Issued 2026-09-18 at $1.05 · now $0.79 (2026-09-25, −24.9% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-18 close, MIST has typically landed between $0.74 and $1.41 — a range of −29.4% to +33.9% from the issuance price $1.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,827 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-08-19 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,413 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-18 issuance close ($1.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-19, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MIST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-18 close of $1.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $0.7884 (-24.9%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.04 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.9155–$1.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.7412–$1.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-06 | −90.7% | −91.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −90.5% | −90.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-27 | −90.5% | −90.5% | +4.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-14 | +161.7% | +0.0% | +193.4% |
| 2020-07-16 | +159.6% | −2.9% | +184.9% |
| 2020-07-20 | +152.8% | −0.3% | +192.5% |
1,832 overlapping windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-06-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: The NODE-202 Study (Study of Etripamil Nasal Spray in Pediatric Patients) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Sale | 36,500 @ $2.26 | $82K | −7.6% of holding | −33.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 446,244 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Sale | 34,523 @ $1.93 | $67K | −6.7% of holding | −10.9% | −52.4% | 482,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Bharucha David | officer | Sale | 12,245 @ $1.93 | $24K | −9.8% of holding | −10.9% | −52.4% | 113,181 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Sale | 12,245 @ $1.93 | $24K | −19.7% of holding | −10.9% | −52.4% | 49,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hasija Amit | officer | Sale | 12,245 @ $1.93 | $24K | −10.9% of holding | −10.9% | −52.4% | 99,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Sale | 11,180 @ $1.93 | $22K | −5.2% of holding | −10.9% | −52.4% | 205,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Sale | 43,000 @ $2.25 | $97K | −12.4% of holding | −17.5% | −50.8% | 303,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.25 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −18.3% | −50.5% | 346,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Sale | 133,054 @ $2.32 | $309K | −22.8% of holding | −15.6% | −53.7% | 450,667 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Hasija Amit | officer | Sale | 58,007 @ $2.32 | $135K | −38.7% of holding | −15.6% | −53.7% | 91,993 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Bharucha David | officer | Sale | 58,007 @ $2.32 | $135K | −35.5% of holding | −15.6% | −53.7% | 105,326 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Sale | 58,007 @ $2.32 | $135K | −58.0% of holding | −15.6% | −53.7% | 41,993 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Sale | 53,566 @ $2.32 | $124K | −21.4% of holding | −15.6% | −53.7% | 196,486 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Fischer Seth H. Z. | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Duty Stuart | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Giles Lisa M. | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | TOMSICEK MICHAEL JOHN | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Saik Andrew | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Wills Robert James | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | PAPA JOSEPH C | director | Award / grant | 77,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Hasija Amit | officer | Award / grant | 204,000 | 204,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Award / grant | 204,000 | 204,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Award / grant | 136,000 | 136,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Award / grant | 453,000 | 453,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Award / grant | 679,000 | 679,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bharucha David | officer | Award / grant | 136,000 | 136,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bharucha David | officer | Award / grant | 204,000 | 204,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Award / grant | 136,000 | 136,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Award / grant | 204,000 | 204,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Hasija Amit | officer | Award / grant | 136,000 | 136,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 60,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hasija Amit | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 60,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Option exercise | 66,600 | 199,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Bharucha David | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 60,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 60,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Bharucha David | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 125,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 216,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hasija Amit | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 112,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 62,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Option exercise | 66,600 | 517,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 216,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Bharucha David | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 125,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 62,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Option exercise | 66,600 | 517,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hasija Amit | officer | Option exercise | 20,100 | 112,093 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Award / grant | 280,000 | 280,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Nelson Jeffrey Edward | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Bharucha David | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Hasija Amit | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Oliveto Joseph | director | Award / grant | 280,000 | 583,721 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Bharucha David | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 163,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Muller Lorenz | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 250,052 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.