MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.10 · now $26.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGY has typically landed between $22.57 and $30.24 — a range of −13.5% to +15.9% from the issuance price $26.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,295 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-06-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MGY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.57worst · -13.5%$30.24best · +15.9%
  • now $26.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.34 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.84–$27.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.57–$30.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,295 windows spanning 2017-06-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−63.2%−63.2%+1.0%
2020-02-14−62.4%−62.4%+0.0%
2020-02-13−57.7%−57.7%+1.8%
3 best
2020-11-06+79.6%+0.0%+79.6%
2020-11-04+78.9%−0.3%+78.9%
2020-11-05+77.5%+0.0%+79.4%

2,295 overlapping windows · 2017-06-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+4.5%
n=9
Feb
67%
+3.7%
n=9
Mar
67%
−0.9%
n=9
Apr
33%
+4.4%
n=9
May
56%
−0.3%
n=9
Jun
67%
+2.1%
n=9
Jul
60%
+3.1%
n=10
Aug
60%
+3.2%
n=10
Sep
40%
−1.8%
n=10
Oct
33%
−0.2%
n=9
Nov
56%
+6.1%
n=9
Dec
33%
−1.3%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$212026-09-01: 1 insider purchase, $1K — Khani David M.2026-08-07: 2 insider purchases, $323K — Khani David M., Ropp Ralph Lewis2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Szabo Shandell2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $375K — Szabo Shandell2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $522K — DJEREJIAN EDWARD P2026-03-09: 5 insider sales, $9.9M — Yang Timothy D., Stavros Christopher G, Corales Brian, Acosta Arcilia …2025-11-11: 1 insider purchase, $104K — Ropp Ralph Lewis2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $104K2026-03: 7 open-market sales, $10.8M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $323K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $1K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Khani David M. — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Khani David M. — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ropp Ralph Lewis — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Szabo Shandell — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Szabo Shandell — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DJEREJIAN EDWARD P — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yang Timothy D. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Stavros Christopher G — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Corales Brian — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Acosta Arcilia — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH DAN F — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ropp Ralph Lewis — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Khani David M.directorPurchase54 @ $26.78$1K+0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open30,676Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Khani David M.directorPurchase8,000 @ $25.00$200K+35.4% of holding+11.1%not yet — horizon still open30,622Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07Ropp Ralph LewisdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $24.63$123K+23.8% of holding+11.1%not yet — horizon still open26,007Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01Szabo ShandelldirectorPurchase86 @ $27.44$2K+0.4% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open20,710Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-30Szabo ShandelldirectorSale11,731 @ $31.98$375K−45.1% of holding−18.5%not yet — horizon still open14,304Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10DJEREJIAN EDWARD PdirectorSale18,000 @ $28.98$522K−14.0% of holding+2.5%−15.2%110,425Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Yang Timothy D.officerSale150,000 @ $29.29$4.4M−22.2% of holding+2.8%−17.9%526,661Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Stavros Christopher GdirectorSale119,954 @ $29.29$3.5M−12.0% of holding+2.8%−17.9%883,592Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Corales BrianofficerSale33,000 @ $29.12$961K−15.2% of holding+2.8%−17.9%184,178Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Acosta ArciliadirectorSale19,235 @ $29.10$560K−13.0% of holding+2.8%−17.9%128,249Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09SMITH DAN FdirectorSale18,000 @ $29.01$522K−13.1% of holding+2.8%−17.9%119,204Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Ropp Ralph LewisdirectorPurchase4,500 @ $23.10$104K+44.2% of holding−1.5%+17.2%14,687Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Szabo ShandelldirectorPurchase11,731 @ $21.30$250K+184.3% of holding+0.9%−14.1%18,095Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-03Stavros Christopher GdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $22.05$55K+0.3% of holding+18.2%+4.6%892,372Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant80134,721Form 4
2026-06-01Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant72134,641Form 4
2026-05-08DJEREJIAN EDWARD PdirectorAward / grant6,320116,745Form 4
2026-05-08LARSON JAMES RdirectorAward / grant6,32097,295Form 4
2026-05-08Khani David M.directorAward / grant6,32022,622Form 4
2026-05-08Szabo ShandelldirectorAward / grant6,32020,624Form 4
2026-05-08Ropp Ralph LewisdirectorAward / grant6,32021,007Form 4
2026-05-08SMITH DAN FdirectorAward / grant8,028127,232Form 4
2026-05-08Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant6,320134,569Form 4
2026-03-02Stavros Christopher GdirectorWithheld for tax42,8631,003,546Form 4
2026-03-02Corales BrianofficerWithheld for tax15,916217,178Form 4
2026-03-02Yang Timothy D.officerWithheld for tax15,156676,661Form 4
2026-03-02Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant69147,484Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorDisposition54,301925,306Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerDisposition24,766649,695Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorWithheld for tax21,368979,607Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerDisposition15,854193,078Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerWithheld for tax9,746674,461Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerWithheld for tax6,239208,932Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorAward / grant121,102121,102Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorOption exercise108,6030Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerAward / grant42,122691,817Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerAward / grant40,016233,094Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorAward / grant121,1031,046,409Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerAward / grant40,01640,016Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerOption exercise31,7080Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerAward / grant42,12242,122Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerOption exercise49,5320Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerOption exercise49,532684,207Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerOption exercise31,708215,171Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorOption exercise108,6031,000,975Form 4
2026-02-05Corales BrianofficerOption exercise31,708215,171Form 4
2026-02-05Stavros Christopher GdirectorOption exercise108,6031,000,975Form 4
2026-02-05Yang Timothy D.officerOption exercise49,532684,207Form 4
2025-12-01Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant76147,415Form 4
2025-09-02Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant71147,339Form 4
2025-06-02Acosta ArciliadirectorAward / grant81147,268Form 4
2025-05-07SMITH DAN FdirectorAward / grant11,549137,204Form 4
2025-05-07Szabo ShandelldirectorAward / grant7,94026,035Form 4
2025-05-07DJEREJIAN EDWARD PdirectorAward / grant7,940128,425Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.