MKLMarkel CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1787.65 · now $1787.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MKL has typically landed between $1622.23 and $1968.29 — a range of −9.3% to +10.1% from the issuance price $1787.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1787.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MKL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,788 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1,622worst · -9.3%$1,968best · +10.1%
  • now $1,788 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,796 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,730–$1,862
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,622–$1,968
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.6%−44.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−41.5%−41.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−40.3%−40.3%+1.1%
3 best
2009-03-11+36.6%+0.0%+36.6%
2009-03-09+33.2%+0.0%+38.9%
2008-08-20+32.2%−5.5%+32.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
70%
+2.2%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Apr
40%
−0.7%
n=20
May
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.1%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.3%
n=20
Sep
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Oct
50%
+2.0%
n=20
Nov
75%
+2.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$2K$2K2026-05-22: 3 insider sales, $140K — Harris Greta J …2026-05-07: 1 insider purchase, $89K — Leopold Diane2026-05-06: 1 insider purchase, $179K — Leopold Diane2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $102K — Puckett A. Lynne2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $208K — Wilson Simon2025-12-11: 16 insider sales, $2.8M — MARKEL STEVEN A …2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $210K — MARKEL STEVEN A2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $147K — MARKEL STEVEN A2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $155K — Wilson Simon2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $149K — Grandis Meade P.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $149K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $512K2025-12: 16 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $208K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $371K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $140K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Harris Greta J — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Harris Greta J — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Harris Greta J — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Leopold Diane — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leopold Diane — Purchase on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Puckett A. Lynne — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wilson Simon — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed same daydirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MARKEL STEVEN A — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Wilson Simon — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same dayofficer Grandis Meade P. — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-22Harris Greta JdirectorSale35 @ $1846.12$65K−4.9% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open686Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22Harris Greta JdirectorSale27 @ $1848.83$50K−4.0% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open645Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22Harris Greta JdirectorSale14 @ $1847.36$26K−2.0% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open672Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-07Leopold DianedirectorPurchase50 @ $1789.19$89K+10.0% of holding−1.3%not yet — horizon still open550Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-06Leopold DianedirectorPurchase100 @ $1792.61$179K+4.8% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open2,190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Puckett A. LynnedirectorPurchase57 @ $1795.53$102K+4.1% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open1,463Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26Wilson SimonofficerSale100 @ $2079.48$208K−4.0% of holding−1.8%−25.0%2,397Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale201 @ $2117.37$426K−0.3% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,053Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale190 @ $2127.26$404K−0.3% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,498Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale173 @ $2121.69$367K−0.3% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale120 @ $2129.98$256K−0.2% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,368Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale120 @ $2114.99$254K−0.2% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,354Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale100 @ $2116.18$212K−0.2% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,254Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale75 @ $2126.00$159K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,688Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale70 @ $2108.27$148K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,514Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale64 @ $2100.00$134K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,634Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale51 @ $2120.65$108K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,978Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale50 @ $2103.55$105K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,584Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale40 @ $2112.03$84K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,474Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale32 @ $2125.00$68K−0.1% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,763Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale24 @ $2118.37$51K−0.0% of holding−2.3%−22.9%61,029Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale10 @ $2128.00$21K−0.0% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,488Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale10 @ $2123.05$21K−0.0% of holding−2.3%−22.9%60,795Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale100 @ $2100.00$210K−0.2% of holding+3.7%−25.9%61,698Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-26MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale70 @ $2100.00$147K−0.1% of holding+3.8%−26.3%61,798Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25Wilson SimonofficerSale75 @ $2072.94$155K−4.1% of holding+2.5%−25.3%1,770Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25Grandis