Issued 2026-09-16 at $140.48 · now $140.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MHO has typically landed between $120.37 and $167.87 — a range of −14.3% to +19.5% from the issuance price $140.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($140.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MHO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $140.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $140.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $142.08 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $132.23–$151.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $120.37–$167.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −77.0% | −77.0% | +1.6% |
| 2020-02-19 | −71.7% | −77.1% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-21 | −70.0% | −77.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-01-15 | +120.3% | +0.0% | +129.3% |
| 2009-03-31 | +118.5% | +0.0% | +118.5% |
| 2008-01-14 | +104.9% | −10.6% | +104.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+2.8%
n=20
Feb
35%
−3.1%
n=20
Mar
70%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+10.7%
n=20
May
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Jul
60%
+7.6%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
−3.1%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 6,588 @ $151.54 | $998K | −17.3% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 2,868 @ $150.53 | $432K | −7.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 544 @ $152.09 | $83K | −1.7% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $150.13 | $1.5M | −24.4% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $149.00 | $1.5M | −19.6% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $148.00 | $1.5M | −24.4% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $150.00 | $1.5M | −24.4% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 794 @ $125.28 | $99K | −43.6% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 477 @ $125.78 | $60K | −52.0% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 240 @ $125.79 | $30K | −54.5% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 100 @ $125.82 | $13K | −100.0% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 100 @ $125.80 | $13K | −50.0% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 100 @ $125.67 | $13K | −9.7% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 928 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 4 @ $125.75 | $503 | −0.4% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 4 @ $125.74 | $503 | −0.4% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Sale | 3 @ $125.72 | $377 | −0.3% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 2,205 @ $142.18 | $314K | −6.7% of holding | −9.2% | −5.4% | 30,918 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 661 @ $143.59 | $95K | −8.9% of holding | −10.0% | −6.1% | 6,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 16,354 @ $143.55 | $2.3M | −4.4% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 356,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 10,409 @ $145.30 | $1.5M | −2.9% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 345,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 1,805 @ $145.50 | $263K | −5.2% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 33,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 541 @ $146.68 | $79K | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 345,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 542 @ $145.50 | $79K | −6.8% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 7,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 304 @ $147.10 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 344,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HUNKER ANN MARIE | officer | Sale | 121 @ $145.50 | $18K | −3.5% of holding | −10.9% | −5.4% | 3,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 6,728 @ $149.30 | $1.0M | −16.1% of holding | −12.2% | −12.9% | 34,983 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 3,604 @ $148.75 | $536K | −8.0% of holding | −12.2% | −12.9% | 41,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 763 @ $148.13 | $113K | −8.7% of holding | −12.2% | −12.9% | 8,008 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 500 @ $147.19 | $74K | −1.1% of holding | −12.2% | −12.9% | 45,315 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 55 @ $150.30 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | −12.2% | −12.9% | 34,928 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 14,974 @ $146.80 | $2.2M | −4.1% of holding | −10.2% | −11.0% | 348,513 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 8,616 @ $146.80 | $1.3M | −15.8% of holding | −10.2% | −11.0% | 45,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 491 @ $146.80 | $72K | −5.3% of holding | −10.2% | −11.0% | 8,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | HUNKER ANN MARIE | officer | Sale | 132 @ $146.80 | $19K | −3.7% of holding | −10.2% | −11.0% | 3,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $144.47 | $2.9M | −6.0% of holding | −8.0% | −8.3% | 313,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 10,904 @ $134.00 | $1.5M | −28.7% of holding | +9.2% | +0.9% | 27,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $134.28 | $671K | −44.8% of holding | +8.0% | +0.9% | 6,167 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 96 @ $135.69 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | +8.0% | +0.9% | 27,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 21,522 @ $137.25 | $3.0M | −5.8% of holding | −0.7% | −6.4% | 350,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 12,610 @ $140.28 | $1.8M | −3.4% of holding | +1.2% | −6.1% | 360,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 4,734 @ $142.43 | $674K | −1.3% of holding | +1.2% | −6.1% | 351,157 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 4,351 @ $141.64 | $616K | −1.2% of holding | +1.2% | −6.1% | 355,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 829 @ $143.12 | $119K | −11.8% of holding | +1.2% | −6.1% | 6,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 783 @ $143.53 | $112K | −0.2% of holding | +1.2% | −6.1% | 350,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 2,152 @ $116.00 | $250K | −7.4% of holding | +4.5% | +11.6% | 27,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Sale | 3,716 @ $114.81 | $427K | −1.0% of holding | +9.0% | +15.6% | 350,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 1,859 @ $114.81 | $213K | −6.0% of holding | +9.0% | +15.6% | 29,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Sale | 374 @ $114.81 | $43K | −5.1% of holding | +9.0% | +15.6% | 6,996 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 4,582 @ $117.40 | $538K | −11.7% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 34,422 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 800 @ $117.45 | $94K | −2.4% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 32,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 527 @ $117.44 | $62K | −1.6% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 33,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 333 @ $117.41 | $39K | −1.0% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 34,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.55 | $24K | −0.6% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 31,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.47 | $23K | −0.6% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 32,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.27 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 39,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.18 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 39,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.17 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 39,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.15 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 39,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.09 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 40,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Sale | 200 @ $117.04 | $23K | −0.5% of holding | +5.2% | +14.6% | 40,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Award / grant | 215 | 3,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 40,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 42,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 50,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 12,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 37,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 40,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 40,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Award / grant | 256 | 3,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 11,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Walker Kumi D | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 14,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Smith Eugene Dubois | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 1,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Brown Yvette McGee | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 3,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | GLIMCHER MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 15,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Ingram Elizabeth K | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 15,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Option exercise | 1,822 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 13,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Walker Kumi D | director | Option exercise | 455 | 1,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Walker Kumi D | director | Option exercise | 455 | 455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Option exercise | 1,822 | 1,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Walker Kumi D | director | Option exercise | 455 | 455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Option exercise | 1,822 | 1,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Option exercise | 824 | 824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Option exercise | 824 | 824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Option exercise | 824 | 3,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Option exercise | 824 | 3,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Option exercise | 24,000 | 372,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Option exercise | 24,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Award / grant | 25,540 | 339,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Award / grant | 15,324 | 42,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SOLL BRUCE A | director | Award / grant | 223 | 3,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Krohne Susan E | officer | Award / grant | 3,095 | 9,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Award / grant | 24,073 | 363,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | HUNKER ANN MARIE | officer | Award / grant | 1,031 | 3,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | CREEK PHILLIP G | director | Award / grant | 12,036 | 54,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 333,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.