETER III | director | Award / grant | 782 | 9,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Donahue Joseph B | director | Award / grant | 782 | 12,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 782 | 19,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | JABRE WISSAM G | director | Award / grant | 782 | 5,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Award / grant | 782 | 11,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Moloney Jacqueline F | director | Award / grant | 782 | 11,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Donahue Joseph B | director | Award / grant | 782 | 12,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Batra Raj | director | Award / grant | 782 | 16,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | CANNONE PETER III | director | Award / grant | 782 | 9,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Williams John Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 826 | 4,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Williams John Edward | officer | Option exercise | 1,741 | 6,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Williams John Edward | officer | Option exercise | 1,741 | 5,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Williams John Edward | officer | Option exercise | 1,741 | 5,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Williams John Edward | officer | Option exercise | 1,741 | 6,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,375 | 2,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,107 | 2,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,736 | 3,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,107 | 2,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,107 | 9,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,736 | 7,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,107 | 9,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 10,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Award / grant | 1,673 | 11,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,736 | 3,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Award / grant | 1,673 | 11,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 10,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | McCarthy Michelle M | officer | Option exercise | 1,736 | 7,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Lee John Tseng-Chung | director | Withheld for tax | 32,548 | 184,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Burke Kathleen Flaherty | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,318 | 58,048 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.