MKCMcCormick & Company, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $50.06 · now $50.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MKC has typically landed between $44.50 and $55.34 — a range of −11.1% to +10.6% from the issuance price $50.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($50.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MKC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $50.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.5worst · -11.1%$55.34best · +10.6%
  • now $50.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.99 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.58–$52.41
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.5–$55.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−29.8%−29.8%+0.0%
2026-03-03−28.5%−28.5%+0.0%
2020-02-13−28.0%−28.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+35.3%+0.0%+38.4%
2020-03-16+27.3%−5.4%+28.7%
2020-03-19+24.8%−9.4%+25.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.4B
market cap
$6.01
EPS (TTM)
8.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-06
next earnings
Revenue$6.8B
'20'25
Net income$789M
'20'25
Free cash flow$740M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.70
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $50.06$42.31$154.65
  • DCF (intrinsic)$66.60
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$146.91
  • Analyst target · range $52.00–$68.00$57.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$50.06

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−2.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.3%
n=19
May
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Nov
78%
+2.0%
n=18
Dec
78%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$70$452026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $10.8M — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2026-07-23: 1 insider purchase, $55K — Conway Michael Aaron2026-04-10: 1 insider purchase, $106K — Hattersley Gavin2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $3.6M — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $340K — MANGAN MICHAEL D2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $335K — Tapiero Jacques2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $319K — Tapiero Jacques2026-01-13: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $3.7M — Foley Brendan M2025-11-11: 3 insider sales, $1.7M — Kurzius Lawrence Erik …2025-10-08: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — Kurzius Lawrence Erik2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $3.3M2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $5.5M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $3.4M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $4.6M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $106K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $55K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $10.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Conway Michael Aaron — Purchase on 2026-07-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hattersley Gavin — Purchase on 2026-04-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MANGAN MICHAEL D — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tapiero Jacques — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Tapiero Jacques — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2026-01-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Foley Brendan M — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kurzius Lawrence Erik — Sale on 2025-10-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale205,538 @ $52.69$10.8M−40.9% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open296,992Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-23Conway Michael AarondirectorPurchase1,100 @ $50.21$55Kownership Δ n/a+6.7%not yet — horizon still open1,100Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-10Hattersley GavindirectorPurchase2,000 @ $52.98$106K+220.8% of holding−20.4%not yet — horizon still open2,906Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-12Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale50,000 @ $71.63$3.6M−14.4% of holding−17.7%−36.9%296,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09MANGAN MICHAEL DdirectorSale5,000 @ $67.92$340K−10.4% of holding−9.1%−32.2%43,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05Tapiero JacquesdirectorSale5,000 @ $67.09$335K−13.7% of holding−4.3%−34.2%31,596Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-03Tapiero JacquesdirectorSale5,000 @ $63.85$319K−13.7% of holding+4.3%−27.7%31,596Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-13Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale50,000 @ $67.43$3.4M−16.8% of holding+8.1%−28.9%246,762Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Foley Brendan MdirectorSale57,144 @ $65.56$3.7M−34.5% of holding+1.6%−37.3%108,652Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale14,060 @ $64.54$907K−100.0% of holding−0.6%−38.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale6,574 @ $64.54$424K−100.0% of holding−0.6%−38.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale5,903 @ $64.54$381K−100.0% of holding−0.6%−38.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-08Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorSale50,000 @ $65.86$3.3M−16.8% of holding−1.6%−18.8%246,762Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Piper SarahofficerAward / grant494,986Form 4
2026-09-08Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4814,538Form 4
2026-09-02Tapiero JacquesdirectorAward / grant1862,815Form 4
2026-08-24Piper SarahofficerAward / grant454,937Form 4
2026-08-24Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4514,489Form 4
2026-08-10Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorOption exercise205,538502,530Form 4
2026-08-10Piper SarahofficerAward / grant484,849Form 4
2026-08-10Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4714,315Form 4
2026-08-10Kurzius Lawrence ErikdirectorOption exercise205,5380Form 4
2026-07-30Piper SarahofficerAward / grant504,801Form 4
2026-07-30Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4914,267Form 4
2026-07-22Foley Brendan MdirectorOther acquisition51,770Form 4
2026-07-20PRESTON MARGARET M VdirectorOther acquisition26929,589Form 4
2026-07-20Foley Brendan MdirectorOther acquisition13014,445Form 4
2026-07-20Foust AndrewofficerOther acquisition5113,386Form 4
2026-07-20Piper SarahofficerOther acquisition434,892Form 4
2026-07-20Tapiero JacquesdirectorOther acquisition242,630Form 4
2026-07-20Piper SarahofficerOther acquisition219,058Form 4
2026-07-20Foley Brendan MdirectorOther acquisition111,765Form 4
2026-07-20Foust AndrewofficerOther acquisition3341Form 4
2026-07-13Piper SarahofficerAward / grant474,751Form 4
2026-07-13Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4714,218Form 4
2026-06-29Piper SarahofficerAward / grant494,704Form 4
2026-06-29Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant4814,172Form 4
2026-06-16Piper SarahofficerAward / grant544,655Form 4
2026-06-16Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant5314,123Form 4
2026-06-08Tapiero JacquesdirectorAward / grant2102,606Form 4
2026-06-02Piper SarahofficerAward / grant544,602Form 4
2026-06-02Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant5414,070Form 4
2026-06-01Hoots Cindy LdirectorAward / grant527527Form 4
2026-05-18Piper SarahofficerAward / grant544,547Form 4
2026-05-18Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant5414,017Form 4
2026-05-04Piper SarahofficerAward / grant534,493Form 4
2026-05-04Foley Brendan MdirectorAward / grant5213,963Form 4
2026-04-28Foley Brendan MdirectorOther acquisition288130,344Form 4
2026-04-28Foust AndrewofficerOther acquisition5213,335Form 4
2026-04-28BRAMMAN ANNE LdirectorOther acquisition248,951Form 4
2026-04-28Piper SarahofficerOther acquisition219,038Form 4
2026-04-28Foley Brendan MdirectorOther acquisition51,388Form 4
2026-04-28THOMAS TERRY SdirectorOther acquisition43,970Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-03-122026-02-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132024-10-23$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousesale2025-08-202025-07-11$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202025-01-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-04-282025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.