MITKMitek Systems, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.70 · now $17.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MITK has typically landed between $15.07 and $21.28 — a range of −14.8% to +20.2% from the issuance price $17.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,994 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MITK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.07worst · -14.8%$21.28best · +20.2%
  • now $17.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.55 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.3–$18.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.07–$21.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,994 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2012-04-03−69.7%−69.7%+0.0%
2008-11-04−68.0%−72.0%+0.0%
2008-06-23−66.7%−66.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-13+300.0%+0.0%+316.7%
2008-07-23+212.5%+0.0%+212.5%
2009-04-06+200.0%+0.0%+200.0%

4,994 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−2.5%
n=20
Feb
35%
+6.5%
n=20
Mar
35%
−3.5%
n=20
Apr
65%
+8.5%
n=20
May
55%
+11.6%
n=20
Jun
70%
+4.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+4.4%
n=20
Aug
65%
+5.4%
n=20
Sep
25%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+2.5%
n=20
Nov
40%
−3.5%
n=20
Dec
55%
+10.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$92026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $300K — Gafke Garrett2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Gafke Garrett2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Gray Jason2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $2.1M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $300K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Gafke Garrett — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed same dayofficer Gafke Garrett — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed same dayofficer Gray Jason — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15Gafke GarrettofficerSale21,108 @ $14.19$300K−8.0% of holding+18.2%not yet — horizon still open244,279Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-28Gafke GarrettofficerSale152,529 @ $13.92$2.1M−36.5% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open265,387Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03Gray JasonofficerSale73,174 @ $14.74$1.1M−26.0% of holding−4.0%+7.6%208,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13Diamond Michael EotherSale70,352 @ $9.77$687K−23.2% of holding−8.2%−11.4%233,340Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07ROSSI MARKdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $8.91$22K+7.4% of holding−9.1%−3.7%36,244Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-06Carter Scott RdirectorPurchase12,000 @ $9.08$109K+6.7% of holding−5.9%−5.2%192,136Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06ROSSI MARKdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $9.14$23K+8.7% of holding−5.9%−5.2%31,244Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06ROSSI MARKdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $8.97$22K+8.0% of holding−5.9%−5.2%33,744Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20WEST EDWARD HdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $9.21$506Kownership Δ n/a+6.7%+8.5%55,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20Stevenson Kimberly SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $9.18$92K+17.9% of holding+6.7%+8.5%65,852Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13Diamond Michael EotherSale36,398 @ $10.14$369K−16.4% of holding−3.0%−7.1%185,421Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-11Gray JasonofficerSale6,222 @ $9.07$56K−3.6% of holding+16.0%+7.5%164,342Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-03Diamond Michael EotherSale2,683 @ $9.09$24K−1.6% of holding+19.1%+11.3%168,493Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2024-12-03Diamond Michael EotherSale1,861 @ $9.09$17K−1.1% of holding+19.1%+11.3%166,632Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2024-12-03Briggs Christopher HotherSale1,791 @ $9.09$16K−2.6% of holding+19.1%+11.3%66,882Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2024-12-03Briggs Christopher HotherSale1,529 @ $9.06$14K−2.3% of holding+19.1%+11.3%65,353Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2024-11-29Diamond Michael EotherSale1,104 @ $9.30$10K−0.6% of holding+21.8%+5.3%171,176Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade
2024-11-27Diamond Michael EotherSale1,509 @ $9.27$14K−0.9% of holding+22.8%+1.5%172,280Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Seyler Aaron GraemeofficerAward / grant67,45967,459Form 4
2026-08-14WEST EDWARD HdirectorWithheld for tax45,421490,104Form 4
2026-08-14WEST EDWARD HdirectorOption exercise115,917535,525Form 4
2026-08-14WEST EDWARD HdirectorOption exercise115,917982,535Form 4
2026-04-25Gafke GarrettofficerOption exercise240,384417,916Form 4
2026-04-25Gafke GarrettofficerAward / grant120,192652,787Form 4
2026-04-25Gafke GarrettofficerOption exercise240,384412,403Form 4
2026-03-03Gray JasonofficerOption exercise30,313281,970Form 4
2026-03-03Gray JasonofficerOption exercise32,861251,657Form 4
2026-03-03Gupta RahuldirectorAward / grant11,44877,346Form 4
2026-03-03Fay James DanieldirectorAward / grant11,44838,152Form 4
2026-03-03ROSSI MARKdirectorAward / grant11,44847,692Form 4
2026-03-03Gray JasonofficerOption exercise32,8610Form 4
2026-03-03Gray JasonofficerOption exercise30,3130Form 4
2026-03-03Repo SusandirectorAward / grant11,44880,819Form 4
2026-03-03Carter Scott RdirectorAward / grant11,448191,584Form 4
2026-03-03Wells DonnadirectorAward / grant11,44889,732Form 4
2026-03-03Stevenson Kimberly SdirectorAward / grant11,44896,044Form 4
2026-02-05BELL ERIC CHRISTOPHERofficerAward / grant10,18463,699Form 4
2026-02-05BELL ERIC CHRISTOPHERofficerAward / grant10,18434,744Form 4
2026-01-02Lyle DavidofficerWithheld for tax14,878192,614Form 4
2026-01-02Lyle DavidofficerOption exercise12,958177,386Form 4
2026-01-02Lyle DavidofficerOption exercise12,958207,492Form 4
2025-12-10Gray JasonofficerOption exercise20,016238,648Form 4
2025-12-10Gray JasonofficerWithheld for tax19,852218,796Form 4
2025-12-10Gray JasonofficerOption exercise20,016151,932Form 4
2025-12-08Lyle DavidofficerOption exercise20,479213,697Form 4
2025-12-08Lyle DavidofficerWithheld for tax19,163194,534Form 4
2025-12-08Gray JasonofficerOption exercise14,506232,371Form 4
2025-12-08Gray JasonofficerWithheld for tax13,739218,632Form 4
2025-12-08Gray JasonofficerOption exercise15,636171,948Form 4
2025-12-08Lyle DavidofficerOption exercise22,075190,344Form 4
2025-11-19WEST EDWARD HdirectorAward / grant344,0371,098,452Form 4
2025-11-19Gafke GarrettofficerAward / grant172,019532,595Form 4
2025-11-19WEST EDWARD HdirectorAward / grant114,679419,608Form 4
2025-11-19Lyle DavidofficerAward / grant68,808193,218Form 4
2025-11-19Lyle DavidofficerAward / grant68,808212,419Form 4
2025-11-19Gafke GarrettofficerAward / grant57,340177,532Form 4
2025-11-19Gray JasonofficerAward / grant48,739217,865Form 4
2025-11-19Gray JasonofficerAward / grant48,739187,584Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.