MIDD · TickerCove

MIDDThe Middleby CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $112.31 · now $112.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MIDD has typically landed between $96.23 and $129.57 — a range of −14.3% to +15.4% from the issuance price $112.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($112.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$112.31 · 41% of range

$89.85 low$144.15 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 11.7%

−14.3%worst (p90)+15.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MIDD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $112.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $112.31 (+0.0%)
typical $111.55 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $104.97–$118.13
90% range $96.23–$129.57

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−60.3%	−60.3%	+4.2%
2020-02-20	−58.0%	−58.0%	+2.9%
2020-02-18	−56.7%	−56.7%	+2.7%
3 best
2009-03-04	+66.0%	+0.0%	+66.0%
2009-02-26	+62.2%	−2.1%	+65.0%
2009-02-25	+61.9%	−4.0%	+61.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+0.6%

n=20

Feb

70%

+4.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Apr

50%

+0.9%

n=20

May

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Jun

50%

+0.0%

n=20

Jul

70%

+3.6%

n=20

Aug

45%

+1.9%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.3%

n=20

Oct

60%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

65%

+5.7%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-15	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	14,740 @ $146.92	$2.2M	+0.4% of holding	−0.9%	+2.4%	3,379,737	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	28,089 @ $146.33	$4.1M	+0.8% of holding	+2.7%	+1.0%	3,349,248	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	15,749 @ $146.89	$2.3M	+0.5% of holding	+2.7%	+1.0%	3,364,997	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	24,732 @ $144.46	$3.6M	+0.8% of holding	+5.1%	+1.8%	3,311,704	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	10,138 @ $143.57	$1.5M	+0.3% of holding	+5.1%	+1.8%	3,286,972	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	8,109 @ $145.99	$1.2M	+0.2% of holding	+5.1%	+1.8%	3,321,159	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	1,346 @ $144.96	$195K	+0.0% of holding	+5.1%	+1.8%	3,313,050	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-09	Nerbonne Robert A	director	Purchase	780 @ $128.52	$100K	+3.8% of holding	+20.3%	+13.8%	21,471	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	75,003 @ $148.61	$11.1M	+2.4% of holding	−4.2%	−37.3%	3,249,687	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	27,147 @ $149.01	$4.0M	+0.8% of holding	−4.2%	−37.3%	3,276,834	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	18,482 @ $145.26	$2.7M	+0.6% of holding	−4.2%	−37.3%	3,158,316	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	8,414 @ $146.27	$1.2M	+0.3% of holding	−4.2%	−37.3%	3,166,730	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	7,954 @ $147.45	$1.2M	+0.3% of holding	−4.2%	−37.3%	3,174,684	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	621 @ $149.62	$93K	+0.0% of holding	−7.5%	−35.8%	3,139,834	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	10,902 @ $149.41	$1.6M	+0.3% of holding	−5.9%	−34.7%	3,139,213	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	2,575 @ $148.45	$382K	+0.1% of holding	−5.9%	−34.7%	3,128,311	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	37,473 @ $148.40	$5.6M	+1.2% of holding	−6.7%	−33.3%	3,125,736	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	206,274 @ $149.81	$30.9M	+7.2% of holding	−6.9%	−34.7%	3,088,263	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	27,592 @ $148.99	$4.1M	+1.0% of holding	−6.9%	−34.7%	2,881,989	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	15,473 @ $147.80	$2.3M	+0.5% of holding	−6.9%	−34.7%	2,854,397	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12	Scherger Stephen R.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $146.70	$293K	+89.0% of holding	−3.3%	−33.7%	4,248	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	120,916 @ $138.87	$16.8M	+4.6% of holding	−0.2%	−31.3%	2,756,782	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09	GARDEN EDWARD P	director	Purchase	82,142 @ $139.52	$11.5M	+3.0% of holding	−0.2%	−31.3%	2,838,924	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-03	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Sale	500 @ $163.51	$82K	−7.6% of holding	−1.9%	−25.3%	6,111	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

163 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Award / grant	558	9,287	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Award / grant	558	9,287	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Award / grant	558	9,287	Form 4
2026-08-26	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Award / grant	558	9,287	Form 4
2026-07-20	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Conversion	349	8,729	Form 4
2026-07-20	Scherger Stephen R.	director	Conversion	349	5,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Bowerman Julie	director	Conversion	349	2,618	Form 4
2026-07-20	Spittle Steve	officer	Conversion	1,823	56,414	Form 4
2026-07-20	OBRIEN GORDON	director	Conversion	349	17,864	Form 4
2026-07-20	Pool III James K	officer	Conversion	1,823	58,229	Form 4
2026-07-20	Cerwin Brittany C	officer	Conversion	877	21,980	Form 4
2026-07-20	Shah Tejas P.	director	Conversion	349	3,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Scherger Stephen R.	director	Conversion	349	5,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Shah Tejas P.	director	Conversion	349	3,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Cerwin Brittany C	officer	Conversion	877	21,980	Form 4
2026-07-20	EISENBERG GLENN A	director	Conversion	349	1,510	Form 4
2026-07-20	FITZGERALD TIMOTHY JOHN	director	Award / grant	4,455	350,833	Form 4
2026-07-20	Hix Christopher M	director	Conversion	349	1,510	Form 4
2026-07-20	Bowerman Julie	director	Conversion	349	2,618	Form 4
2026-07-20	Spittle Steve	officer	Conversion	1,823	56,414	Form 4
2026-07-20	Pool III James K	officer	Conversion	1,823	58,229	Form 4
2026-07-20	Cerwin Brittany C	officer	Conversion	877	21,980	Form 4
2026-07-20	Shah Tejas P.	director	Conversion	349	3,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	OBRIEN GORDON	director	Conversion	349	17,864	Form 4
2026-07-20	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Conversion	349	8,729	Form 4
2026-07-20	Pool III James K	officer	Conversion	1,823	58,229	Form 4
2026-07-20	Scherger Stephen R.	director	Conversion	349	5,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Shah Tejas P.	director	Conversion	349	3,758	Form 4
2026-07-20	Spittle Steve	officer	Conversion	1,823	56,414	Form 4
2026-07-20	Spittle Steve	officer	Conversion	1,823	56,414	Form 4
2026-07-20	OBRIEN GORDON	director	Conversion	349	17,864	Form 4
2026-07-20	Pool III James K	officer	Conversion	1,823	58,229	Form 4
2026-07-20	Bowerman Julie	director	Conversion	349	2,618	Form 4
2026-07-20	FITZGERALD TIMOTHY JOHN	director	Award / grant	4,455	350,833	Form 4
2026-07-20	EISENBERG GLENN A	director	Conversion	349	1,510	Form 4
2026-07-20	Cerwin Brittany C	officer	Conversion	877	21,980	Form 4
2026-07-20	FITZGERALD TIMOTHY JOHN	director	Award / grant	4,455	350,833	Form 4
2026-07-20	Cerwin Brittany C	officer	Conversion	877	21,980	Form 4
2026-07-20	EISENBERG GLENN A	director	Conversion	349	1,510	Form 4
2026-07-20	Palisi Chapin Sarah	director	Conversion	349	8,729	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i