MITT · TickerCove

MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust IncReal Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.33 · now $6.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MITT has typically landed between $5.25 and $7.36 — a range of −17.1% to +16.2% from the issuance price $6.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,802 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.33 · 0% of range

$6.32 low$8.65 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.0%

typical move · IQR 14.1%

−17.1%worst (p90)+16.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MITT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.33 (+0.0%)
typical $6.33 (+0.0%)
middle 50% $5.88–$6.78
90% range $5.25–$7.36

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,802 windows spanning 2011-06-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-04	−89.7%	−89.7%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−88.4%	−88.4%	+1.0%
2020-03-05	−87.8%	−89.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-08	+188.9%	−9.7%	+188.9%
2020-05-12	+164.0%	+0.0%	+220.0%
2020-05-13	+140.6%	+0.0%	+197.1%

3,802 overlapping windows · 2011-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+4.1%

n=15

Feb

53%

+1.4%

n=15

Mar

53%

−4.6%

n=15

Apr

67%

−0.3%

n=15

May

53%

+0.9%

n=15

Jun

73%

+3.9%

n=15

Jul

63%

+1.2%

n=16

Aug

31%

−2.2%

n=16

Sep

44%

−2.5%

n=16

Oct

27%

−0.1%

n=15

Nov

60%

+4.2%

n=15

Dec

53%

+1.0%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-21	Jozoff Matthew	director	Purchase	34,000 @ $7.31	$249K	+75.0% of holding	+1.0%	+7.8%	79,355	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Jozoff Matthew	director	Sale	34,000 @ $7.30	$248K	−42.8% of holding	+1.0%	+7.8%	45,355	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20	Jozoff Matthew	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $7.35	$29K	+5.3% of holding	+1.5%	+9.3%	79,355	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-20	Jozoff Matthew	director	Sale	4,000 @ $7.33	$29K	−5.0% of holding	+1.5%	+9.3%	75,355	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	0	17,386	Form 4
2026-04-30	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	0	16,817	Form 4
2026-04-29	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	12,979	100,186	Form 4
2026-04-29	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	12,979	72,987	Form 4
2026-04-29	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	16,931	107,204	Form 4
2026-04-29	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	12,979	69,429	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	2,777	60,008	Form 4
2026-04-01	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	3,819	90,273	Form 4
2026-04-01	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	2,777	56,450	Form 4
2026-04-01	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,777	87,207	Form 4
2026-01-30	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	0	16,308	Form 4
2026-01-13	Neslin Jenny B	officer	Withheld for tax	7,640	92,360	Form 4
2026-01-13	Rossiello Anthony William	officer	Withheld for tax	6,933	106,401	Form 4
2026-01-02	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	3,201	86,454	Form 4
2026-01-02	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	2,328	53,673	Form 4
2026-01-02	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	2,328	57,231	Form 4
2026-01-02	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,328	84,430	Form 4
2025-10-31	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	459	15,900	Form 4
2025-10-01	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	3,777	83,253	Form 4
2025-10-01	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	2,747	51,345	Form 4
2025-10-01	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	2,747	54,903	Form 4
2025-10-01	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,747	82,102	Form 4
2025-07-31	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	411	15,441	Form 4
2025-07-01	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	2,628	52,156	Form 4
2025-07-01	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	2,628	48,598	Form 4
2025-07-01	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,628	79,355	Form 4
2025-07-01	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	3,613	79,476	Form 4
2025-05-05	Quateman Lisa G	director	Option exercise	15,030	0	Form 4
2025-05-05	Quateman Lisa G	director	Option exercise	15,030	0	Form 4
2025-05-05	Quateman Lisa G	director	Option exercise	15,030	55,096	Form 4
2025-05-05	Quateman Lisa G	director	Option exercise	15,030	55,096	Form 4
2025-04-30	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Other acquisition	445	15,030	Form 4
2025-04-30	Quateman Lisa G	director	Other acquisition	445	15,030	Form 4
2025-04-01	HESS DEBRA ANN	director	Award / grant	3,777	75,863	Form 4
2025-04-01	Quateman Lisa G	director	Award / grant	2,747	40,066	Form 4
2025-04-01	Hurley Dianne	director	Award / grant	2,747	49,528	Form 4
2025-04-01	Jozoff Matthew	director	Award / grant	2,747	76,727	Form 4
2025-04-01	LINNEMAN PETER	director	Award / grant	2,747	69,013	Form 4
2025-04-01	MITCHELL M CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	2,747	45,970	Form 4
2025-01-31	Quateman Lisa G	director	Other acquisition	399	14,585	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i