Issued 2026-09-16 at $127.70 · now $127.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MHK has typically landed between $107.45 and $149.37 — a range of −15.9% to +17.0% from the issuance price $127.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($127.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MHK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $127.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $127.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $126.92 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.5–$136.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.45–$149.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −56.3% | −56.3% | +0.6% |
| 2020-02-21 | −53.1% | −56.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-09 | +86.0% | +0.0% | +100.2% |
| 2009-03-06 | +85.3% | −6.2% | +87.8% |
| 2009-03-05 | +80.7% | −9.7% | +80.7% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 38,250 @ $127.18 | $4.9M | −32.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $127.18 | $954K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 385,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 19,041 @ $126.84 | $2.4M | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,759 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 3,419 @ $126.84 | $434K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 392,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 315 @ $126.84 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 434,026 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 84 @ $127.52 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,675 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 15 @ $127.52 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 392,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 1 @ $127.52 | $128 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 434,025 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $139.48 | $139K | −14.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Thiers Bernard | director | Sale | 13,393 @ $134.98 | $1.8M | −12.5% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 9,720 @ $130.70 | $1.3M | −48.6% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 9,024 @ $132.91 | $1.2M | −2.2% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 396,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 8,179 @ $130.99 | $1.1M | −2.0% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 409,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 7,000 @ $131.52 | $921K | −49.5% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 6,877 @ $132.91 | $914K | −1.6% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 434,341 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 6,233 @ $130.99 | $816K | −1.4% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 3,986 @ $132.03 | $526K | −1.0% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 405,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 3,392 @ $130.26 | $442K | −0.8% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 417,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 3,038 @ $132.03 | $401K | −0.7% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 2,585 @ $130.26 | $337K | −0.6% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 450,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 2,116 @ $132.91 | $281K | −2.6% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 1,918 @ $130.99 | $251K | −2.3% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 935 @ $132.03 | $123K | −1.1% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 795 @ $130.26 | $104K | −0.9% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,594 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 280 @ $131.33 | $37K | −2.7% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Repp David Lee | officer | Sale | 225 @ $130.59 | $29K | −11.2% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 4,600 @ $113.07 | $520K | −24.6% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,132 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $113.98 | $342K | −13.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $113.30 | $340K | −12.1% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $113.17 | $340K | −10.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $111.27 | $334K | −9.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $111.17 | $334K | −8.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 2,000 @ $113.04 | $226K | −5.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $112.68 | $338K | −7.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,732 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 2,750 @ $111.26 | $306K | −11.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $113.37 | $198K | −8.0% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 890 @ $112.20 | $100K | −2.2% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,852 @ $108.02 | $200K | −4.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,622 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 500 @ $110.00 | $55K | −2.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 2,800 @ $106.01 | $297K | −6.1% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,905 @ $105.10 | $200K | −4.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,870 @ $107.01 | $200K | −4.3% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,887 @ $106.06 | $200K | −3.8% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 957 @ $104.83 | $100K | −1.9% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $105.53 | $528K | −16.7% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $96.43 | $96K | −1.9% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $96.23 | $96K | −1.9% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $95.90 | $96K | −1.9% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 2,000 @ $97.68 | $195K | −3.5% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $98.03 | $98K | −1.8% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $105.08 | $105K | −1.7% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $104.51 | $105K | −1.7% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,000 @ $103.16 | $103K | −1.6% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 500 @ $103.46 | $52K | −0.8% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 500 @ $103.44 | $52K | −0.8% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,042 @ $109.39 | $114K | −1.7% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,924 @ $104.35 | $201K | −2.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 1,862 @ $103.55 | $193K | −2.8% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 940 @ $107.41 | $101K | −1.5% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HELEN SUZANNE L | other | Sale | 932 @ $107.94 | $101K | −1.5% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Coni Claudio | officer | Withheld for tax | 123 | 8,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | De Cock Paul F | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,565 | 89,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brunk James | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,213 | 32,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brunk James | officer | Award / grant | 9,090 | 33,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Manthey Nicholas P. | officer | Award / grant | 4,545 | 24,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Disposition | 3,100 | 30,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Disposition | 500 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | De Cock Paul F | officer | Other acquisition | 117 | 91,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | WELLBORN CHISTOPHER | director | Other acquisition | 465 | 211,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Patton Rodney David | officer | Other acquisition | 167 | 21,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Brunk James | officer | Other acquisition | 218 | 24,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Coni Claudio | officer | Other acquisition | 44 | 8,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Maynard Malisa | officer | Other acquisition | 21 | 1,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Vandini Mauro | officer | Other acquisition | 48 | 37,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Other acquisition | 533 | 85,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | WELLBORN CHISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 364 | 211,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Withheld for tax | 1,541 | 85,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | WELLBORN CHISTOPHER | director | Withheld for tax | 1,179 | 211,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Patton Rodney David | officer | Withheld for tax | 922 | 21,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | De Cock Paul F | officer | Withheld for tax | 708 | 91,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Brunk James | officer | Withheld for tax | 660 | 24,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Maynard Malisa | officer | Withheld for tax | 34 | 1,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Repp David Lee | officer | Withheld for tax | 32 | 2,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Repp David Lee | officer | Award / grant | 1,044 | 2,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Coni Claudio | officer | Award / grant | 1,839 | 8,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Award / grant | 19,387 | 87,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | De Cock Paul F | officer | Award / grant | 14,906 | 91,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Walma Kenneth | officer | Award / grant | 5,594 | 27,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Maynard Malisa | officer | Award / grant | 483 | 1,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Vandini Mauro | officer | Award / grant | 9,416 | 37,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Brunk James | officer | Award / grant | 8,292 | 29,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Patton Rodney David | officer | Award / grant | 6,046 | 22,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | WELLBORN CHISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 5,454 | 212,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | LORBERBAUM JEFFREY S | director | Withheld for tax | 3,103 | 68,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | WELLBORN CHISTOPHER | director | Withheld for tax | 2,221 | 206,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | De Cock Paul F | officer | Withheld for tax | 905 | 76,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Brunk James | officer | Withheld for tax | 840 | 21,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Patton Rodney David | officer | Withheld for tax | 568 | 16,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Coni Claudio | officer | Withheld for tax | 79 | 6,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Maynard Malisa | officer | Withheld for tax | 59 | 1,258 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.