Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.04 · now $38.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MIAX has typically landed between $32.70 and $46.41 — a range of −14.1% to +22.0% from the issuance price $38.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
253 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MIAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.71 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.36–$42.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.7–$46.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 253 windows spanning 2025-08-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-18 | −30.7% | −30.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | −30.4% | −30.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-20 | −29.5% | −29.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-14 | +28.7% | +0.0% | +28.7% |
| 2026-04-15 | +28.5% | −0.1% | +28.5% |
| 2026-03-30 | +27.0% | +0.0% | +27.0% |
253 overlapping windows · 2025-08-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−6.0%
n=1
Feb
100%
+2.1%
n=1
Mar
0%
−8.6%
n=1
Apr
100%
+19.5%
n=1
May
100%
+1.6%
n=1
Jun
0%
−21.4%
n=1
Jul
100%
+26.6%
n=1
Aug
0%
−8.9%
n=1
Sep
50%
−2.1%
n=2
Oct
100%
+8.5%
n=1
Nov
100%
+4.4%
n=1
Dec
0%
−2.7%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 47,000 @ $42.43 | $2.0M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,423,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $42.21 | $464K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $40.48 | $1.9M | −11.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 387,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 44,445 @ $40.49 | $1.8M | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 839,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 5,545 @ $41.58 | $231K | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $40.89 | $123K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 149,700 @ $41.13 | $6.2M | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,423,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Emmons Lance | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $42.83 | $1.5M | −28.8% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $42.85 | $214K | −5.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 48,334 @ $45.69 | $2.2M | −2.7% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $45.71 | $2.2M | −11.0% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 44,445 @ $45.69 | $2.0M | −4.8% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 882,984 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $45.90 | $918K | −20.4% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $45.78 | $504K | −8.4% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $45.79 | $137K | −4.0% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Sale | 1,063 @ $45.80 | $49K | −0.7% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,612 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $42.00 | $210K | −5.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $42.52 | $3.0M | −3.9% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 28,000 @ $41.98 | $1.2M | −3.1% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 882,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 28,228 @ $42.27 | $1.2M | −1.6% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 41,772 @ $42.09 | $1.8M | −2.4% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $42.12 | $842K | −20.4% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,065 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $42.13 | $674K | −4.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 353,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $42.04 | $462K | −8.4% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $41.22 | $2.0M | −11.0% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,414 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 28,000 @ $41.22 | $1.2M | −3.1% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 882,984 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Sale | 5,250 @ $39.35 | $207K | −3.4% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,612 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $40.00 | $120K | −3.8% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,251 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 4,714 @ $44.23 | $209K | −1.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Sale | 19,500 @ $41.73 | $814K | −19.3% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Sale | 9,783 @ $40.04 | $392K | −11.8% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Sale | 10,217 @ $40.12 | $410K | −12.2% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $42.36 | $3.0M | −3.9% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $42.84 | $2.1M | −10.8% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 28,000 @ $42.85 | $1.2M | −3.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 843,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $42.12 | $674K | −4.7% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $42.16 | $464K | −8.6% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Sale | 5,250 @ $42.76 | $224K | −3.6% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $42.78 | $128K | −4.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Emmons Lance | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $56.36 | $2.0M | −29.3% of holding | −29.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,262 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 15,771 @ $47.92 | $756K | −0.9% of holding | −21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 54,229 @ $47.26 | $2.6M | −3.1% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Sale | 48,000 @ $47.25 | $2.3M | −10.8% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 28,000 @ $47.26 | $1.3M | −3.2% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 843,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $47.28 | $756K | −4.7% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $47.28 | $520K | −8.6% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Sale | 5,625 @ $47.29 | $266K | −3.8% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $47.30 | $142K | −5.1% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 104,124 @ $43.36 | $4.5M | −5.7% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,723,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 70,001 @ $43.36 | $3.0M | −3.7% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,827,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Sale | 49,900 @ $43.68 | $2.2M | −9.3% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 485,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Sale | 29,667 @ $43.64 | $1.3M | −3.4% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 843,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 16,434 @ $42.08 | $692K | −4.8% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 7,572 @ $42.02 | $318K | −6.1% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 4,001 @ $42.00 | $168K | −3.3% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 900 @ $42.00 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 324,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Sale | 762 @ $42.00 | $32K | −0.7% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Brown Shelly | officer | Sale | 2,357 @ $41.33 | $97K | −0.7% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $40.00 | $108K | −4.4% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Teekell Judson Gray | director | Sale | 300 @ $40.00 | $12K | −0.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
234 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Brown Shelly | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,283 | 337,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 47,000 | 1,470,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 16,666 | 760,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 13,140 | 782,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 130,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 8,333 | 768,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 4,464 | 786,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 47,000 | 188,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 4,464 | 8,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 8,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 16,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 13,140 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 66,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Option exercise | 44,445 | 884,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 43,334 | 430,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 4,666 | 435,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 4,666 | 195,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 43,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Option exercise | 44,445 | 44,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Withheld for tax | 150,300 | 1,572,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,420 | 839,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 93,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 11,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 48,334 | 1,771,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 48,000 | 435,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Option exercise | 44,445 | 927,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Option exercise | 14,168 | 92,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 130,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Option exercise | 5,832 | 98,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Option exercise | 1,063 | 150,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Option exercise | 14,168 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 48,334 | 235,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Eckert Kurt M. | director | Option exercise | 1,063 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Schafer Douglas M. JR | officer | Option exercise | 48,000 | 43,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deitzel Edward | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 77,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Jayabalan Harish | officer | Option exercise | 5,832 | 17,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Comly Barbara J. | officer | Option exercise | 44,445 | 88,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 93,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Schwarzkopf Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 16,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gallagher Thomas P. | director | Option exercise | 70,000 | 1,793,275 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.