Meade P.officerSale75 @ $1983.78$149K−21.4% of holding−5.7%−3.5%275Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Harris Greta JdirectorSale90 @ $1861.44$168K−12.5% of holding+0.5%−5.1%632Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22Cunningham Lawrence AdirectorPurchase15 @ $1849.00$28K+1.8% of holding+2.6%−2.8%846Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Cunningham Lawrence AdirectorPurchase10 @ $1854.80$19K+1.2% of holding+2.6%−2.8%856Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Grandis Meade P.officerSale400 @ $1911.65$765K−9.3% of holding+1.2%−6.1%3,920Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Grandis Meade P.officerSale400 @ $1877.44$751K−8.5% of holding−2.4%−17.3%4,320Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale70 @ $1860.41$130K−0.1% of holding+3.5%−5.6%63,436Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale18 @ $1858.56$33K−0.0% of holding+3.5%−5.6%63,506Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale111 @ $1888.11$210K−0.2% of holding+3.0%−6.2%62,764Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale75 @ $1885.52$141K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%62,925Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale72 @ $1876.06$135K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,113Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale72 @ $1864.28$134K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,299Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale63 @ $1856.56$117K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,552Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale63 @ $1855.27$117K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,615Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale52 @ $1890.27$98K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%62,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale50 @ $1887.10$94K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%62,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale44 @ $1888.82$83K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%62,720Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale43 @ $1882.64$81K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,010Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale40 @ $1877.18$75K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,073Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale40 @ $1861.38$74K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale37 @ $1874.12$69K−0.1% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,185Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale30 @ $1873.06$56K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,222Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale28 @ $1857.92$52K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,524Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale25 @ $1862.62$47K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,371Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale24 @ $1852.28$44K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,698Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale22 @ $1868.37$41K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,267Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale20 @ $1878.07$38K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,053Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale20 @ $1853.78$37K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,678Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale10 @ $1883.67$19K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale10 @ $1869.99$19K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale10 @ $1864.92$19K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,289Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale5 @ $1871.15$9K−0.0% of holding+3.0%−6.2%63,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale224 @ $1860.72$417K−0.3% of holding+4.2%−1.3%63,998Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24MARKEL STEVEN AdirectorSale177 @ $1858.33$329K−0.3% of holding+4.2%−1.3%64,360Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Crowley Andrew G.officerOther acquisition72,749Form 4
2026-06-30Crowley Andrew G.officerOther acquisition32,741Form 4
2026-06-30Costanzo Brian J.officerOther acquisition21,632Form 4
2026-06-15OREILLY MICHAELdirectorOther acquisition903,935Form 4
2026-06-15Besca MarkdirectorOther acquisition811,222Form 4
2026-06-15MICHAEL JONATHAN EdirectorOther acquisition66333Form 4
2026-06-15Housel Morgan E.directorOther acquisition661,029Form 4
2026-06-15Leopold DianedirectorOther acquisition662,345Form 4
2026-06-15Puckett A. LynnedirectorOther acquisition66507Form 4
2026-06-15Morrison Harold Lawrence Jr.directorOther acquisition331,127Form 4
2026-06-15Cunningham Lawrence AdirectorOther acquisition331,042Form 4
2026-05-20Besca MarkdirectorAward / grant891,141Form 4
2026-05-20Puckett A. LynnedirectorAward / grant89441Form 4
2026-05-20Leopold DianedirectorAward / grant892,279Form 4
2026-05-20Cunningham Lawrence AdirectorAward / grant891,009Form 4
2026-05-20Harris Greta JdirectorAward / grant89721Form 4
2026-05-20Housel Morgan E.directorAward / grant89963Form 4
2026-05-20MICHAEL JONATHAN EdirectorAward / grant89267Form 4
2026-05-20OREILLY MICHAELdirectorAward / grant893,845Form 4
2026-05-20Morrison Harold Lawrence Jr.directorAward / grant891,094Form 4
2026-05-15GAYNER THOMAS SINNICKSONdirectorWithheld for tax48256,260Form 4
2026-05-15Grinnan Richard RandolphofficerWithheld for tax1164,147Form 4
2026-05-15Crowley Andrew G.officerWithheld for tax752,678Form 4
2026-05-15Crowley Andrew G.officerOther acquisition602,738Form 4
2026-05-15Costanzo Brian J.officerOther acquisition301,630Form 4
2026-05-15Costanzo Brian J.officerWithheld for tax131,600Form 4
2026-03-31Crowley Andrew G.officerOther acquisition92,753Form 4
2026-03-31Costanzo Brian J.officerOther acquisition21,613Form 4
2026-02-24Grinnan Richard RandolphofficerAward / grant8014,263Form 4
2026-02-24Grandis Meade P.officerAward / grant70294Form 4
2026-02-24Crowley Andrew G.officerAward / grant8302,744Form 4
2026-02-24GAYNER THOMAS SINNICKSONdirectorAward / grant4,48456,741Form 4
2026-02-24Costanzo Brian J.officerAward / grant6551,611Form 4
2026-02-24Wilson SimonofficerAward / grant8682,497Form 4
2026-02-17Wilson SimonofficerWithheld for tax471,629Form 4
2025-12-31Costanzo Brian J.officerOther acquisition2957Form 4
2025-12-02Heaton Michael RdirectorWithheld for tax2174,709Form 4
2025-12-02Grinnan Richard RandolphofficerWithheld for tax1383,463Form 4
2025-12-02Wilson SimonofficerWithheld for tax941,676Form 4
2025-12-02Crowley Andrew G.officerWithheld for tax651,914Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.